Michael Lasker, a talent manager at Mosaic and an Oscar enthusiast, shares his insights on the excitement surrounding the 2025 Oscars. He dives into the hotly contested Best Picture race and discusses how recent controversies, particularly around 'Emilia Perez,' might influence outcomes. Lasker compares Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet's chances, while also analyzing potential surprises from Fernanda Torres and Jeremy Strong. The conversation uncovers trends in Oscar voting patterns, making predictions for Best Actor and Best International Film even more intriguing.
The podcast highlights the fluctuating dynamics of Oscar predictions, focusing on the importance of past performances and industry trends for betting strategies.
Challenges in the film industry are discussed, particularly how quick theatrical releases hinder audience engagement and box office success for potential award contenders.
Deep dives
Launch of Good Hang Podcast
Amy Poehler introduces her new podcast, Good Hang, emphasizing the importance of authenticity and the value of being oneself as a host. She shares advice she's received from friends, suggesting that a genuine approach will attract guests and listeners alike. Poehler hints at her personal interests in true crime and cooking, sparking curiosity about how these themes might intertwine in her podcast. The podcast aims to offer lighthearted content amidst a chaotic world, appealing to a broad audience looking for entertainment.
Oscar Week Insights
Oscar week is highlighted, showcasing a mix of excitement and skepticism about this year's nominations and potential winners. Poehler discusses attending the Academy's nominees dinner, reflecting on the emotional significance of the awards for the filmmakers, especially those not widely recognized by the public. Various betting odds are examined, revealing fluctuating favorites and underdogs in the race for Best Picture, with Anaura being a strong contender. The conversation illustrates the dynamics and strategies surrounding Oscar predictions, emphasizing how past performances influence current odds.
Betting Strategies for the Oscars
The discussion turns to betting on the Oscars, specifically looking at insights from Michael Lasker, who has a track record of successfully predicting winners. The conversation highlights key categories such as Best Picture and Best Director, where Anora and Baker are current favorites, despite potential surprises in other categories. Lasker emphasizes the importance of analyzing past award trends and current sentiments among Academy voters when making betting decisions. The episode offers listeners a blend of entertainment and practical advice on how to navigate the Oscar betting landscape.
Challenges Facing Oscar Releases
The podcast addresses ongoing challenges in the film industry, particularly regarding release strategies and how they affect box office performance. Discussions point out that many acclaimed films are exiting theaters too quickly for audiences to engage fully with them, resulting in limited box office success. The impact of such strategies undermines the potential for films to gain momentum as award season approaches, evidenced by current Oscar favorites underperforming at the box office. The hosts express concern about the future of film releases, particularly for independent films, emphasizing the need for a balance between streaming and theatrical showings.
Matt is joined by Mosaic talent manager and Oscar enthusiast Michael Lasker to parse through the award season chatter and find a gambling edge on the Academy Awards. Matt and Michael discuss the wide-open races in the top categories—including Best Picture—as well as how many Oscars ‘Emilia Perez’ might win following Karla Sofía Gascón’s Twitter controversy, Adrien Brody vs. Timothée Chalamet, and the potential upset chances for Fernanda Torres and Jeremy Strong (02:32).
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