In this discussion, Josh Keating, a senior correspondent at Vox specializing in foreign affairs, dives into the unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by Syrian rebels. He highlights the rapid territorial gains in major cities and the surprising dynamics at play. Keating explains the shifting alliances in the conflict, notably the waning support from Iran and Russia. He also addresses the transformation of militant groups into governing bodies and the geopolitical significance of Syria, probing how these changes could reshape the region's future.
The rapid ousting of Assad's regime by Syrian rebels signifies a major shift in regional power dynamics after a decade of civil war.
The rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a leading rebel force presents both challenges and opportunities for governance in post-Assad Syria.
Deep dives
The Surge of Syrian Rebels and the Fall of Assad
In a surprising turn of events, Syrian rebels rapidly advanced across the country, leading to the fall of President Bashar al-Assad after a decade-long civil war. Within days, key cities such as Aleppo and Damascus were taken, marking a significant shift in political power. The ease of this takeover, with Assad's forces seemingly surrendering without intense fighting, highlights the regime's weakened state, which had once seemed secure. This unexpected quick chain of events has led to a sense of unprecedented hope among many Syrians, as they witness the dismantling of a regime that had ruled for over 50 years.
Changing Dynamics in Global Conflict and Support
The recent escalation in Syria has been influenced by broader global conflicts, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has shifted the focus and military resources of Russia and Iran. As Iranian support for Assad diminishes and Syrian rebel forces gain ground, the dynamics of power in the region are changing. Unlike previous conflicts where U.S. military intervention was prominent, the current rebel advancement is driven internally, raising questions about international influence and engagement in Syria. This significant development suggests that other conflicts in the region may feel ripple effects as the balance of power shifts away from Assad's regime.
Future Implications and Complexities of Syrian Governance
The emergence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as a leading rebel organization highlights the complexities of governance in a post-Assad Syria. Originally affiliated with Al-Qaeda, HTS has rebranded itself and claims to adopt a more moderate stance while maintaining hardline Islamist values, raising concerns about potential governance and respect for diverse populations. As they consolidate power, questions linger regarding how the group will manage relations with various ethnic and religious communities within Syria. This scenario poses risks and opportunities for a more representative governance structure, potentially impacting both domestic and regional stability.
After more than a decade of civil war, Syrian rebels have toppled President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in just about a week. How was the dictator finally deposed, and what comes next for the war-torn country?
Guest: Josh Keating, senior correspondent at Vox covering foreign policy.
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Podcast production by Elena Schwartz, Paige Osburn, Anna Phillips, Madeline Ducharme and Rob Gunther.