The KE Report Marc Chandler - Jobs Weakness Continues, Inflation Data Next, Rate Cuts Coming, Global Considerations
Sep 5, 2025
Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of Marc to Market, dives into the latest U.S. jobs data, revealing signs of labor market weakness since the pandemic. He discusses how the Federal Reserve is navigating the tricky balance of weak jobs and persistent inflation, and speculates on upcoming rate cuts. The conversation also touches on the potential for a U.S. dollar rebound and examines global economic challenges, including Canada’s shaky data and political tensions in Europe.
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Labor Market Weakness And Revisions
- The U.S. labor market is weakening, with only 22,000 nonfarm payrolls added in August and significant downward benchmark revisions expected.
- Marc Chandler warns these revisions could remove roughly 550k–950k jobs and reinforce the view of a cooling labor market.
Fed Faces Diverging Jobs And Inflation
- Diverging trends complicate Fed policy: weakening jobs but rising price pressures from CPI risks.
- Chandler expects the Fed to prefer a cautious 25 bps cut rather than a disruptive 50 bps move.
Position For Gradual Easing
- Expect the Fed to tolerate slightly higher inflation as labor market weakness reduces corporate pricing power over time.
- Prepare for a series of rate cuts that remove restrictiveness rather than signal full easing.