This is How GEOPOLITICS Really Works | Rajiv Sikri, Ex-IFS Officer on Power, Trade & War

Aug 22, 2025

Rajiv Sikri, a former diplomat with 36 years in the Indian Foreign Service, shares his expert insights into today's shifting global power dynamics. He discusses how the U.S. remains the single great power while its tariff policies are reshaping global trade, challenging nations like India. The conversation delves into the implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict for global security and India's unique positioning. Additionally, Sikri highlights the rising alliance between China and Pakistan and warns of the potential for regional conflicts with global ramifications.

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INSIGHT

US Still Holds Unmatched Global Levers

The United States remains the only true great power because it has unmatched economic, military, technological, and soft-power instruments.
Its dollar-based financial dominance gives it leverage via sanctions, but cautious de-dollarization is slowly emerging.

INSIGHT

WTO Rules Have Broken Down

Rajiv Sikri argues the WTO system has effectively collapsed as key dispute mechanisms were disabled and MFN principles eroded.
He says this collapse has opened the door to targeted tariffs and bilateral trade manipulation.

INSIGHT

Tariffs Burden Consumers, Not Just Exporters

Tariffs on imports raise consumer prices because importers ultimately pass costs to domestic buyers, not just foreign producers.
Sikri doubts broad tariffs will help the U.S. and warns they will reshape global trade patterns.

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The 21st century has shattered old assumptions about diplomacy.

Relationships between nations are no longer guided by ideology or morality, but driven by pragmatism and national interest.

This week, former diplomat Rajiv Sikri who served 36 years in the Indian Foreign Service, offers a deep dive into how global power dynamics are shifting.

We discuss why the United States still remains the only true great power, yet its tariff policies are reshaping global trade and forcing countries like India to rethink their strategies.

And explores how the Russia–Ukraine conflict has reshaped security and political choices. For India, Russia remains a vital partner, while Europe has chosen to cut ties despite its heavy dependence on Russian energy and Britain continues to commit billions to Ukraine even with its own economy struggling. Rajiv also examines China’s growing alignment with Pakistan and what this means for India’s long-term security and economic positioning.

Rajiv also argues that a future global conflict may not involve every country, but rather regional conflicts with worldwide consequences.
This episode provides a clear-eyed analysis of global diplomacy; its complexities, evolving alignments, and the choices India faces in navigating an increasingly multipolar world.

0:00 – Why US remains the world’s true great power
3:35 – Has the WTO collapsed?
5:23 – How US Tariffs have destabilised the world
7:12 – Can India become an Agri-exporter?
11:32 – Why Trump puts the MAGA base first
13:21 – The Russia-Ukraine war explained
22:24 – Diplomatic relationships are no longer based on ideology
25:22 – Why Europe cutting ties with Russia may backfire
27:52 – Why Britain funds Ukraine despite its weak economy
29:57 – Did Operation Sindhoor reveal open Chinese support to Pakistan?
33:32 – What China risks from India’s rise?
37:24 – Why morality doesn’t exist in global politics
38:30 – Will China’s attitude towards India change?
39:28 – How China dominates global manufacturing
44:40 – Why global investors should bet on India
49:20 – Israel’s War Acts
53:17 – How will WW3 actually be?
56:07 – Can the world create an organisation not dominated by the West?
59:29 – Why India must act cold-blooded in its national interest
1:01:13 – Are India’s global moves headed in the right direction?
1:03:43 – Lessons from 36 years as a diplomat
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This video is for informational purposes only. The views expressed are those of the individuals quoted and do not constitute professional advice.

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