Russia loses 'vital' naval bases in Syria as Assad falls & Trump meets Zelensky at Paris's Notre-Dame
Dec 9, 2024
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Jacob Heilbrunn, Editor of The National Interest and author of 'America Last', discusses the allure of authoritarian leaders to the political right. He explores the implications of Assad's fall on Russia's power and Ukraine's fortunes. The meeting between Zelensky and Trump at Notre-Dame signifies potential shifts in peace negotiations. Heilbrunn delves into conservatives' historical isolationism and their complex relationship with dictatorship, shedding light on how these dynamics shape current geopolitical landscapes.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad significantly undermines Russia's influence in the Middle East, raising questions about its global reliability.
Intensified Russian operations in Ukraine illustrate the ongoing conflict's brutal nature, despite Ukrainian advances and new military capabilities.
The meeting between Trump and Zelensky signals a potential shift in U.S. strategy towards Ukraine, introducing new avenues for peace negotiations.
Deep dives
Geopolitical Implications of Assad's Fall
The recent collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is a significant event with far-reaching geopolitical implications for Russia and Ukraine. The Kremlin's support for Assad has been crucial, providing military bases and projecting Russian influence in the Middle East. With Assad's departure, Russia faces a humiliation that could destabilize its stance in the region, as the loss of its ally raises questions about Moscow's reliability and future partnerships. This shift may encourage other countries to rethink their alliances with Russia, impacting its global validity and military strategies.
Updates on Military Engagements
Despite heavy losses, Russian forces have intensified their offensive operations in Ukraine, targeting the Donbass region, particularly the town of Prokhovsk. Their strategy entails flanking Ukrainian defenses from various directions, highlighting the ongoing intensity of the conflict. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are making some incremental advances and unveiling new weaponry, such as the Peklo drone, capable of striking targets 430 miles away, signaling a drive to bolster domestic military capabilities amid slow Western arms deliveries. The evolving combat landscape demonstrates the relentless nature of the war, with both sides seeking tactical advantages.
Diplomatic Developments in Ukraine
A noteworthy diplomatic encounter occurred during a visit by former President Trump with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Paris, which signals a potential shift in U.S. involvement in Ukraine. Trump's willingness to discuss a peace deal marks a change in tone in Ukrainian wartime strategy, indicating a readiness to negotiate, contrasting previous hardline stances. The revelation of casualty figures, notably a claim of 400,000 Ukrainian losses, adds a stark sense of urgency to the peace discussions. This diplomatic pivot may influence future U.S. support for Ukraine, particularly in light of waning public patience for the prolonged conflict.
Romania recently forfeited its presidential runoff elections due to allegations of Russian interference, exemplifying Moscow's broader strategy to destabilize Eastern Europe through hybrid tactics. The Romanian Central Election Court cited manipulation by pro-Russian factions that utilized social media platforms to sway voter sentiment. This unprecedented decision highlights the vulnerability of democracies to external influence, raising alarms about the integrity of electoral processes in the region. It underscores the urgent need for nations to safeguard their electoral systems against foreign meddling, which could embolden similar tactics elsewhere.
The Intersection of Dictatorships and Western Politics
The discussion on why certain political figures in the U.S. express admiration for authoritarian leaders sheds light on the complexities of Western political ideologies. The notion that dictators provide easy answers to societal problems appeals to segments of the political right, transcending historical contexts from World War I to the modern era. This sentiment manifests in contemporary politics as some embrace isolationism and express skepticism towards international interventions while praising strongman tactics abroad. The dialogue emphasizes the need to critically evaluate the allure of authoritarianism, especially in light of historical lessons regarding democracy, human rights, and global stability.
Today, following historic, impromptu meetings at the reopening of Notre-Dame in Paris - including between President Zelensky and President-elect Trump - we dig into the significance of Bashar al Assad's fall for Russia and Ukraine. And we interview author Jacob Heilbrunn about why some on the political right are sometimes attracted to the easy answers that dictators provide.
Contributors:
Venetia Rainey (Co-host Battle Lines podcast). @venetiarainey on X.
Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.
James Kilner (Foreign Correspondent). @jkjourno on X.
With thanks to Jacob Heilbrunn (Editor, The National Interest). @JacobHeilbrunn on X.
Content Referenced:
How Russia is expanding its military foothold in Africa