Exploring the theory of living in a simulation, critiquing Bayesian probability theory, and discussing the challenges of ancestor simulations. Delving into the likelihood of existing in a simulation world and the importance of being challenged. Analyzing Bostrom's Simulation Argument and the relationship between simulated and real individuals.
Creating indistinguishable ancestor simulations may be impossible due to computing power and complexity.
Circular reasoning undermines the validity of the simulation argument.
Challenges and uncertainties make it unlikely that we live in a simulation.
Deep dives
Arguments against the feasibility of ancestor simulations
One objection to the simulation argument is that creating ancestor simulations that are indistinguishable from reality may be impossible or extremely difficult due to the computing power and complexity required. The idea of simulating the entire universe, including all particles and quantum events, raises questions about the feasibility and accuracy of such simulations. Additionally, the moral implications of creating conscious beings solely for the purpose of a simulation are also raised as a concern.
Circularity of the simulation argument
Another criticism of the simulation argument is that it appears to be circular reasoning. The argument relies on the assumption that simulations are possible and that civilizations would have a strong interest in creating ancestor simulations. However, these assumptions are based on our own understanding and technology, which is derived from the reality we currently inhabit. This circularity raises doubts about the validity of the argument.
Challenges to the revised versions of the simulation argument
While the simulation argument has been revised over time to address criticisms, there are still challenges to its claims. Some argue that the revised versions of the argument rely on vague and subjective probability assignments, which detract from their persuasiveness. Additionally, mathematical analyses have shown that the revised argument may not be as strong as initially suggested. These challenges cast further doubt on the likelihood of living in a simulation.
The complexity of base reality
Even if one were to accept the possibility of living in a simulation, it raises the question of what constitutes the base reality or the real universe. If the base reality is vastly more complex and technologically advanced than our current understanding, it becomes difficult to discern the true nature of our existence. This suggests that the distinction between simulation and base reality may become irrelevant.
The conclusion: We are not living in a simulation
Considering the various objections and challenges to the simulation argument, it becomes increasingly unlikely that we are living in a simulation. The feasibility of creating indistinguishable ancestor simulations, the circularity of the argument, and the subjective nature of probability assignments all contribute to the conclusion that our reality is likely the base reality.
THE SIMULATION SERIES FINALE! After much philosophy and physics reading, and after the excellent breakdown of the physics and computing aspects by Dr. Bryan Gillis, here is an episode on why I don't think we live in a simulation. I'm hoping this will be an accessible final episode to sum up the case for why we should not be worrying about this!
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