Orlando Sonza fighting for Ohio and Jason Willick on the Trump Indictments

Welcome back to another episode of Breaking Battlegrounds. First up is Orlando Sonza, a U.S. Army Veteran and dedicated Ohioan running in Ohio's First Congressional District. Raised in New Jersey and a West Point graduate, Orlando's journey is a testament to his diverse background and commitment to service. Our second guest is Jason Willick, an Opinion columnist at The Washington Post where he primarily writes about legal matters, political ideas, and foreign affairs. In this episode, he delves into the timely topic of Hunter Biden and the Trump indictments. Don't miss this engaging conversation that brings thought-provoking insights and expert analysis to the forefront.

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Orlando Sonza is a proud Ohioan. A second generation Filipino American, Orlando was raised in New Jersey and attended the United States Military Academy at West Point. While there he met his wife, Jessica, a Mexican/Filipino American, fellow Academy classmate, and Cincinnati native.

Orlando graduated top ten in his class at West Point where he majored in political science and minored in systems engineering. Upon graduation, he and Jessica both commissioned as second lieutenants in the U.S. Army. Orlando served on active duty as an Infantry Officer and Finance Officer with the 3rd Infantry Division at Fort Stewart, Georgia.

Jason Willick writes a regular Washington Post column on legal issues, political ideas and foreign affairs. Before coming to The Post in 2022, he was an editorial writer and assistant editorial features editor for the Wall Street Journal, and before that a staff writer and associate editor at the American Interest.

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Transcription

Sam Stone: Welcome to another episode of Breaking Battlegrounds with your host, Sam Stone, Chuck Warren out of the studio for the moment. He will be joining us, we hope, within a few minutes. But we wanted to get rolling with our first guest today, frankly, because he has an amazing background. I'm really looking forward to chatting with Orlando, Sonza, candidate for Ohio's first congressional district and proud Ohioan, second generation Filipino American, raised in New Jersey, attended West Point, graduated top ten in his class, majoring in science, majored in political science, minored in systems engineering. So folks, this guy is no dummy. That is for sure. Orlando, Sonza, welcome to the program.

Orlando Sonza: Sam, Thanks for having me. I appreciate it. Great to be here.

Sam Stone: So what made you decide to go to West Point or to try to go that route?

Orlando Sonza: Yeah. You know, I always knew, I think early on in my life that I wanted to join the army. I mean, call it whether it was playing Army men as I was a little kid or that.

Sam Stone: Now are we talking about the little green plastic guys or did you have the metal ones? That's right.

Orlando Sonza: Oh, no, no. It's definitely the little green guys, you know, kicking it back old school, too. Toy Story one, you know, to to those guys. But no, there was a fateful trip that my family and I took. I remember distinctly when I was in eighth grade, of course, growing up in New Jersey, I was just an hour away from Bear Mountain, West Point country. And so we went up there and I saw the cadets in uniform. I saw them marching. I looked out over the Hudson River and I was like, this is the place where I'm going to, this is where I'm going to. And so I made it my commitment. And, you know, I was involved with Junior ROTC in high school, and that kind of just charted the path. And that's how I ended up at the at the academy now.

Sam Stone: So because a lot of us out here are dummies, what exactly is systems engineering?

Orlando Sonza: So systems engineering, you know, is another name for it is industrial engineering. At at West Point every cadet had to minor in an engineering, whether it was nuclear engineering, mechanical, electrical. I didn't know that love kind of. Yeah, yeah. So I really gravitated towards problem solving. And really that's all systems engineering. Industrial engineering is it's how do you solve complex problems, whether it's in business or in manufacturing. And so that's what I chose, not just me, but actually my wife. I don't know if you knew this, Sam, but.

Sam Stone: Folks. Sorry about that. We had a very short technical glitch. We are continuing on with candidate or Lanzo Sansa running for Ohio's first Congressional District, Orlando. When we rudely technologically disconnected you there briefly, you were telling us your wife also, I think, actually went to West Point. So this is an amazing family.

Orlando Sonza: Yeah, that's right. I mean, look, public service and servant leadership that's in our blood. I mean, that's in the signs of blood, whether it's it's me and my story. But my wife, too, is an incredible person because she grew up in Cincinnati, you know, native here in southwest Ohio. And she also found her way to the academy. And that's where we met. We were classmates. We commission together. We graduated together. We served our country for about five years together. And yeah, we're my best friend and also my my co fighter in this thing.

Sam Stone: So and now after that, as I understand, after you both left the military, you moved back to her hometown in Cincinnati. So there's an important question I think we need to ask you here. Ah, yeah. No.

Orlando Sonza: Go ahead. You know it's coming. It's coming.

Sam Stone: Have you become a fan of eating chili on spaghetti?

Orlando Sonza: Look, Sam, I will tell you this, all right? It is Skyline all the way. I don't think I've yet to even taste Gold star, but it's Skyline all the way. But I had the luxury of tasting skyline for the first time, wearing a bib in front of my now father in law, asking for his blessing to marry Jessica. So when I put that coney in my mouth and tasted cinnamon in my chili, I was like, What in the world is this? This is awful. But I got his blessing and I've since acquired the skyline taste.

Sam Stone: So and so. So you actually got a photo of that from that that evening?

Orlando Sonza: No, because I think I spit it all on my bib, so, you know, know it well, but it's ingrained in my memory and so in John's as well.

Sam Stone: So I love that. So Orlando, just a heads up. Chuck is just now rejoined us in studio here, so we'll be continuing on with the both of us. But. All right, great. Hello, Orlando. Orlando.

Orlando Sonza: Good to meet you. Nice to.

Chuck Warren: Meet you.

Sam Stone: One of the things I wanted to get at in your bio, it says you're a second generation Filipino American. One of the things Chuck and I have talked on this program about is, frankly, the patriotism of people who have come to this country and then served in the military and how in many ways we're finding that recent immigrant families are as or more patriotic than than people more so here for generations. They're more so. More so.

Orlando Sonza: Oh, 100%, Sam And, you know, that's something that I grew up. Knowing, you know, and seeing it's, I think, just a false narrative that has been perpetrated by left wing media to showcase that this is something just recent. You know, it is truly immigrant families or that have that life story that showcases that. It is this sense of patriotism, love of country. Commitment to hard work, you know, love of freedom that this country has and the ability to go from nothing to achieving the American dream. That's something I grew up with and saw in New Jersey. It's something that my wife also, you know, that she's she's coming from a parents that have a Mexican American lineage, then also a Filipino American lineage. She saw that as well. So, yeah, that's 100% true today for sure. But it's also been true, you know, for for decades also in our country.

Sam Stone: I like that you brought up the American dream because if you're running for Congress, another thing we've talked about, Chuck, a lot on this show is that the American dream isn't dead, even if there's a lot of people out there who who seem to think it is but one group that across doesn't matter where they came from. But immigrants believe in the American dream.

Chuck Warren: They're the demographic that believes in it.

Sam Stone: Yeah, absolutely. Orlando.

Orlando Sonza: That's right. Yeah.

Chuck Warren: Let me ask you a question. So you're running for Congress now out there in Cincinnati. You've had a very illustrious career. You've had some many opportunities to to learn certain aspects of a career. So, for example, I want to ask you what each job has prepared, how each job has prepared you to be in Congress, for example, by going to West Point and serving the military. What? Talents that you acquire and develop that will benefit your constituents in Cincinnati. If you're in Congress.

Orlando Sonza: Yeah. You know, talking specifically to buy West Point and military background, I remember distinctly, you know, every week I would go to the Cadet Barber shop, get a haircut, and there was this poster in one of the, you know, one of the walls at the barber shop and it said West Point, where leaders aren't born. They're made. You know, it's kind of a cliche. It's a it's a funny thing, but it's just so impacted me the first time I saw it, because what I realized was leadership is about going through experiences and challenges and formulating this ability to lead people and lead them well. You know, the good leaders that we've seen in our country, they're not born. They were made by the crucible of adversity. And so whether it was at West Point, but then being able to translate and apply what I learned at the Academy, which was truly a premier leadership institution and applied it in the military, that's what I gleaned back. And I knew that in the military, whether I was leading infantry soldiers or leading finance soldiers in the second half of my military career, what it came down to is how do you motivate, train and inspire people to achieve a common goal but do it in a way that's transformational. And so I took that and then translated it into a post-military career. But I would say first and foremost, it is leadership that I learned at West Point and the military. And that's quite frankly, what we are seeing the lack of today. Right. Whether it's in Congress or at the White House, just Washington and its lack of good leadership is what's crippling for our nation and what people are tired of seeing. They want good, serious leadership that can solve complex, serious problems. That's what I seek to do when elected to Congress.

Sam Stone: It does seem, Chuck, like there's a lack of I was going to say, like Congress and the White House often these days seem rudderless, but I guess that would be more of a Navy analogy. They're bad pathfinders, right? They're not good at following the trails that they need to follow to get where they need to go.

Chuck Warren: No, not at all. You also served as an associate prosecutor for Hamilton County prosecutor's office. What, while serving in that role, what talents can you take to Congress that you learn from there?

Orlando Sonza: You know, it's a lot of problems, right, that are impacting our nation, not just southwest Ohio, but specifically, you know, drawing from my experience as an assistant prosecutor, as an attorney. The problem that we're seeing in southwest Ohio, whether it's the crime that is just continue to escalate the rate of violent crime, that's continuing to escalate across our big cities where Cincinnati you know, I just saw the numbers recently that we've got more juvenile homicides in in years, in decades in Cincinnati, or it's the fentanyl crisis, the opioid epidemic that is impacting southwest Ohio and across the country. You we need someone that can understand how to advocate for the right legislation necessary to reduce the crime in our cities and stop the wave of harmful drugs like fentanyl from destroying more lives. Look, that's that. That goes to the heart of having the right type of laws. And we don't need an actual, you know, legislator that has a law background, but certainly would help, right. Because it is laws and having constitutional laws that would then advance the good goals that we need in order to fix those problems. But as a prosecutor as well, I can speak firsthand to what I saw Fentanyl was doing and the the opioid epidemic was doing for our city and also what violent crime was doing in our city. And so that's what I'm seeking to actually fix and drawing from that experience.

Sam Stone: Yeah, I think that's actually one of the most important things right now for Congress to truly understand is how dramatic a shift fentanyl and then sort of the post 2020 lawlessness has created in this country. It's a really critical issue. We have only about 45 seconds before we go to break here. We're going to be continuing on after the break with Orlando, Sonza, candidate for Ohio's first Congressional district. And folks, make sure you stay tuned for the second half of our program. We're going to have Jason Willick, regular Washington Post columnist, talking about all the legal issues with Hunter, with Trump, all that kind of stuff. So make sure you stay tuned for that. And folks, if you're not already subscribed to our substack, go on our website. Make sure you get all the new episodes of breaking battlegrounds right when they come out for Chuck Warren. I'm Sam Stone. We'll be back in just a moment.

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Sam Stone: Welcome back to Breaking battlegrounds with your host, Chuck Moran. I'm Sam Stone. We're going to be continuing on in just a moment with Orlando Sansa, candidate with an amazing background running for Ohio's first congressional district. But before we do that, folks, how is your 401. K doing these days? The market's been up. The market's been down. This Biden economy is not helping folks. It is maybe time for you to consider diversifying your portfolio. You need to check out our friends at invest Y refy. Go to their website, invest the letter Y, then refy.com check them out because you can earn up to a 10.25% fixed rate of return. That's right. A 10.25 fixed rate of return in this economy is a fantastic opportunity. So go to that website. Check them out. You're not going to regret it. Invest the letter Y, then refy.com.

Chuck Warren: So you're running for Congress. What is it? Why should people vote for you versus the Democrat incumbent?

Orlando Sonza: Yeah, you know, it comes down to really what we've seen that Ohioans want today. They don't want the identity politics. What they want is serious leadership representing them in Washington. Who has the background and experience as a problem solver capable of understanding the complex issues impacting our nation? And, you know, unlike my opponent, I'm not interested in focusing on attention grabbing headlines like, for example, posing shirtless on the front page of the Cincinnati Enquirer to show off personal tattoos as a sitting US congressman.

Sam Stone: Was he riding behind Vladimir Putin on his horse?

Orlando Sonza: I don't know.

Orlando Sonza: About that, but he was on top of a rooftop and that was his first headliner as a US congressman. It's like, are you kidding me? You know, it's like, what about highlighting weird times?

Chuck Warren: What times? You know what?

Chuck Warren: Weird times.

Sam Stone: Yeah, that's, you know, that's really bizarre. Orlando.

Orlando Sonza: Well, you know, I say it. I wish I could make it up. But what it really highlights is the the leaders that we have in Washington, Greg Landsman is no exception. He's just completely out of touch for his role as a congressman and how he seeks to actually solve these complex issues of today. We're talking about a guy who is completely off when it comes to trying to fix inflation. You know, yesterday or two days ago, he decides to highlight on Twitter, you know, this infrastructure bill that got passed last year and how because of.

Sam Stone: His call that the pedestrian bridges to nowhere bill.

Orlando Sonza: Yeah right and and you know yeah it's great if we have a new Brent Spence Bridge here in Cincinnati connecting northern Kentucky and Cincinnati. But look, if our city continues to be crime ridden, if fentanyl continues to be in our streets, if our wallets are still being wreaked by inflation, then what? What good is a bridge? And my question to Landsman is, you know, why was your first position when this whole debt ceiling debacle unfolded? Why was your first position to increase government spending with no cut, with no cuts in spending? It's like, are you are you kidding me? It's like, you know, let's perpetuate the problem to solve the problem.

Sam Stone: You know, your experience as a prosecutor, you see a lot of people on a day to day basis who are really living on the edge, who a few hundred dollars a month can be the difference between them potentially participating in crime or ending up on the street or having all sorts of issues. And here we have an economy that news just came out $700 per month per family is the cost of the Biden inflation that Landsman and these others are are cheering on. That's right. How much of an impact does that have on the people of your district?

Orlando Sonza: It it has a huge impact. And look, it doesn't take a CPA like me, you know, with a master's in tax to realize that inflation has a direct impact on the wallets of Americans, everyday Americans, middle class Americans, especially me. Where to your point, I saw the same statistic $700 more a month than two years ago. And what is that actually speaking of? That's the rise in just the cost of living of our utility bills. I mean, we are talking about, you know, Greg Landsman being one of the ones that voted no on the very bill, H.R. one, that seeks to reduce our monthly gas and electric bills. Well, that's contributing to the $700 more a month than Americans are spending. It's the fact that we even have this thing called, you know, an electric and energy poverty in our country. And he doesn't want to fix it by the very bill that can lower the cost of gas and electricity for everyday Americans, completely out of touch. And so ultimately, what I'm seeking to do is to showcase to southwest Ohio that we have the opportunity here to bring back serious leadership. Not a. Attention grabbing antics. Back to Washington for southwest Ohio. Let's roll up our sleeves and let's actually get things done and achieve the things we want to achieve for Ohioans.

Sam Stone: We have about 3.5 minutes left. Chuck, you have experience as a chief of staff on Capitol Hill. I've worked at the city of Phoenix. I think one of the things that we would both probably agree on is that when you find a member of Congress or any elected body who has that one issue that they are passionate about.

Chuck Warren: You can tell you can tell it's sincerity when they talk about it.

Sam Stone: Orlando, what for you is that issue that drives you?

Orlando Sonza: Yeah, you know, we haven't touched on it yet. Right. But my ultimate motivation for jumping in this race is my four kids. You know, I'm raising alongside Jessica, four kids under the age of eight, seven, five, three and one. So when we're talking about protecting them and also achieving an America that is safe and secure for them, it also speaks to my parenting and the ability to make the best decisions for them. So what's the issue that's near and dear to my heart that's resounding with a lot of Southwest Ohioans? It's standing up for the family, whether it's the parents or the kids, and whether it's just simply standing up for parental rights with the the the Parents Bill of Rights, where you have landsmen voting no on simply affirming that we parents have a right to know what happens in our kids schools or to make the best educational decisions for our kids. I mean, that's bar none. First and foremost, we need to stand up for our parents and then also stand up for the safety and well-being for our kids so that they thrive. That is the number one issue that I think transcends all these other issues, whether it's fixing our economy for them, securing America for them, or just making sure that they thrive as they grow up in this country. That's what's motivating me to get into this fight. Get into this fight with no district map, Right. I'm not a candidate of convenience, right? I don't know if this map is going to be blue or red, but we'll find out in a month. But look, I didn't hold out. What? What? Southwest, Ohio, Cincinnati, Warren County, Hamilton County needs as a fighter. Someone who's willing to fight and lead from the front, no matter what this district may look like in terms of map lean. And I'm committed to do that. I'm committed to fight for my kids, my community, and this country will win in November. And I just urge everybody to join the fight alongside with us.

Chuck Warren: Where can they reach you at? Where can they find you? And learn more about your campaign? Where can they donate all that fun stuff.

Orlando Sonza: Yeah, absolutely. Orlandosonza.com Orlando like one of your favorite places in Florida Sonza Sonza.com come join the team come volunteer this this movement is just starting chip in if you can and we're just excited to to do this alongside other strong Americans that love this country, love their community.

Sam Stone: That's fantastic. Folks, we have just about a minute before we go to break. And we are going to be coming right back with Jason Willock of The Washington Post. Orlando, we really want to thank you for coming on the program today, folks. You know, Orlando is one of those candidates we have out there that are really highlighting the growing diversity of the Republican Party. But also what you hear from our guests week after week is the intellectual diversity, the variety of views and issues that are important to them in Orlando. We want to thank you again for taking the time to join us in our audience today. We really appreciate having you. We'll look forward to getting some updates on your campaign as it goes forward. And we're wishing you the absolute best.

Orlando Sonza: Thank you, Sam. Chuck, Thank you for having me.

Chuck Warren: Have a great weekend, folks.

Sam Stone: Breaking battlegrounds will be back in just one moment. Welcome back to Breaking Battlegrounds with your host, Sam Stone and Chuck Warren. Up next with us today, Jason Willick writes a regular Washington Post column on legal issues, political ideas and foreign affairs. Before coming to the Post, he was an editorial writer and assistant editorial feature features editor for the Wall Street Journal, and before that, a staff writer and associate editor at American Interest. Jason, thank you for joining us. Welcome to the program.

Jason Willick: Good to be with.

Chuck Warren: You, Jason. We want to talk about the legal mess our country's in right now with both Hunter Biden and former President Trump. I want to first start with this. So it was announced this week that Germany is not going to meet their commitment on 2% of GNP towards defense spending. Poland is now spending 5% of their GNP towards defense. Should we just move our troops and everything over to Poland?

Jason Willick: Well, I ah, you know, the post Cold War. Arrangement is really sort of getting unsettled, isn't it, with. Yes. With Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I mean, Germany is the biggest economy in Europe. I think there's a growing consensus in Washington that we need to be focusing on Asia, on China, that that's the bigger threat to American interests. And Germany's the richest country in Europe. So they're clearly going to need to foot the foot the bill for maintaining security in Europe. And it looked for a moment like they might do that with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Berlin was really freaked out and starting to rethink all of its priorities. And I think they're starting to fall back to a it'll be okay. The Americans will take care of it. The Eastern Europeans will deal with it. We don't we don't really need to fundamentally rethink things. And I think it's definitely a priority for a US administration to talk some sense into the Germans on this.

Chuck Warren: I hope they bring it up at the RNC debate for the presidential candidates on Tuesday night, because I think this is a real issue going forward for national security. All right. Let's talk about this. You wrote a column recently called Written said why the Hunter Biden plea fiasco will be a drag on Democrats. And since you wrote that, we now have a special prosecutor, the same prosecutor who gave the sweetheart deal to him on the plea arrangement. Talk to our listeners, explain to them exactly what's happening.

Jason Willick: Well, there was this astonishing situation a few weeks ago where the plea deal, which we were all told, you know, this is a very normal plea deal. The Merrick Garland says everyone is treated alike. And my Justice Department, we treat like cases alike. How dare anyone question that? And then they put the plea agreement in front of a judge and she said, this is very irregular. I've never seen anything like this. What is going on here? She didn't even say, I'm not going to accept it. She just said, Can you explain to me what the deal is? What's the immunity? How much immunity does he get in exchange for pleading guilty to these charges? How does it work on this gun charge, the diversion agreement that you guys have entered? And then the two parties that turned out didn't even agree what was in the deal? Because the defense for Hunter Biden thought it was very generous and the prosecutors were like, no, no, no, it wasn't that generous. So the whole thing, the whole thing blew up and they weren't able to reach.

Jason Willick: And then she said, Come back to me in a few weeks, work this out. And then it seems that they've tried to go back and work it out and they couldn't come to an agreement about a plea deal. And I think what basically happened is the Justice Department was trying to give Hunter Biden a very generous deal. But when they were asked to explain it in public, it became politically embarrassing to admit how generous it was. So then with all this scrutiny, the thing fell apart. The Justice Department realized politically, we can't do this. We can't look like we're giving such a generous deal to the president's son. And so now Merrick Garland thinks that he's resolving this by appointing a special counsel, which, you know, it's true that if he would have appointed a special counsel a while ago, that would have, I think, made people less concerned about what was going on. But now you're appointing a special counsel, the same prosecutor who gave this deal in the first place. So I don't think it's it's really solving the issue.

Chuck Warren: Jason, wasn't there anybody Look, I don't think Garland made this decision just by himself on his desk one day. So he obviously had some people that he trusts that he talks to. Right. Do you think anybody said, you know, we probably shouldn't appoint the same guy that just gave this what most Americans think is a sweetheart deal? Do you think there's anybody advising him that's playing devil's advocate, saying, you know, this may not look right?

Jason Willick: I think, you know, it's Republicans were calling for David Weiss, who's the United States attorney for Delaware, who was appointed by Trump. But, you know, Delaware is a Democratic state, has has two Democratic senators. So it was approved basically by Democrats as well as Trump to become the special counsel. And Republicans initially said, why isn't he a special counsel? And some of the whistleblowers in this case said, you know, he needed these powers of special counsel that he didn't have. So I think Garland's like, you know, a few months ago, this was the debate was, should David Weiss be a special counsel? I think so. And I think Garland is trying to hold the thing together, satisfy critics by making him a special counsel. But you're absolutely right. It's you know, it's too little and too late.

Chuck Warren: It stinks to high heaven with Jason Willock. He is a Washington Post columnist. We're going to have him back on our next segment. You can find him on Twitter at Jay Willock. And this is breaking battlegrounds. You can find us at breaking battlegrounds dot vote. We'll be right back with Jason. Talk more about Hunter Biden and all the fun Donald Trump appointments, indictments. We'll be back.

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Chuck Warren: We're with Jason Willock. He is a Washington Post columnist. He goes over law, politics, foreign policy. You can find him on Twitter at Jay Willock, W.i.l.l. Ike All right. Going back to Hunter Biden, can Congress do anything to have them appoint a new special prosecutor, special counsel, or are they just sort of stuck with this same old, same old?

Speaker6: I think.

Jason Willick: They're stuck. I mean, they can they can do subpoenas and conduct, try to do their own investigation. But I think that the Justice Department, they can't compel the Justice Department really to do to do something different. Merrick Garland's in charge of the Justice Department. They and I think that they're they need to conduct their own parallel investigation if they want to if they want to.

Chuck Warren: Mitch McConnell does not get enough credit for keeping Merrick Garland off the Supreme Court. Not at all. But that's a conversation for another day. All right, Jason, you wrote an article this week called Trump Triggers the Politics of Emergency. Talk to us a little bit about that article and explain to our audience what you see as the most difficult indictment on Donald Trump. What's the most dangerous for him? What's the least likely to produce anything against him?

Jason Willick: So on the article on the Politics of Emergency, I wrote that after some of you may have remembered that people wanted to disqualify Trump from the ballot from running again under the 14th Amendment's Section three, which disqualifies someone who engaged in insurrection against the United States as a Civil War era provision of the Constitution meant to disqualify Confederates. And so the House impeached Trump for incitement to insurrection and wanted the Senate to disqualify him. But he was acquitted in the Senate trial. But what I'm saying in this column is I think that among Trump's opponents, we're going to see this idea getting momentum again. What what triggered that was there was a long article by two law professors sort of arguing that he needs to be disqualified. It's not even close. And and it's in effect automatically so people can go to court or secretaries of state can take him off the ballot and and it can be challenged in court. But this is this has to happen. This is what is constitutional. And my point is just we're really getting into a politics of emergency here. I think as the as Trump's political momentum increases, he seems likely to get the Republican nomination. I think that's why part of the reason at least we we saw the decision to indict him. There was this sense that we have to do something about January 6th. And I think in the next year or so, we're going to see some efforts to try to disqualify him from the ballot, because just if one state disqualifies him from the ballot, that would then go to the Supreme Court and it would become a national issue. It's been something that most serious people would not have taken seriously before, But who knows, maybe in six months they will start taking it seriously and will start lobbying for this to happen.

Sam Stone: In this piece, Jason, written by these professors, are they arguing that, for instance, a secretary of state or high state elections official could simply they don't have to go to court to get Trump thrown off the ballot? They could simply make the decision to just leave him off the ballot and then it would actually be in Trump's camp or the RNC camp to try to sue to restore that access.

Jason Willick: Pretty much there. You know, the procedure varies by state who has standing to do what, what the power is of various election officials. But they're basically saying, yes, someone can try to enforce, in their view, the 14th Amendment and then Trump can take them to court and challenge them.

Sam Stone: See, here in Arizona, for instance, you have a Democrat secretary of state who's been very vocal about Trump. You have a Democrat AG who's been vocal about Trump. You have a Democrat governor who's called for them to prosecute Trump here. I think very easily they could throw it off the ballot. But you're talking about the politics of emergency. This that kind of thing is what worries me, Chuck, more than anything else right now.

Chuck Warren: That's nothing goes right to the.

Sam Stone: Supreme Court environment.

Chuck Warren: Yeah, no, absolutely.

Jason Willick: I agree. I mean, look, I think this is not normal politics. This is we're talking about having an election. We're. Where we have a candidate who's under indictment in four jurisdictions. The judge in D.C. is basically telling him to stop talking about the case in the way that he is or she might have to take action against him. Meanwhile, in parallel, you might have efforts to take him off the ballot. And like I said, I don't see how at least somebody doesn't try to take him off the ballot in some blue states such that this gets to the courts pretty quickly. This is just an extraordinary situation. And I have I have worries for how it will affect our legitimacy of our of our political system.

Chuck Warren: If you have an office pool, look for Arizona's AG to try this trick. I'm convinced of it. I would. She is she is an activist and she wants that headline. It's amazing. Okay. Trump's been indicted now on four separate, you know, many indictments, but many counts. But there's you know, there's basically four big things. What do you view as the most dangerous to him of actually being convicted on in order You can rank him in order. What you think? One, two, three, four?

Jason Willick: Well, I think I mean, what I think he's likely to be convicted on is different from what I think is likely to actually hold up on appeal and and what I think is actually the strongest. I mean.

Chuck Warren: So so go through each case. Go through each case. Let's start first with J six. Go ahead. What do you think on that?

Jason Willick: Well, I think, you know, on January 6th, you're talking about a Washington, DC jury, which is know roughly 95% Democratic. And I think if you give a jury like that permission to convict Donald Trump, you say, look, if you find that he acted corruptly, you can convict him. I think most you know, I think he has really long odds to get an actual acquittal. You know, a hung jury is possible. I do think the statutes that are being used in that case, fraud and obstruction and conspiring against rights are sort of strange uses of these statutes. I think they're they're aggressive uses of the statutes. And I think that there's definitely a chance that on appeal, one or more of those could be invalidated as No, that's not what this statute means. But I think Jack Smith is racing to get to trial, to get a conviction before the election. And, you know, appeals would take much longer than that. I think in Florida, the Mar a Lago case, that's clearly the strongest case. I think Trump did mishandle the documents. I think if what Jack Smith says is true, he obstructed the efforts of the government to get back the documents that said in Miami, he's got a much more, you know, friendly, friendly terrain.

Chuck Warren: Friendly terrain down there.

Jason Willick: Much, much more politically friendly terrain. It's possible for me to imagine one juror saying, no, this is politically motivated. I'm not going to convict him and getting a hung jury because, remember, even a hung jury would be a big defeat for the prosecution in any of these. But I do think that's the strongest case by far down in Florida. And then you've got this New York case that I think is kind of ridiculous about about paying. But but again, you're talking about a Manhattan jury is not is not very popular there.

Sam Stone: No. I mean, look, I, I absolutely expect that whatever Manhattan jury is to convict him. But I would love to see them prosecute all the other New York politicians who have paid off mistresses over the years, because that could be fun, right?

Jason Willick: I mean, it's a little bit you know, it's a little bit ridiculous. And on appeal, you know, on some of these, you know, appellate courts are going to look at it in probably a less political way and be like, hold on a second. This isn't a proper use of the law. So I could on a lot of these, I could see one thing on conviction, something else on appeal. Then down in Georgia, you know, I think Fulton County, again, a fairly Democratic area, Trump's going to try to remove the case, the federal court, which would be a little bit of a different jury pool, maybe a more favorable jury pool. I think some parts that that one is a mixed bag. I think some parts of the case are stronger. I think the Rico, the idea of using Rico is is a little is a stretch and may not hold up. But Georgia has sort of more straightforward laws like it's not like this was fraud and fraud means this in some broad sense. It's like it's more straightforward, like soliciting an officer to do something that they shouldn't do. It's more broken down. You know, this particular phone call is a crime. So I think it's a little more straightforward. But I think the whole Rico framing is flawed and that that one's a mess. It's a huge case, huge numbers of people. Some of them are going to try to remove it to federal court. That one is not going to go to trial before the election, I don't think.

Chuck Warren: Well, yeah, I mean, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp today said that, quote, This trial, despite what dates anybody is asking for, it's not going to happen before the election.

Jason Willick: Oh, did he?

Chuck Warren: Yeah. That came out this morning. That was like a couple hours ago. So Kemp has just said this is not happening before the election, so. You know what, Jason? If. If Peacock or Netflix came to you and said, Write us the craziest experience about an ex-president getting in legal trouble, Could you have made this up?

Jason Willick: Uh.

Jason Willick: I would need more imagination. I would need more imagination. But, you know, he's, uh. I think it's important to note, you know, he's he's given, you know, he's in a real way. He's brought this on himself. Yes, he has. He did. On January 6th. On January 6th, I, you know, I'm on the fence and I and I, you know, I don't I'm not I don't really think that it fits the criminal statutes. I think they're trying to create criminal statutes to fit his terrible conduct. But I think it's basically terrible political conduct that that voters should judge. And, you know, but that's that's not happening. And instead, we're trying to use the legal process. And, you know, I think, you know, who knows what kind of precedents are going to be set by this legal process? I really do do worry about that.

Sam Stone: Jason, which of the charges do you think you've talked about? Some of them. They may have different fates in front of a jury. And then on appeal, which of these charges is the one that is most likely to make it all the way through and stick?

Jason Willick: All the way through and thick. Well, I mean, I'd say if if a jury in Florida convicts Trump of mishandling the documents or of obstructing the investigation, that will stick. That's not something I don't think that the appellate courts will reverse.

Jason Willick: So I.

Jason Willick: Probably have to say that one, that's ultimately the strongest, clearest case alleging sort of a straightforward violation of the.

Jason Willick: Law.

Sam Stone: Yeah. It seemed that way to me. I think one of the the questions I had, especially looking at the Georgia indictments that I felt frankly, in some ways angered me most, was that they're targeting Trump's lawyers and. Right. And that sort of thing, that that's a really dangerous precedent to be setting in our legal system.

Jason Willick: Yeah.

Jason Willick: Yep. Um, you know, to some extent they don't prosecute the lawyers in the January and Jack Smith's January 6th case in Washington, but they're named as co-conspirators, you know, without naming them. But it's clear that they're co-conspirators. I mean, the line between a nutty legal theory and and a fraud, you know, we want people to be allowed to raise nutty legal theories in general. I mean, and that's why I made the comparison in the piece. What if somebody says I have the right to take Trump off the ballot because it's constitutionally required? And so you take him off the ballot and then he wins, Can he turn around and say this was election interference? Your theory was in bad faith and it was completely wrong and you're taking me off the ballot was, you know, interfering with the election process illegally. I mean, the these are the kinds of things that we want to be very careful with. And I think this is what gets to the sense of emergency. People are normally careful with these things, but they feel now we're in an emergency. We have to throw caution to the wind. And we we have to stop this.

Chuck Warren: Democrats are going to create a whole new precedent. It's like when Harry Reid did with the judges in the Senate and then we go around and use it and they have a cow and a conniption. Quickly here, we got about a minute left with you, Jason, and we want to have you back on because I'm sure this topic will be continuing for a while. President Biden today is having a summit with Japan and South Korea. I think that's a good move for the country. Your thoughts?

Speaker6: Absolutely.

Jason Willick: You know, we have treaty commitments to defend South Korea and Japan. We've you know, we've fought a war in the last century and in both countries, in World War II and in the Korean War. These are important strategic countries that are rich, powerful countries that we need to check China. They have, you know, a tough history together. You know, Japan invaded Korea. There's no love lost between them on some issues. So to the extent that we can bring them into an alignment as opposed to being pried apart, you know, our alliance structure will be stronger.

Sam Stone: Fantastic. Thank you so much, Jason Willick of The Washington Post. We really appreciate having you on again today, folks. You can follow him at I believe it's at JA Willick on Twitter.

Chuck Warren: That's correct.

Sam Stone: That's correct. Okay. Follow him, folks at Jay Willick on Twitter and subscribe to The Washington Post. Let's keep the good journalism rolling, breaking battlegrounds coming back, not on air. You got to tune in for our podcast segment, Go to breaking battlegrounds dot vote. We'll see you on air next week.

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Chuck Warren: Welcome back to Breaking Battlegrounds podcast. Only extra innings. Glad you're with us here today. And Sam, I are going to talk about three issues on this portion of the podcast today and we'll probably talk baseball.

Sam Stone: Now you got me drooling over this extra innings.

Chuck Warren: I I'm a changeup baseball podcast is now extra innings podcasts now for breaking battlegrounds is extra innings so that's where we're at. All right, folks, you were here first. All right. First, the average rate of most common type of mortgages in the United States is now 7.1%. That's 30 year fixed loans. Wow. That's the highest since December 2001. And folks, most of you remember what happened in 2001, right? We had nine divided by 11 and September 2001. Yeah. So, um, the 2% past year, that's more than 4.4 points from the all time low seen in January 2021. That's how much mortgage has gone up under a Joe Biden presidency. They don't want to talk about it. But here's here's what the reality of this is. With a 20% down payment. And Sam, there's a lot of people who do not have a 20% down payment for a home.

Sam Stone: Now, a lot of people are putting 3% maybe if that.

Chuck Warren: But our mortgage companies, because of these, they're probably going to start requiring there's no more going to be this 3% stuff. I'm telling you right now, unless you do a 50 year mortgage.

Sam Stone: Or your Fannie Freddie back. Yeah, right, right, right. Yeah.

Chuck Warren: So so a median priced house is $465,000. No, excuse me. Sorry about that. With a 20% down now on a median priced home, you will pay $465,000 in interest over 30 years. Now.

Sam Stone: Up from from how much? I mean, it had to. It was 200. Yeah. 200. Right.

Chuck Warren: A year and a half ago. So when Biden talks about the economy's doing great, it's it's an interesting scenario. A lot of people work. That's true. I don't feel we're in this crippling recession, but we are in as our guest Oscar talked earlier, we have things like electric poverty now. We have food poverty now. I love gas. Poverty now. Right. And so that's where we're at. And, you know, I don't know, you know, this extra $700 a month, Sam, where are people getting it? We know, for example, that 60% of people don't even have $1,000 in savings. They couldn't come up with 1000 for emergency. Were people getting this extra $70 a month? They're doing it from credit cards.

Sam Stone: Which is running.

Chuck Warren: Out. Which is running.

Sam Stone: Out. I mean, we're we're hearing already from the credit card companies that the defaults are going way up. Yep. You're hearing from the auto loan companies, the defaults are going way up. If you want to talk about the risk of a real recession, it's not the job situation now, but it's the home and living situation with these folks being displaced because of these increases. And then how do you maintain a job?

Chuck Warren: Well, and this is the dishonesty of our mainstream media. If this was a President Reagan or President Bush 41 or President Bush 43 a Trump, we would see front page stories in the Miami Herald, Arizona Republic, San Diego Tribune, weekly of people standing in food lines.

Sam Stone: Every single day. You would see teasers throughout the day on all their commercials for the big piece that night attacking, you know, Trump, Reagan, whichever Republican for these conditions. I mean, this is $700 a month per household. You know, folks, do the math, right? You're talking $8,400 per year. Yeah. Where's the average American getting an extra $8,400?

Chuck Warren: Right now they're big borrowing still and it's a problem. So let's talk now about another problem that the Maui fires.

Sam Stone: The response to the fire.

Chuck Warren: The response has been horrible. I talked to a friend a couple of days ago who used to be an employee of mine who now lives out there. And we were talking about I said, so do the deaths get over 100? This is a couple of days after, and she's homeless, lost her house, but she has some in-laws that she's been able to stay with on the island. And she said, Chuck, there's a thousand people missing. I mean, you're going to get to a thousand people dead here because it happened so fast. And there's a story today which I have posted on our social media of a woman trying to go back and rescue her son, and they found him charred. I mean, he was he was dead with the family pet. And it's just and so the real question is, and Sam, why don't you describe it, there was an administrator who's in charge for five hours, did not allow them to have water that they needed.

Sam Stone: Yeah. Did not release water that, you know, that Maui has stored and didn't allow homeowners to get that water to be able to, you know, protect their properties at all, even for the firefighters to hook up to and fight the fires. This administrator literally hemmed and hawed because he said that due to environmental considerations, water had to be treated as a precious resource. Let me add a couple other things, because the the emergency response from Hawaii, the state of Hawaii, the officials of Hawaii, Chuck, I believe are guilty of mass murder.

Chuck Warren: Well, they should be held up for manslaughter. Yeah, I mean, they really should.

Sam Stone: For for a thousand counts by the end of this thing of manslaughter.

Chuck Warren: Absolutely. What he did was criminal.

Sam Stone: Well, how about the power companies which left the power on for five hours in all their lines when they knew they were sparking fires? And why would you do that? The only thing I could think I haven't seen much investigation on this, Chuck, but the only thing I could think of was they didn't want to turn off power to the big resorts.

Chuck Warren: Maybe so. Maybe so.

Sam Stone: I mean, because I mean.

Chuck Warren: There's no there's no reason for.

Sam Stone: It. Look, I know from here in Arizona and I know from situations in California now, the power companies have just made a decision, look, if you get winds over a certain amount, that's likely to be starting to down, shut them down, you just shut them down. You just shut them down because the risk of fire and the risk to to civilian life from that kind of situation is too great. So he shut them down. They did not do that. Then they denied them water. Then they're not letting them into their homes. They didn't activate the sirens to let people know there was a problem. I mean, there are so many things that Hawaii did wrong here and they're being kind of given a pass again by the national media on this. Well, what's.

Chuck Warren: Amazing is Hawaii's governor asked the press to do their job to investigate the water. He did that yesterday. Just saying basically, why don't you guys do your job and find out why this wasn't released?

Sam Stone: Well, and why aren't they asking questions about the electricity? Why aren't they asking questions about some sort of organized rescue that never came together?

Chuck Warren: So, Mr. Manuel, he's the deputy director of Hawaii's Commission on Water Resource Management. Whenever you have a long title like that, you're fairly worthless anyway.

Sam Stone: Guaranteed.

Chuck Warren: I think he should be charged with manslaughter.

Sam Stone: I agree.

Chuck Warren: And I'm not saying that to make a political point. I think what he did was putting the needs of people as a very secondary measure on this.

Sam Stone: I think there are numerous, numerous officials there that need to be looked into very carefully and criminal prosecution considered in a number of cases based on how they handled this. And he's number one at the top of that list.

Chuck Warren: I agree. All right. Well, let's talk about a headline grabbing politician. Katie Hobbs thinks Donald Trump should be prosecuted. You know, view that for what he was. I don't know if the country needs a fifth one and ag mains, which you and I said when the elections were over, that was going to be worse for Arizona than Katie Hobbs. I still stand by that.

Sam Stone: Because Chris Mayes is smarter than Katie Hobbs.

Chuck Warren: And she directly has and she has an agenda. She has an agenda. I don't. I think that's just very bad for the country. And I think that is going to cause a real problem of Arizona. They do it, and I'm pretty convinced they're going to try to do it.

Sam Stone: I think they are going to I think they're going to prosecute him for sure. And again, going back to some of the things Jason said, write your jury here isn't going to be an easy jury.

Chuck Warren: No, it's a hung jury here.

Sam Stone: It's a hung jury here for sure. You're not you're almost certain not to get it through. This is Arizona still. It's still despite all the election laws, it's still a lightly center right, light red state. So you're not going to do that. But what does concern me, what he was talking about, that state of emergency, I fully believe and expect that Mayes, Adrian Fontes and Hobbs will conspire to remove Trump from the ballot. And given the timelines here in Arizona, they'll do it after the preferential the presidential preferential election, right. So when Trump is the nominee. Right. They'll wait because until then, you can't. I mean, really, you have nothing to remove. They'll do that. Our timeline is so tight between that and when ballots go out for the general election, there's barely time to print them. So they're basically going to ensure that there's no way that Trump's name appears on a ballot in Arizona. If they do that and.

Chuck Warren: Does that.

Chuck Warren: Does that if that goes, does that go up to the US Supreme Court or are Arizona State Supreme Court?

Sam Stone: Well, it's going to have to go through the Arizona Supreme Court first. I mean, it's going to be a state court case first and then potentially could be appealed to the US Supreme Court. Now, I do think, frankly, the Arizona Supreme Court will rule to put him on the ballot. I agree. But let me let me just say this. The minute they make that move. I'm putting on body armor. It's going to be because this the chance that that will create an actual insurrection. And real violence to me is here in Arizona and in many other places in this country, to me would be almost 100% if they do that.

Chuck Warren: Well, I hope it doesn't happen. I hope their political ambitions take a back seat. Let the current four cases play out.

Sam Stone: Well and let the election play out. I mean, at the at the end of the day and Jason Willick alluded to this, is that there is a role for judging the actions of politicians when they're legally questionable but aren't clearly over a line. Correct. And that mechanism is elections. Correct. And we're going to have one.

Chuck Warren: Yeah. Let it play out. Yeah, let it play out. Well, folks, this is breaking battlegrounds. Please share our show with your friends and family and colleagues. You can find us at Breaking Battlegrounds dot vote or wherever you download your podcast. This is Chuck and Sam. We look forward to having you next week.

Chuck Warren: Have a great weekend.

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