AGF's David Stonehouse: A Narrower Path Forward for Markets in 2026

In this episode of Insight Is Capital, host Pierre Daillie sits down with David Stonehouse, Interim CIO and Head of North American Specialty Investments at AGF Investments, for a wide-ranging but grounded discussion on what lies ahead for investors as the cycle matures.

Stonehouse frames 2026 as a constructive but narrower environment—one supported by global monetary easing, rising fiscal stimulus, and resilient earnings growth, yet constrained by elevated valuations, softer labor markets, and geopolitical uncertainty. The conversation carefully unpacks how tariffs have shifted from an economic “earthquake” to a lingering aftershock, why inflation fears may be overstated near-term, and how investors can think about regional diversification beyond a heavily concentrated U.S. market.

Rather than offering bold predictions, the discussion emphasizes flexibility, balance, and readiness—highlighting why equal-weight equity exposure, selective credit, emerging markets, and a strategic cash buffer may matter more than ever as uncertainty rises but opportunity persists.

🔑 3 Key Takeaways

• 2026 looks constructive—but with less room for error. Global easing cycles, fiscal stimulus, deregulation, and healthy earnings support risk assets, but elevated valuations and optimistic sentiment increase vulnerability to shocks.

• Tariffs are no longer a shock, but still a drag. The biggest tariff surprise is behind us; clarity—not resolution—matters most now, allowing businesses and consumers to adapt even as trade frictions persist.

• Diversification and optionality matter more than conviction. With U.S. equities richly valued after a long run, Stonehouse sees relative opportunity in emerging markets, Japan, and potentially Canada—while cash provides flexibility if volatility returns.

⏱️ Timestamped Chapters

• 00:00 – Markets heading into 2026: momentum with less margin for error

• 02:00 – David Stonehouse’s career path and investment philosophy

• 03:00 – The six macro tailwinds shaping 2026

• 08:00 – Tariffs: from economic earthquake to manageable aftershocks

• 12:00 – Labor markets, immigration, AI, and the “no-hire, no-fire” economy

• 17:00 – Fiscal stimulus, affordability pressures, and the K-shaped economy

• 22:00 – Central banks, bond markets, and the myth of ‘new QE’

• 31:00 – Inflation, disinflation, and long-term yield risks

• 38:00 – Why equities can still rise—but valuations matter

• 43:00 – Regional opportunities: U.S., Canada, emerging markets, Japan

• 52:00 – Portfolio positioning: equities, fixed income, credit, and cash

• 55:00 – Final thoughts on risk, resilience, and flexibility

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