The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series A Peace Deal for Azerbaijan and Armenia? || Peter Zeihan
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Aug 27, 2025 Explore the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, tracing its roots back to the Soviet Union's collapse. Discover how Azerbaijan's military strength is shaping the landscape and reducing Russian dominance in the region. Delve into a recent peace agreement that could change everything, including a vital corridor linking Azerbaijan to Turkey. The discussion unpacks the potential for a new economic and political era in a historically turbulent region.
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Historical Roots Of The Conflict
- Armenia and Azerbaijan fought over Nagorno-Karabakh since the Soviet breakup, with Armenia holding territory and Yerevan directing the breakaway region.
- Russia backed Armenia for decades, giving it leverage despite Armenia's smaller economy and population.
Power Shift Through Energy And Drones
- Azerbaijan's energy wealth and drone technology reversed the balance, allowing it to retake occupied territories including Nagorno-Karabakh.
- Russia's role weakened as Azerbaijan's defense budget grew larger than Armenia's economy, shifting regional power.
Ukraine War Changed Russian Guarantees
- The Ukraine war distracted Russia and forced it to reduce support for Armenia, removing Armenia's key security guarantor.
- Armenia faced dwindling options and thus moved toward a negotiated deal with Azerbaijan under new regional pressures.