World Business Report The US is facing an economic blindspot
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Nov 13, 2025 Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG, and Emma Wall, Chief Investment Strategist at Hargreaves Lansdowne, dive into the consequences of the recent US government shutdown. Diane highlights the potential void in critical October jobs and inflation data, jeopardizing the Federal Reserve’s decision-making. Emma discusses the global ripple effects of missing US economic indicators and wayward corporate results. They also touch on striking Starbucks workers and Scotland's quirky 'kilt bonds', showcasing a unique intersection of economics and culture.
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Shutdown Creates Data Blind Spot
- The US shutdown may have permanently damaged federal statistics by skipping October CPI and jobs reports.
- Diane Swonk warns the missing data leaves the Federal Reserve and markets flying blind when setting policy.
Backfilling Payrolls Is Easier Than Recreating Surveys
- Household surveys for October are unreliable if collected after the fact because memories fade and details are lost.
- Diane Swonk says payroll records can be backfilled but rich household detail cannot be accurately reconstructed.
Staff Shortages Worsen Data Quality
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics was already understaffed by about 25% before the shutdown.
- Diane Swonk notes that staffing shortfalls increased imputed data and widened gaps even before October's data was lost.