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Francis Gavin, "Thinking Historically: A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy" (Yale UP, 2025)

Dec 4, 2025

Guest

Francis J. Gavin

Francis Gavin, a historian and director at the Henry Kissinger Center at Johns Hopkins, talks about his book, "Thinking Historically." He argues that history should be a tool for decision-makers, helping them navigate complexities instead of simply providing analogies. Gavin shares insights on the decline of statecraft history and how figures like Ben Bernanke used historical understanding to inform critical decisions during crises. He emphasizes the importance of a historical sensibility and offers a twelve-question checklist to enhance historical decision-making.

01:17:57

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Episode notes

insights

INSIGHT

Why Statecraft History Faded

Historians' choice of topics is shaped by present concerns and institutional trends.
That produced a retreat from statecraft and strategy after the Cold War and around 2008.

insights

INSIGHT

Everyone Thinks They Do History

Everyone 'thinks historically' but usually does it poorly and unsafely.
Professional historians develop a rigorous epistemology that decision makers rarely use.

insights

INSIGHT

History's Different Epistemology

History resists the social‑science drive for parsimony, replicability, and broad generalizations.
That makes historians better at handling fear, honor, and contingency in politics.

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Motivation and Audience for Thinking Historically

01:35 • 5min

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Why Statecraft History Declined

06:08 • 7min

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Defining Historical Memory vs. Professional History

12:56 • 5min

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History and the Social Sciences

Historical Sensibility and Thinking Historically

23:31 • 5min

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Can History Change Decisions? The 9/11 Example

28:18 • 7min

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History as a Practical Tool, Not a Crystal Ball

35:45 • 8min

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Bernanke and Historical Learning in Crisis

43:43 • 7min

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Historical Judgment and 51-49 Choices

50:47 • 2min

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History Encourages Humility and Trade-Off Awareness

53:09 • 2min

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Twelve-Question Checklist for Decision Makers

55:23 • 4min

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Bridging Historians and Practitioners

59:52 • 9min

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Reimagining History: New Institutions and Problem-Focused Work

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Thinking Historically

A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy

Francis J. Gavin

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Thinking in Time

The Uses of History for Decision Makers

Richard E. Neustadt

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In 'Thinking in Time', Neustadt and May explore how historical analysis can inform and improve decision-making processes. They provide practical advice on how to apply historical insights to contemporary policy challenges, emphasizing the importance of understanding past events to make better decisions in the present.

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Wonder and Worry: Contemporary History in an Age of Uncertainty

Francis J. Gavin

'Wonder and Worry' is a collection of essays and writings by Francis J. Gavin that explores contemporary history through the lens of uncertainty. The book delves into various themes, reflecting on the qualities of leadership, the complexities of decision-making, and the challenges of navigating an unpredictable world. Gavin's musings offer insights into the intersections of history, politics, and society. He examines the underlying assumptions that shape our understanding of current events, urging readers to question prevailing narratives. 'Wonder and Worry' presents a nuanced perspective on modern history, prompting reflection on the forces that drive global affairs and the choices that define our era. It serves as a thought-provoking commentary on the uncertainties of our time.

In his timely, thought-provoking book Thinking Historically: A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy (Yale UP, 2025), Francis Gavin makes a powerful case for why a genuine historical sensibility, rooted in curiosity, humility, and discernment, is not just an academic virtue but a critical tool for decision-makers. Rather than mining the past for tidy analogies, he argues that history should be practiced as a way of thinking: it complicates our assumptions, reveals the unexpected, and helps us understand the world, ultimately making it easier to achieve a clarity of perspective. By weaving together lessons from statecraft and strategy, Gavin shows how thinking historically equips leaders to navigate complexity, confront uncertainty, and make wiser choices in a world that all too often misuses or neglects the wisdom of the past. The book is a major contribution to the ongoing conversation about the impact that history (and the humanities) can make outside of academia. Even more importantly, Thinking Historically also functions as a practical guide to historically-grounded decision-making. We've been waiting for this book for a long time. Check out the episode if you want to learn about the value of history in decision-making, reflect on how teaching history to policymakers is like teaching sex education to teenagers, hear about how Ben Bernanke used history to make impactful economic decisions in 2008-2010, and consider what historians can learn from nuclear physicists. Not to be missed!

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