The Bitcoin Layer Bitcoin Holds $90,000: Volatility, Yields, & The FED’S NEXT PRINT
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Dec 3, 2025 Delve into the intriguing dynamics of US Treasury interest expenses and why lowering rates is crucial. Explore how bond volatility influences Bitcoin's price, and the significance of Japan's yield spikes. The evolving relationship between the dollar and China reveals potential trade shifts. Discover the pressures within the repo market and why only Fed balance sheet expansion might ease funding stress. As Bitcoin navigates a turbulent landscape, its ability to hold above $90,000 sparks engaging discussions on its future trajectory.
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Watch Inflation Before Betting On Fed Cuts
- Expect the Federal Reserve to need lower inflation as cover before it can cut policy rates.
- Watch inflation and the job market as prerequisites for Fed easing that will lower Treasury roll costs.
Five-Year Yield Drives Debt Roll Risk
- The five-year yield matters because the weighted-average maturity of outstanding Treasuries concentrates near that horizon.
- About half the debt can roll within five years, making medium-term yields crucial for future interest expense.
Bond Volatility Controls Bitcoin Moves
- Bond volatility spikes drove the November risk selloff and remain a primary driver of Bitcoin price.
- Bitcoin closely tracks bond volatility and responded to lower bond vol with a bounce above $90k.