Conflicted Community: Q&A – What Will 2025 Hold for Syria & Israel?
Jan 8, 2025
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In the latest discussion, the hosts dive into the decline of baathism in Syria and the implications for the region. They analyze al-Julani's election delay and HTS's future in maintaining control. The conversation shifts to Hamas's surprising military capabilities and the fallout from recent terror attacks in the U.S. and Germany. This dynamic Q&A not only engages with pressing geopolitical issues but also brings personal insights, setting the stage for an intriguing look at the future of the Middle East.
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Quick takeaways
The persistence of militant groups and the disintegration of the Iranian economy suggest an imminent escalation of conflict in the Middle East by 2025.
Turkey's strategy to enhance its regional influence through natural gas projects could provoke Iranian retaliation and increase geopolitical tensions.
Deep dives
Tensions in the Middle East
The Middle East is poised for continued unrest in 2025, largely due to the ongoing presence of militant groups such as the Houthis and the enduring influence of Iran's Islamic regime. The disintegration of the Iranian economy exacerbates the situation, with rising instability and blackouts impacting the populace. Despite hopes for a calming environment, the combination of heightened American military presence and the geopolitical complexities of the region, including Syria and Turkey's roles, suggests that tensions may escalate rather than subside. This anticipation of conflict stems from the failure of diplomatic efforts and the lack of fundamental changes needed to foster a lasting peace.
Trump's New Foreign Policy Strategy
Donald Trump's impending return to the White House signals a potential shift towards a more aggressive and interventionist foreign policy than during his first term. His evolving stance is rooted in the understanding that America's strength, including military and economic might, is crucial to maintaining global dominance. This new approach could see the U.S. actively engaging in the volatile Middle East, particularly regarding energy strategies, where securing a natural gas pipeline from Qatar through Syria to Europe is a key focus. The contrasting foreign policy methodologies between Trump and the previous administration indicate a potential increase in military interventions that could reshape the geopolitical landscape.
Turkey's Role as a Stabilizing Force
Unexpectedly, Turkey is positioning itself as a stabilizing force in the Middle East, leveraging its influence in Syria to foster regional cooperation and reduce Iranian and Russian impact. By backing new leadership in Damascus and promoting natural gas routes through Turkey to Europe, Turkey aims to lower energy costs and alleviate inflation in Europe while enhancing its own geopolitical standing. However, this strategy risks provoking Iran, which may respond with sabotage and instability tactics as it seeks to maintain its influence in the region. The dynamics between Turkey, Iran, and other Middle Eastern nations create a complex web of interests that will significantly impact the future political climate.
In our second episode of 2025, Thomas and Aimen are doing a Q&A session with all of your questions posted on Discord, and we’ve got some excellent ones this week.
We’ll be doing a post-mortem of the zombie ideology of baathism now it has been seen off in Syria; we’ll look at why al-Julani is delaying elections for four years time; we’ll ask how HTS will be able to maintain territorial integrity in the future; and we’ll assess how Hamas still has any military capabilities. And to top it off, Thomas and Aimen will take a look at the recent terror attacks in the United States and in Germany before Christmas, bringing you the insiders view on how they were perpetrated and what security officials can do to stop them in the future.
To listen to the full episode, you’ll need to subscribe to the Conflicted Community. And don’t forget, subscribers can also join our Conflicted Community chatroom, where you can interact with fellow dearest listeners, discuss episodes past and future, get exclusive messages from Thomas and Aimen, ask future Q&A questions and so much more.