Did The Rally In Stocks Just End? | Lance Roberts

15 snips

Aug 2, 2025

Lance Roberts, a seasoned portfolio manager and market analyst known for his financial insights, joins the conversation to dissect the current stock market's bullish tendencies. He highlights signs of impending corrections, emphasizing the disconnect between corporate earnings and historical averages. The duo analyzes economic trends, including declining consumer activity and pressures on small businesses, while exploring the cautious Federal Reserve stance. With indicators suggesting recession risks, they discuss strategic investment approaches amid these uncertainties.

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INSIGHT

GDP Numbers Are Misleading

The recent GDP beats were misleading due to inventory front-loading before tariffs causing swings in imports.
Consumer spending is slowing, signaling that the economy is decelerating despite headline numbers.

INSIGHT

Slowing Economy Lowers Inflation

ISM manufacturing index below 50 indicates contraction, reinforcing that economic growth is slowing.
Slowing growth leads to declining inflation as supply and demand balance shifts.

INSIGHT

Tariffs Are One-Time Price Shocks

Tariffs cause a one-time price increase but do not create ongoing inflation.
Powell's fear of transitory inflation traps the Fed in cautious policy despite economic slowdown.

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The market has been in a "bullish stampede" for an impressive while now.

But with corporate earnings deviated by a record amount from their historic averages, extreme stock valuations, and now clear signs the economy is slowing, portfolio manager Lance Roberts sees the odds of a market correction -- and a recession -- rising.

Is there a chance that correction began on Friday?

Lance and I discuss the odds, as well as breakdown the latest economic data, this week's FOMC decision, recession chances, and Lance's firm's latest trades in this week's Market Recap.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

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