Explore the historical rivalry and aspirations for influence between China and India, border disputes, India's role as a counterweight to China, the impact on the Western social contract, understanding India's challenges, and India's potential response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
The border clashes in 2020 were a watershed moment, deepening Indian public opinion against China and pushing India closer to the West.
India's historical baggage, territorial disputes, and economic anxiety over China's regional influence contribute to the complexities of the India-China relationship.
Deep dives
The India-China Relationship
The relationship between India and China is described as a fraught rivalry marked by territorial disputes and conflicting visions of their place in Asia. While they have historically resorted to diplomacy rather than war, recent events, such as the deadly border clashes in 2020, have strained the relationship. The Indian government initially aimed for closer ties with China under the belief that dialogue and compromise could reduce tensions. However, these efforts were not successful, leading to a breakdown in trust. The border clashes in 2020 were seen as a watershed moment, evoking painful memories of the 1962 war and deepening Indian public opinion against China. The incident highlighted China's unwillingness to resolve bilateral issues diplomatically and pushed India closer to the West.
Factors Influencing the India-China Relationship
Several factors contribute to the complexities of the India-China relationship. Historical baggage, territorial disputes, and differing visions of their regional influence create friction between the two countries. India's response to the 1959 Tibetan uprising and its decision to grant refuge to the Dalai Lama complicated the relationship with China. The Indian government felt China's actions were unfair and a threat to India's historical and cultural links with Tibet. Additionally, India's economic anxiety over China's rapid growth and its impact on India's regional influence adds to the tensions. China's economic capabilities and military advancements raise concerns about limiting Indian influence and challenging India in its neighborhood.
India's Role in Countering China
While India is seen as an important player in countering China, it is not driven by a desire to help the West but rather by its own national interests. India's military capabilities, including having one of the largest armies in Asia, and ongoing military modernization efforts contribute to balancing China's growing influence. Economically, India's potential as a counterweight to China is recognized, although its own challenges and reliance on Chinese imports pose limitations. India's illiberal democracy and authoritarian tendencies raise concerns about human rights and its interventionist tendencies in other countries. However, the West's understanding of India's complex dynamics does not always translate into appropriate action.
India's Potential Response to a Taiwan Conflict
The question of how India would respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan is complex. India does not view such a conflict as aligned with its strategic interests. However, if it were to occur, India would assess its opportunities and position its response accordingly. It may seek to extract concessions from China on the boundary dispute or tilt more towards its Western partners in support of their efforts. India's fundamental desire would be for the United States to prevail in the conflict, but it would not actively work against China or collapse to support the West if such a crisis arises.
India is the fifth largest economy in the world, and now has a population larger than China’s. It’s no surprise, then, that officials in Washington often see India as a powerful non-western bulwark to growing Chinese power. On this podcast, I look at where China and India’s rivalry comes from. How much have long-lasting skirmishes on the China-Indian border damaged relations? How have demographics, economic competition and recent international conflicts affected the relationship between the two countries? And are the domestic politics of China and India in fact more similar than most westerners like to admit?
I speak to Avinash Paliwal, an international relations expert at the School of Oriental and African Studies, and the author of India’s Near East: A New History.
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