3 Stocks at Risk from Trump’s New Aluminum & Steel Tariffs
Feb 17, 2025
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Dive into the evolving cruise industry with insights on Royal Caribbean's resurgence and family-friendly offerings. Explore how new tariffs are shaking up Canadian aluminum and steel exports and what it means for major players like Alcoa. Unpack Uber's record earnings and its pivotal role in the future of autonomous vehicles amidst fierce competition. Finally, critique a Canadian company's stock buyback strategy that raises questions about long-term stability. From cruise vacations to corporate strategies, this discussion covers it all!
Royal Caribbean is poised for growth despite a heavy debt burden, fueled by post-pandemic travel demand and strategic investments.
The recent U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel exports may have varied impacts on companies, revealing the complexities within affected industries.
Uber's significant earnings growth faces competitive threats, particularly from direct consumer access to autonomous vehicle services offered by competitors.
Deep dives
The Resurgence of Royal Caribbean
Royal Caribbean Cruises has shown a strong recovery post-pandemic, emerging as a growth-oriented business with significant market share gains. Despite facing substantial losses during 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic, the company's financials indicate an upward trajectory in passenger ticket revenue and onboard sales, which has been positively affected by pent-up demand for travel experiences. Their strategic investments in private islands have further enhanced their offerings, making them more appealing to families looking for vacation options. However, the company's heavy debt load, which has increased from $8 billion to $20 billion in recent years, remains a point of concern as it aims to stabilize its balance sheet while capitalizing on growth opportunities.
Understanding Tariffs and Their Impact
Recent announcements of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. will have significant implications for Canadian producers, notably as Canada is the largest exporter of both metals to the U.S. This tariff affects industries relying on these materials, such as bicycle manufacturing, where only certain components will be taxed, creating a ripple effect throughout the supply chain. Companies such as Alcoa are likely to feel the impact, given their ties to the U.S. market, while other firms like Rio Tinto may be less affected due to their diversified revenue streams. Observers are encouraged to remain cautious, as the full extent of these tariffs on stock prices and operations may take time to clarify.
The Future of Uber and Autonomous Vehicles
Uber has demonstrated remarkable growth, generating $162 billion in gross bookings and nearly $7 billion in free cash flow, presenting itself as a profitable company contrary to earlier perceptions. The partnership with Waymo on autonomous vehicles has the potential to redefine transportation, with the initial rollout indicating high customer satisfaction and increasing usage rates for self-driving options. However, the competitive landscape remains uncertain, as companies like Waymo and Tesla may bypass Uber altogether and establish direct consumer access to their services. As the ecosystem for both autonomous and electric vehicles expands, Uber’s position as a distribution partner could be compromised, raising questions about its long-term viability in this evolving market.
Critique of Lightspeed's Strategic Direction
Lightspeed has been criticized for its rapid decline in stock value and continued cash burn despite significant revenue growth. The company recently authorized a $400 million share buyback, which has raised eyebrows among investors who question whether this capital allocation is appropriate given its profitability challenges. The management's focus on buybacks, alongside a substantial increase in total shares outstanding, suggests a reactive rather than proactive approach to shareholder value. As Lightspeed struggles to maintain a sustainable growth trajectory, there's concern that its management may be failing to address fundamental operational inefficiencies that threaten its long-term success.
Lessons from the Changing Investment Landscape
In the evolving investment environment, companies that previously thrived on cheap capital must now adapt to managing profitability amidst tighter funding conditions. Firms that have successfully navigated this shift demonstrate a stronger foundational understanding of efficiency, essential for long-term sustainability. On the other hand, those that cling to past methods, fueled by the era of low-interest rates, face considerable risk of fading away. As the market recalibrates, it is critical for investors to remain vigilant about which companies can pivot effectively and which are stuck in outdated practices that could jeopardize their future.
In this episode, Braden shares his first impressions of the cruise industry, how Royal Caribbean built a dominant brand, and whether it’s worth a deeper investment look. We then break down the latest tariff announcements from Trump and their impact on Canadian aluminum and steel exports, including key players like Alcoa, Rio Tinto, and Algoma Steel. Next, we discuss Uber’s record-breaking earnings, its role in the future of autonomous vehicles, and whether it can remain the dominant ride-sharing platform. Finally, we dive into Lightspeed’s questionable capital allocation decisions and what investors should watch for going forward.
Tickets of stocks/ETFs discussed: LSPD.TO, UBER, RCL