The hosts discuss the suspicious plane crash of a Russian chief and the arrival of heat in Serbia. They delve into the connection between Prigozhin, Wagner, and Chechen fighters. They explore the rise of a person referred to as 'he,' highlighting his connections to racketeering. The talents and accomplishments of Prigorsian are discussed, along with discussions on plane assassinations and staged deaths. The chapter also explores potential scenarios for treatment of a valuable individual and discusses defensive versus aggressive strategies in warfare.
The rise of Pragosian in the Russian invasion and his successful leadership of Wagner highlights the significant role of private military companies in modern conflicts.
Tensions and divisions within the Russian military command were fueled by Pragosian's criticism of top military commanders and the demotion of Sortavican, leading to his assassination and a consolidation of power.
The future of Wagner remains uncertain following Pragosian's assassination and the unit's disbandment, leaving questions about the potential emergence of a new private military company or the formalization of Russian state presence in African countries.
Deep dives
Pragosian's rise in the war
Pragosian, the head of private military company Wagner, played a major role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He successfully organized and led tens of thousands of troops, including convicts, in battles such as the Battle of Bachmut. Despite initial denials of involvement with Wagner, Pragosian became a prominent figure, often seen in videos giving motivational speeches. His rise coincided with the demotion of Sortavican, a top military commander, which led to tensions and resentment among the ranks.
Internal tensions and power dynamics
Pragosian's outspoken criticism of Shoygu and Gerasimov, along with his complaints of intentional disregard for his troops' safety, created divisions within the Russian military command. Sortavican's demotion added fuel to the tensions, as he had been associated with Wagner and shared similar grievances. The demotion of Sortavican and the subsequent assassination of Pragosian suggest a consolidation of power and the preservation of the vertical power structure that Putin has established.
The effectiveness and disbandment of Wagner
Wagner, under Pragosian's leadership, emerged as one of the most successful military units in the Russian invasion. However, with Pragosian's assassination and the demobilization of the unit, the future of Wagner and its activities, particularly in Africa, remain uncertain. It is unclear whether another private military company will take its place or if the Russian state will formalize its presence in African countries.
The timing and implications of the assassination
The timing of Pragosian's plane crash, occurring on the same day that Sortavican was officially demoted, suggests a coordinated effort to remove both commanders who had become sources of discontent and opposition within the Russian military. This move solidifies the vertical power structure and removes potential threats to its stability. The assassination indicates the prioritization of domestic power dynamics over international considerations.
Conclusion
While speculation remains high, the podcast episode discusses the rise of Pragosian in the Russian invasion, tensions and power dynamics within the military, the effectiveness and disbandment of Wagner, and the implications of the assassination. While the true motivations and details may never be fully known, the events signify the continued intrigue and complexity of Russian politics and military operations.