Episode 65: Dr. Qian Wang, Vanguard economic and market outlook of 2024, host Rick Ferri
Dec 21, 2023
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Dr. Qian Wang, Vanguard's Asia-Pacific chief economist, discusses the economic and market outlook for 2024. Topics covered include a return to sound money, concerns about future inflation and devaluation of fiat currency, managing budget deficits, the implications of higher interest rates on consumers, valuation and expected returns of asset classes, and the fixed income asset allocation strategy.
Monetary policy will become more restrictive, leading to lower expected returns.
Diversify globally, particularly in non-US developed and emerging markets.
Allocate more to international bonds for diversification and consider value, small-cap, and international equities.
Deep dives
Monetary Policy and Higher Interest Rates
The podcast discusses how monetary policy will become more restrictive in the future due to higher interest rates, resulting in lower expected returns.
Valuation and Diversification
The podcast mentions that US equity markets are overvalued, and recommends diversifying globally, particularly in non-US developed and emerging markets.
Bonds and Fixed Income
The podcast suggests that treasury bonds are more fairly valued compared to credit markets, and recommends a larger allocation to international bonds for diversification.
Outlook for International Markets
The podcast highlights that non-US developed markets and emerging markets have higher expected returns compared to the US market, with a preference for value, small-cap, and international equities.
Long-Term Investment Strategy
The podcast emphasizes the importance of staying diversified, taking a long-term perspective, and focusing on risk-adjusted return when building an investment portfolio.
Qian Wang, Ph.D., is Vanguard’s Asia-Pacific chief economist and global head of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model team in the Investment Strategy Group. She is also a member of Vanguard’s Strategic Asset Allocation Committee and its Time-Varying Asset Allocation Subcommittee, which oversees and determines the asset allocation strategies of global multi-asset-class portfolios such as the Vanguard Target Retirement Funds. This podcast discusses the Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2024: A return to sound money.
Qian earned a Ph.D. in business administration from Stanford University, an M.A. in economics from Duke University, and a B.A. in international economics from Beijing University. Before joining Vanguard in 2014, Qian was director of research at a sovereign wealth fund based in Asia and the chief China economist and head of greater China macro research at J.P. Morgan.
This podcast is hosted by Rick Ferri, CFA, a long-time Boglehead and investment adviser. The Bogleheads are a group of like-minded individual investors who follow the general investment and business beliefs of John C. Bogle, founder and former CEO of the Vanguard Group. It is a conflict-free community where individual investors reach out and provide education, assistance, and relevant information to other investors of all experience levels at no cost. The organization supports a free forum at Bogleheads.org, and the wiki site is Bogleheads® wiki.
Since 2000, the Bogleheads' have held national conferences in major cities nationwide. There are also many Local Chapters in the US and even a few Foreign Chapters that meet regularly. New Chapters are being added regularly. All Bogleheads activities are coordinated by volunteers who contribute their time and talent.
This podcast is supported by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, a non-profit organization approved by the IRS as a 501(c)(3) public charity on February 6, 2012. Your tax-deductible donation to the Bogle Center is appreciated.
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