Jennifer Parker, an expert associate at the National Security College ANU and former Royal Australian Navy officer, dives deep into the AUKUS initiative. She discusses the ambitious plans for Australia to develop nuclear submarines, tackling the daunting financial and workforce issues involved. With costs projected between $53 to $63 billion, the talk highlights the training needs and political will required for success. They also explore the technological leaps this program promises, including stealth capabilities and future innovations like hypersonic missiles.
Australia's 'Optimal Pathway' for acquiring nuclear submarines involves multiple phases, starting in 2027 and aiming for operational capability by the 2040s.
A significant challenge for the AUKUS initiative is the urgent need for a 30% increase in trained personnel within the Royal Australian Navy by 2040.
Deep dives
The Optimal Pathway to Nuclear Submarines
Australia's plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines is outlined through a structured approach known as the optimal pathway. This plan includes several phases, starting in 2027, which involves the rotation of U.S. and U.K. submarines through Australian naval bases to familiarize the Royal Australian Navy with nuclear operations. By 2032, Australia aims to procure second-hand Virginia-class submarines, extending operational life significantly compared to conventional submarines. Ultimately, the goal is to have the capability to operate and build a new class of submarines designed under the AUKUS partnership by the early 2040s.
Challenges in Workforce and Infrastructure Development
A significant challenge facing the AUKUS initiative is establishing a properly trained workforce capable of operating and maintaining nuclear submarines. Discussions highlight the need for a substantial increase in personnel within the Royal Australian Navy, as the workforce must grow by 30% by 2040 to meet the demands of the program. Additionally, there are concerns about sustaining ongoing training, infrastructure, and maintenance capabilities essential to support such advanced technology. Experts suggest a national strategy is required to enhance training in education systems and manage immigration to secure the necessary skills.
Financial Implications and Cost Considerations
The total financial commitment for the AUKUS submarines is approximately $368 billion, which includes both acquisition and sustainment costs. This figure comprises not only the submarines but also workforce training, infrastructure, and other essential support elements, making the actual expected spending less alarming when spread over 30 years. A critical aspect addressed is the 50% contingency included to manage the inherent risks of such a complex project. However, there are concerns that funding for the AUKUS initiative may detract from other defense projects, emphasizing the need to balance financial allocations across Australia's military undertakings.
The plan for us to acquire nuclear submarines has been dubbed the 'Optimal Pathway', but achieving it will be no mean feat. In this episode we explore what the scheme involves, what the key challenges are to making it work, and we get some cold hard facts about what it is really going to cost us.
GUESTS:
Jennifer Parker - expert associate at the national security college ANU, an adjunct fellow at UNSW, and associate fellow at the Council on Geostrategy.
Vice Admiral Peter Jones - a retired senior officer in the Royal Australian Navy (RAN), who served as the Chief Capability Development Group (CCDG) from 2011 until his retirement in October 2014.
Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead - the inaugural Director-General of the Australian Submarine Agency.