Under the Banyan Tree - Asian FX and the strong USD
Nov 28, 2024
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Joey Chew, Head of Asian FX Research at HSBC in Singapore, dives into the intricate world of Asian currencies impacted by a strong U.S. dollar. He discusses significant declines in 2023 and the future stability of currencies by 2025. The conversation highlights how U.S. economic data and local policies shape Asian FX dynamics, along with the pivotal roles of the Chinese renminbi and the Japanese yen. Chew emphasizes the interconnectedness of these currencies and the need for strategists to remain vigilant amid market volatility.
Asian currencies, while experiencing depreciation against the strong USD, display relative resilience as they remain within historical ranges.
The strong dollar's influence stems from U.S. economic data and political factors, highlighting the interconnectedness of global FX markets.
Deep dives
Understanding Asian Currency Dynamics
This year, many Asian currencies have depreciated against the strong U.S. dollar, with specific examples including the Chinese renminbi, which has fallen approximately 2%, and the Japanese yen, which has dropped about 7.5%. Despite these declines, some analysts assert that the overall weakness is manageable, as many currencies are within historical ranges and have not reached fresh lows against the dollar. Additionally, the strength of the dollar can be attributed to various factors beyond Asian currencies, with the euro experiencing a more significant decline. This context suggests that while the dollar is strong, Asian currencies are showing relative resilience.
Impact of U.S. Policies on Currency Strength
The strength of the dollar is partly linked to the U.S. presidential election results, which raised expectations for potential policy changes that could favor inflationary conditions and affect interest rates. Prior to the election, the dollar began to strengthen due to better-than-expected U.S. economic data, which led to revised expectations regarding Federal Reserve actions. Trade policies, particularly tariffs, could also bolster the dollar while imposing pressure on exporting currencies. However, the anticipated tariffs have yet to be specifically defined, leaving Asian currencies to respond more cautiously than might be expected.
The Role of the Renminbi and Yen in Currency Trends
The Chinese renminbi plays a critical role in influencing the performance of other Asian currencies due to strong economic interconnections and investor sentiment. While the renminbi is pivotal for tracking currency trends, the Japanese yen retains importance, especially as observed during episodes of significant yen appreciation impacting market dynamics. Currency movements often mirror trends seen in the renminbi, but sudden jolts in the yen can introduce volatility through mechanisms like carry trade unwinding. It is clear that both the renminbi and yen are integral to understanding the currents shaping Asian FX markets.