Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 235 to discuss mounting signs of disinflation and labor market stress in early 2025. She points to falling rents, rising vacancy rates, and a wave of both private and public sector job cuts that could force more Fed rate cuts than markets expect. DiMartino Booth warns about the confluence of student loan delinquencies, credit stress, and potential disruption to passive investment flows as demographic shifts and job losses impact 401(k) contributions.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

Links:

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and introduction

1:10 Analysis of Fed minutes and debt ceiling impact

2:04 Discussion of Treasury general account and liquidity

3:50 MBS rolloff implications

5:18 Private sector layoffs and bankruptcies

8:20 Labor market conditions and Uber driver earnings

9:31 Initial jobless claims analysis and Fed outlook

11:23 Rent and housing market dynamics

13:36 Disinflationary trends and shelter costs

15:54 Student loan impact on credit scores

16:54 Housing market inventory and spring selling season

19:49 Senior housing opportunities

20:50 White collar recession analysis

23:50 Discussion of Doge savings and flat tax proposal

26:18 Potential stimulus impact on inflation

27:58 Passive investing risks and TSP analysis

32:01 Closing remarks

Anxiety and Humility (1 Peter 5:6-11)