What did we learn from my debate with Robin Hanson? Did we successfully isolate the cruxes of disagreement? I actually think we did!

In this post-debate analysis, we’ll review what those key cruxes are, and why I still think I’m right and Robin is wrong about them!

I’ve taken the time to think much harder about everything Robin said during the debate, so I can give you new & better counterarguments than the ones I was able to make in realtime.

Timestamps

00:00 Debate Reactions

06:08 AI Timelines and Key Metrics

08:30 “Optimization Power” vs. “Innovation”

11:49 Economic Growth and Diffusion

17:56 Predicting Future Trends

24:23 Crux of Disagreement with Robin’s Methodology

34:59 Conjunction Argument for Low P(Doom)

37:26 Headroom Above Human Intelligence

41:13 The Role of Culture in Human Intelligence

48:01 Goal-Completeness and AI Optimization

50:48 Misaligned Foom Scenario

59:29 Monitoring AI and the Rule of Law

01:04:51 How Robin Sees Alignment

01:09:08 Reflecting on the Debate

Links

AISafety.info - The fractal of counterarguments to non-doomers’ arguments

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