Short Wave

Why Can't We Predict Earthquakes?

11 snips
Feb 8, 2023
In the wake of a devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria, scientists highlight the unpredictability of these natural disasters. Despite advanced models, earthquake prediction remains elusive, often offering only seconds of warning. The podcast explores the complex geological factors at play, including tectonic interactions between various plates. It also delves into the importance of seismic networks and the successful implementation of early warning systems in countries like Japan. Additionally, the evolution of global earthquake research underscores the power of collaboration and open data.
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INSIGHT

Turkey's Overdue Earthquake

  • Southeastern Turkey was overdue for a large earthquake, having not experienced one in over 100 years.
  • The Arabian Plate is driving north into the Eurasian Plate, squeezing the Anatolian Plate and causing tectonic stress.
ANECDOTE

Historical Earthquakes in the Region

  • A major quake in 1138 leveled Aleppo, Syria.
  • More recently, a 1999 quake in Izmit, Turkey, killed thousands.
INSIGHT

The Difficulty of Earthquake Prediction

  • While scientists expected a large earthquake, predicting the exact time is impossible.
  • Current earthquake models offer mere seconds of warning.
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