Episode 414: Another RPR Variation, More Cowbell, Accounting For Social Security And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 11, 2025
Apr 13, 2025
Listeners dive into aggressive risk-parity strategies, exploring the implications of unique portfolio compositions. The conversation also tackles the pitfalls of recency bias, emphasizing the need for long-term investment perspectives over immediate data. Social Security's role in retirement planning takes center stage, with contrasting views on its impact on portfolios. As the speakers navigate market uncertainties, they highlight the importance of adaptability and personal strategy in achieving financial goals. Get ready for insightful analysis and listener-driven discussions!
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insights INSIGHT
Aggressive Risk Parity Portfolio Insight
A portfolio with 20% each in large-cap growth, small-cap value, REITs, long-term treasuries, and gold performs well as an aggressive risk parity approach.
It tends to have higher returns but also higher volatility compared to portfolios with more short-term bonds or cash.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Beware Recency Bias In Investing
Avoid drawing conclusions from 5-year investment data since it is mostly noise and misleading.
Focus on performance during challenging market periods to avoid recency bias and underperformance.
insights INSIGHT
Social Security as Annuity Insight
Social Security payments are better viewed as annuities, not typical fixed income assets, since they can't be rebalanced or liquidated.
Adjust retirement spending considering Social Security, aiming to maximize quality of life rather than just meeting fixed expenses.
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In this episode we answer emails from Jeremy, Brad, and James. We discuss a more aggressive risk-parity portfolio similar to the Weird Portfolio, the problems with data analysis and recency bias and considerations in accounting for Social Security or pensions in retirement portfolio planning.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Jeremy's Portfolio on Portfolio Visualizer: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=LDhLHuhVF5zOKfTZckLT7
"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds," begins this episode, capturing the essence of breaking away from conventional investment thinking. Stepping into Frank's metaphorical "dive bar of personal finance," listeners are treated to an exploration of portfolio diversification during turbulent market conditions.
Frank tackles three thought-provoking listener questions that challenge common investing assumptions. First, he analyzes a balanced portfolio proposal with equal allocations to large-cap growth, small-cap value, REITs, long-term treasuries, and gold, explaining why this more aggressive risk parity approach shows promising safe withdrawal rates. The conversation shifts to the dangers of recency bias when a listener questions the underperformance of a 50-50 small-cap value/large-cap growth portfolio over just five years. Frank emphasizes that even a decade of data can be "just noise" when evaluating investment strategies, reminding us to focus on performance during challenging market periods rather than recent returns.
Perhaps most compelling is Frank's fresh perspective on integrating Social Security into financial planning. Challenging the notion that Social Security should be viewed as fixed-income allocation, he suggests treating it more like an annuity that reduces expenses rather than an asset within your portfolio. This shifts the conversation from wealth preservation to life maximization, encouraging retirees to consider increasing discretionary spending rather than hoarding assets.
The weekly portfolio review reveals a fascinating market story: while the S&P 500 has fallen 8.64% year-to-date and small-cap value has plummeted 19.69%, gold has surged 23.12%. This perfect illustration of risk parity principles shows how properly diversified portfolios maintain remarkable stability despite individual asset volatility. The unlevered sample portfolios remain down less than 1% year-to-date, demonstrating the power of hearing that "different drummer" when constructing your investment approach.
Have questions about building your own diversified portfolio? Email frank@riskparityradio.com or visit the website to connect directly. Don't forget to subscribe and leave a review wherever you listen to podcasts!
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