Deutsche Bank's Matt Luzzetti predicts Fed's mid-cycle adjustment while Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson advises against small-cap stocks. Vijay Rakesh previews Tesla earnings. Podcast delves into market dynamics, interest rate scenarios, Fed decisions, inflation metrics, challenges in EV industry, and leadership across industries.
Fed is poised for a mid-cycle adjustment, focusing on earnings over multiple expansion for stock appreciation.
Post-COVID economic landscape remains unstable with sectors like energy, materials, and financials thriving but facing sustainability questions.
Deep dives
Challenges Faced by Equity Markets in April
In April, equity markets began trading poorly due to the re-pricing of Fed cuts, resulting in 10-year yields exceeding targets. Moving forward, stock appreciation will likely rely more on earnings improvements than multiple expansion.
Earnings Season Insights and Multiple Contraction
During the current earnings season, there has been an equal split of companies reporting gains and losses. This trend aligns with an anticipated period of multiple contraction, where stock performance depends on substantial outperformance in earnings rather than mere multiple expansion.
Economic Uncertainty and Unbalanced Sectors
Post-COVID, the economy remains unpredictable with a mix of correct and incorrect forecasts. The scenario shifts between hard, soft, and no landing predictions have contributed to an imbalanced economic landscape. Sectors like energy, materials, and financials are thriving but face sustainability questions.
Market Response to Fed Policies and Election Outlook
The market anticipates potential fiscal support post-election, foreseeing increased government spending irrespective of the winning party. The impact of executive orders in areas like immigration and tariffs may influence market dynamics more than traditional policy changes. Expectations for Fed rate cuts have slightly shifted, reflecting evolving economic conditions and policy outcomes.
-Matt Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist & Head of US Economic Research -Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO & Chief US Equity Strategist -Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho Securities Managing Director & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist Matt Luzzetti says the Fed is primed for a mid-cycle adjustment, with 'no reason to guide towards a full cutting cycle.' Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson says 'rates are too high for the majority of the economy' and advises against small-cap stocks. Vijay Rakesh of Mizuho Securities previews Tesla earnings as the Magnificent 7 stocks' earning cycle gets underway.