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Unedited Transcript

Coming to you live from downtown Detroit. This has been zingers pre-market prep with your host Joel Kahn. And this is a vowel tile puppy here. Isn't it. And Dennis Dick, I bet the penny, I will buy the stock for a pet with everything that you need to start your trading day.

Today is the last day. I want to have a camera. I promise because I'm getting my computer later today. My, my good laptop and I'll have it at home. Uh, while I write out my corn heated, welcome to pre-market prep though. I'm Spencer. There is Dennis Joel beyond, and just a sec today, the theme of the show is problems that technology can't Southwest airlines, uh, canceling flights, uh, this weekend for, uh, uh, we'll pick pick your reason really.

Uh, cause they, they said everything. Um, it could be inflation, it could be supply chains, but uh, that's the thing of the shelf problems that technology can not fix. What talk, uh, Alibaba, which is higher again this morning, somehow some way. Um, so. That trade excuse is still on the trade from last week. Uh, we'll talk at Tim Kloss at 8 35 as we always do every Monday.

And then I hope, I think we're joining. Yeah. Matt Hammond would join the show at nine and I, yes, nine o'clock today to a preview the weekend in, in IPO land. And, uh, give us his loss on the market. Uh, as we head into, I guess, as we head into earning season, can you believe it? Earning season starts and this week we get the banks.

Is it Wednesday and Thursday? I think, I think it's one of the thinking Thursday. We're going to get the bank so good morning. Good morning. Good morning. Uh, Joel was here before I bring Joel on and before we bring Joel's charts on, wanna remind you all that the next pre-market prep Saturday extravaganza is this Saturday, this week.

It's in what's that five days from now. Yeah, October 16th, 9:00 AM. Eastern time pre market prep outcome. That's how you find it. Pre market prep. Com to learn more. Joel Dennis, Rob freezing three and a half hours Saturday morning. Also the Benzinga cannabis conferences this week, Thursday and Friday. Go to BZ cannabis.com to learn more about that.

Now, Joel will bring on your charts, sir. Good morning. And tell us how we're doing this more. Uh, good morning, Spencer. Uh, we're in the red by 21 and a half. Handles it, uh, 43 61, uh, gold or excuse me, crews making a big move to the upside. Uh, that's not good for inflation. It's up to 43 at 81 79. Gold is in the road by two 30 at 17 55, 10.

So much for inflation hedge. Silver's in the red by 13 cents at 2257 Bitcoins. Having a good day working its way up towards 60 K that's up $1,915 and 57 0 9 5 and the theories. Take it a little breather down 49, 75 and 36 0 9 50. And that awkward. Hello? No, that's me. Sorry, I'm trying. I'm trying to sorry, my computer, when I go on mute like that, my computer is slow to bring me back.

So I apologize. Um, so first off, before we go any further, we have to wish Dennis, a happy Thanksgiving today is Canadian Thanksgiving. I'm not sure what that means. I just know what to think. So it's the same as your Thanksgiving. It's just on a different day. Oh, it is. Yeah. Okay. So, okay. So happy Thanksgiving.

Thank you for you on my Thanksgiving. Look at me. I know the bond market is closed, but Dennis has not. Yeah. So I'm here for you. No matter what the bond market is closed, the Canadian markets are closed, but the us markets are open. And I'm here for you to tell you my thoughts. And then I going like them.

If you're long texts, dark will tell you that much. So our happy Thanksgiving, happy Columbus day to all, let's start with like the, the headline of the weekend. And then it'll go into that conversation, which was Southwest airlines, uh, had all kinds of problems. Uh, if you were flying them, I'm sure you know about it.

Uh, they canceled, uh, over 1800 flights this weekend, uh, dramatically more than any other airline American canceled, 63 Delta canceled, three United canceled six, um, and Southwest basically blamed it on. They basically took a, um, a dart and it through to the dark board as to why they blame, they, they went and did on staffing shortages.

They'll blame it on extreme weather and they'll blame that on air traffic control regulations. Um, and that led to almost 30% of their schedule on Sunday. I was reading. It was, you know, the conspiracy theorists are out there saying that all the, um, that there's, uh, they don't want to mandate the vaccine.

So you had a walkout of a lot of pilots that don't want the bans vaccine mandates. I'm not sure if there's truth to that or not, but an Southwest comment on any of that, it's like anything it's like, I'm sure there are some truth to it. I know, like the airlines just, I don't remember who I think it was Southwest and you noted, just had a fi laid off a bunch of people who do, who didn't want to get the vaccine.

Um, I don't know. I, that's not, that's not what, that's not what they sell. Oh, Southwest. That's not what Southwest. That's what everybody on Twitter is saying. So I'm not sure what is true or what is not true here. And you know, this is an issue though. Obviously the one thing we can say is you have seen a little bit of a reopening trade in the last few weeks.

It has fizzled out in the last few days, last few trading days. And you look at American airlines starting to approach back to the lows of the move. Um, Al UV has been one of the, it had 10% move over a 10% move in a week and a half. Now we're pulling back. I don't know where this headline goes. It's not good when they're canceling flights is going to piss off a lot of people.

But not only that it's like, okay, well, you know, what is the real reason? Why are you covering up the real reason? Why or are those real reasons something to get concerned that it's going to be more flight canceled? 'cause that's not good. You know, I don't know. I think like the fact that he was so concentrated on, on one airline, Southwest is not the only airline company I was in flights.

They canceled though, right? I'm saying it's not good for Southwest airlines. The fact that it wasn't the fact that it's, the problems were mostly confined to them when they're, when they're not the only airline to mandate vaccines somewhere else. That's maybe not the case. I, I, I'm sure there is maybe some truth to that, but I, I don't think that's probably the main reason.

Um, has a family member that works in there and he thinks it's 100% of both the airlines. I saw a lot of people talking about the vaccine. There's a lot of people talking about it, so I don't know. What's true and what's not true, but well, all we know regardless is, is again, of, of the, of the, of all the flights canceled this weekend, 99%.

We're from one airline. So never a good thing. Uh, that's why the stock is down this morning. I would presume. Yeah. And they're in a lot of people, you know, obviously when he canceling those, that amount of flights is a lot of people that get stranded. Obviously it's a holiday weekend up here in Canada. Um, but you know, it's a weekend.

People are traveling and doing things and obviously, you know, it ticks you off when your flight get canceled and you hear about thousand flights could be canceled wholly. So obviously stock gets slammed here today. When you got these kinds of headlines, it depends what the next headline looks like. Now, all of a sudden you got headline risk on this, Joel.

And you know, we talk about different stocks. I try to often trade away from the news, but if I'm trading tactics. I try to trade away from the news for the most part, because we know when you got a next headline, you can say, oh, I got a nice set up here or bad headline comes and that can drive it down.

Headlines, Trump, all. So, you know, you had a stock that was trending higher. You had a stock, those shorts in life. And now all of a sudden that headline hits and the stock, you know, it's gonna probably challenge, you know, that 50, 88 low from a week and a half ago. So what are you saying, Joel? Maybe not today.

Uh, that'd be, you know, that'd be down another box 60. Um, if you've been waiting for a gap, fill here, uh, this little gap on September 30th, down to 52 and a quarter, uh, you did get it into pre-market. Who knows if you're going to get it into regular session, but that if you look at the upper right chart, Man you're falling into no man's land here.

And Dennis mentioned the parallels at 51. So if you want to get it on the cheap, uh, you know, maybe not today, but you know, over the next couple of days, um, also Southwest has, uh, has a history of like coming out with some bad news and then coming out with some more bad news and, uh, you know, 18. Okay. Uh, so, you know, if you want to hang out for that $51 area, I'm going to take you to get a look at it.

I think you'll get to look out eventually too. And, and also, uh, you know, I'm not sure what their, their hedging strategies are. Uh, but you talk about, you know, the biggest expense for airlines is fuel costs and, uh, crude's trading up to 40. Uh, like I said, I don't know their hedging strategies. So lot of, lot of negative things here in the airlines where the reopening, we discussed the reopening trade, where that's at, I don't know, but that hands-off on the airlines today.

If you want to get cheap, put a bid out there at 51 0 5. If you're looking for a gap, fill on the upside, you need to get to 53 52. So I don't know, I would take a big pop, the people making money. And this is a good segue into our whole next, probably 25 minute discussion. The people who are making money trading right now, the people who are buying commodities, who are buying physical assets.

If you're the user of commodities, that's not what you want to be in right now because you are seeing inflation something rampant in certain areas. I do believe we're going to see a hundred dollar oil here in the near future. Where are we now? Hi, the front month, canned contract, 81 74. I think you're going to see a hundred bucks.

I mean, why not? You know, and I'm not a big crude long-term bull, but I will tell you right now, this is the type of environment where you're needing physical stuff. And I was talking obviously Thanksgiving weekend here in Canada is seeing lots of family, lots of my wife's family, isn't trades. And he started talking with them and talking about different things.

But even just talking with another friend, he had a Tacoma that he bought, um, four years ago, twenties, 2016 or 2017 Tacoma, um, goes to the deal. He bought it for 40 2004 years ago. Brand new goes to the dealership, talking a trade in, you know, how much they give him for his truck. So he paid 42,000 for the Chuck four years ago.

Guess what the dealership would give them for the dealership. We know you guys know $38,000. So a four-year-old truck. You can get almost what you paid for it. Four years ago, that's called when we're having problems, getting trucks, that's called demand and short supply and Mets you're in the background.

You were saying the same thing was happening with you. So you can verify this conversation. Mitchell, you hiding back there. He's lurking. I just want to say that Luke is in the chat saying he had his flight canceled over the weekend. So I go, not home here. I don't know where Luke's at and he might be stuck in Florida maybe.

Um, and, and, uh, yeah, so, so used cars, right? So you sparked, but we know that w we, we know that that's, but it's not mind blowing that you, you know, you think about the, what they used to always say, you know, even go back three, four years ago, you buy your brand new car. As soon as you drive it off. The lot, it loses like a quarter of its value.

Not, COVID not this new environment here now. Now you get, you have to drive a four years and I hold. What are we in? This is the crazy thing is, is you saw this happening. What, what? Five, four or five months ago, right. Started happening. But it's going rampant right now. Like I know people paying above sticker prices for stocks.

It hasn't worked itself out in five months. That's my point. It has to work itself out. That's the question like, you know, the supply chain, it's not just, you know, chips, it's everything like talking to a, you know, a plumber friend as well over the weekend. Same thing. Can't get, you know, it can't get the apex or pirate or whatever it is, the piping, you can't get that to the abs piping can't get that either.

You know, they can't get a lot of things. So they're using different things. They're using more expensive things. I mean, you know, it, it, it's an issue. So, you know, and it's not just an issue chips, did they say, why did they say why? I don't know if anybody knows why on a lot of this stuff. Like, I don't know.

Do we even know why, like the chip shortage, do we know all the reasons what's behind, where I talk about it and who's impacted by it? Do we never really know, like the deep down reasons? Why is it all demand? What, or is it all just, we just, we can't, we can't ship it over. Is it all stuck on ships? Is that what it is?

It was one of the things where like demand went to zero and then it went back, it came back like overnight, right? Like, so that everyone shut down and then all the, all the manufacturers and they weren't prepared to ramp back up. Right. So, so now they're playing catch up. And also you had that fire, you had that fire at the factory that makes half of the chips for cars in the world, in Japan that didn't help things.

Um, so maybe it's just a question of like everyone prepared for a warm winter during COVID and when demand came back two months, Then everyone was caught off guard. Um, but you're right, Dennis. No one really. I'm sure that's the only, oh, there's a number of reasons. And then you can go back into the labor shortage.

Probably one of the main reasons for all of it, because we've, we have a labor issue. We have a labor issue where there's a lot of people who obviously are not going to work for minimum wage anymore, or they're not going to work and you know, or they're just not good. There isn't a demand to do it. And COVID did change like the mindset to where family is more focused.

So if you were close, I talk to my, my neighbor. Now here's a prime example, three years from retirement. COVID hits like not taking early retirement. So there, you're seeing that, you know, where people are close to retirement and they're like, okay, I'm out to it because you know what? Family is more important that you start to like prioritize what's important life.

This whole pandemic did that change the mindset to a certain extent, to a lot of people live to work. Um, but now you're seeing a lot more people, you know, that saying I just work to live and you know what I want. You know where you're sitting, you know what you're seeing, uh, uh, uh, the biggest shortages and the most concerning health theory to healthcare, to healthcare James, with the big word stagflation, you can't, you can't get people.

You can't get nurses in hospitals. Now. They are they're, they're actually paying traveled nurses. Like, I didn't believe the figure that Lisa told me that they were paying people to go out, uh, you know, billings Montana or something, but people are like, they're, they're going, they're going to be moving to uprooting their family for three to six months.

And they're making more in that time period than they did in, in two or three years, just because of the shortage that that's the biggest economic impact that people don't realize from COVID is the toll that it's taking on our healthcare system and people who wants to be a doctor now who wants to be a nurse now who want to get out.

So you have shortages now and you have people not wanting to go into industry. I mean, that, that is my biggest concern. The question is, is this, sorry, Spencer. I was going to say, is this all transitory? Is this really all transitory? And like, I'm asking, you know, chat, you got. Do we get through all these shortages?

Do we get through these labor shortage? And we look out like good tear crystal ball and try to project it 12 months out, 24 months out. Are we past these problems and to go back to business as usual, or is this a new world where it's actually going to be, you know, inflation, we're going to have inflation involved.

We're going to have labor shortages for the on, you know, for, for a longer period of time. And you know, the big word that James just said, stagflation, is that on the table here? I know you brought it up last week to Juul. It's a word that we have not used, you know? And I have not heard from in probably decades.

You think about stagflation and if you just don't, if you never heard of stagflation before we can just go and give you the actual meaning of it, read it. So I don't butcher it, but you know, stagflation obviously increasing prices is a big part of it as like Google ads. So a situation which the inflation.

Is high economic growth rate slows and unemployment remains steadily high while the unemployment rate is low. But the main reason the unemployment rate is lower than it was. Okay. We can say it's lower, but it's not high for one reason is that you, because to be included in the unemployment, if we clued on labor figures, you have to be seeking work.

We have a lot of people who aren't seeking work. So maybe, you know, it's not as high of employment, but it's not going to show up in unemployment stats. If a lot of people are saying, I don't want to go back to work. So that's, you know, what's throws off the stats too. So is stagflation the question because we don't really have, you know, steadily high unemployment here right now.

But at the same time, if we have a lot of people that were willing to work two years ago, now they don't want to work. Is that really, you know, uh, indicative of, you know, oh, just everybody that can get a job and they can, I mean, you can't get a job if you want to get a job, but it stagflation on the table.

I, I, I dunno. I think part of what makes. It's so difficult is like, unlike with a pandemic, like there was a lot of unknowns last spring, but the one thing we didn't know was like, Hey, if we ever get a vaccine, then that will change the game. And then it, it took, it took six months, but we got a vaccine.

Right. Um, but with this, literally, no one knows, like nobody knows. And that's part of the problem is because no one knows there are no expectations. You can't say you, you, you can't set the bar and, and then try to come in above or below because there, there is no bar, like what are you going to say? Six months?

That's that's a guess. That's a guess. It'll all be better in six months. We don't, we have no idea. There was no, there was no frame of reference for anyone. All you have is the word transitory, which just means. Temporary, but temporary is like, this is bad. And there's nothing else that they can say. We've said this on the show a dozen times in the last month, there's nothing else they can say.

They can't come and say, this is sticky and sticking around forever because then they have no excuse. They need to start jacking rates. Because the only way you can really control inflation is to start raising interest rates. And you can't raise interest rates because the whole entire us economy and the world economy for that matter.

And you in China, it's built on debt. So you can start raising rates significantly. You can raise them a quarter of a percent. You can raise my half a percent. Is that going to slow down inflation? Probably not start raising the two, three, 4% it does, but then everybody loses their homes. Then he got major problems going on.

So, I mean, there's really stuck. I don't know. Even, I don't even see the solution here. That's why they keep digging the hole. Okay. So, so now here's the question because no one really knows, right? It'll work itself out when it works itself out, whether it takes two months. Two years who knows, but all we Indian environment now where technology stocks, because technology companies have been your best play for the last 12 years, um, where they are not your leader, because these are all problem.

Most of these problems, most, not all, but most of them are problems that are irrelevant of technology, right? Technology can't fix a supply chain shortage. They can't fix a labor shortage or maybe kind of a little bit, but it, you know, it, it can be, these are problems that are not solved by a new app. You know what I mean?

Or like a zoom video conference call. Right. It's like, it's bigger than that. So, so the question is, do, do you want to like Dennis talk about commodities, right? Being in an inflationary environment, you do you want to own technology stocks right now? And when I say right now, I mean like going at 12.

Because we all, man, listening to you, two guys, go on. I don't, I don't want to own a shoe, anything. Yeah. But, but that's, doesn't work though. If you go to cash, all you are definitely getting killed. So, you know, I have traders in our affirmed bright trading. They make pretty good money and they're like, I got to get buy.

They're buying. Like they're still buying houses. They're still buying stuff. They like scared to be in the buying crypto. They're scared to be in cash. There is literally a lot of people that are actually scared to be in cash. And I'm kind of wonderful. I mean, I have quite a bit of cash sitting there and I'm like, it's been the wrong play because yeah.

You know, the markets haven't really gone anywhere, but my cash is getting just slowly deep deteriorates in value because of inflation. So the safest play really, if you want to fight inflation as a commodity trade it's to own stuff, real estate it's to own stuff. But then again, you're paying, you know, in a bubble, you're paying an, a bubble pricing for some of this stuff, but that's been where the money has been made in physical assets.

Use cars who makes money on their used car. Who makes money on the used car? We had three people when we were having that conversation in the chat saying they sold the car that they bought for more than what they paid for it. Who makes money? What environment are we in when you make money on your used car?

Use boats started last year. It's incredible. We had a couple of cars come up leases over the last few years. And I was just, you know, and I looked at the, this is really before couple of them we bought before COVID and I was like, and I never do that ever. It's like, oh, you can't, you know, you're getting ripped off.

If you're buying a car after you, at least there for a couple of years. And I'm like, I don't care. I own the car. And then, uh, we did that. I mean, we also have very, very low mileage on them. So Dana is going to do the same thing as you know, she's got a Elise coming up. She goes, yeah, I would get a new car.

There's no cars out there, you know, boom, throw the cash down and driving it, you know, drive it into the ground. But, uh, man, you guys are, I mean, and arc investment is going to be, if, if we do stay, if the inflation stays, that's the way wrong. So it's going to be high growth tech that gets hit. And why again, because I want to explain it to people who are new to, you know, to new to the show.

We've explained this before, but if you have an inflationary environment, high growth tech is a play on future earnings. Those future earnings are worth a lot less in a high inflationary environment because cash today, because you can spend the cash day is worth a hell of a lot more than cash tomorrow.

So when you're buying these high growth plays, that don't matter. They're just burning cash. Those aren't the, what if it does well in an inflationary environment because those future earnings are worth less. And that's why you're seeing tech stocks, some of the future, you know, some of the smaller tech stocks really struggle in this environment where obviously you've seen the commodity stocks like Exxon Mobil and Chevron, and you know, the steel stocks have come back off a certain extent, but it's still up significantly and full disclosure.

I'd be a buyer of steel stocks right now because I think they pull back enough. I do think they start to eventually go back to the highs and the move. That that's where if you believe that the inflation isn't going away, that's, you know, if you, if you think this inflation and, and Kathy would've been on CBC and she thinks it is transitory, and that's why she's positioning herself and buying these high.

And she might be right. If the inflation goes away, she'll end up getting paid for that call. So right now, your investing strategy, long-term investing strategy is all about whether you believe this inflation is going to be sticky and stick around for a long time or other. It really is transitory. And one year from now, we actually have falling prices, or we have, you want to get back to the business as usual.

I don't know if anybody has the answer to that, then they'll go up. But when they start to come down, they won't come down at the same rate that they went up. Th I, I, it's hard for prices to go down it's labor. So one thing people are asking more money for their jobs and they're getting it. How many people take a pay cut?

You don't often you might be able to get your gas price down a little bit, but you don't get a lot of people taking a pay cut. So I think any increase in labor. Is permanent. You're not going to get the labor costs back down. So as you increase, you know, people are paying more or they have to, to get the people.

If they don't want to work, they got off for more money. I mean, those are more permanent pricing now, you know, it's the price of lumber come down. Yes. As the price of some other commodities come down. Yes. Some, you know, obviously oil, no oil is starting to break out and go up again here. And I've never been an oil bull, but I'll tell you in this environment and inflationary environment, oil is probably going to continue to go up.

Maybe the bottom line here is you got it on physical things. I don't think the answer, the answer is not going all cash. Just to be clear. I don't think that's the answer, but, but maybe, maybe I, maybe it's owning physical things over digital things for now from, but the digital assets are doing pretty good too, because crypto is the new gold and you can see, this is just, this is incredible in itself too.

And every single economics book is a fail on this one because the best inflation hedge is supposed to be gold. And this has just been incredible. We've got inflation. Like we haven't seen in 25 years and gold and silver is going down. I mean, that's incredible in itself. I don't is it there? Is there a potential catch up trade eventually in gold and silver?

And we had this question last week, or is it just the fact that maybe gold and silver? Isn't the gold silver. It used to be, how long is it until gold starts trending on Twitter? Right? Because everyone wants to play the catch up trade in gold. That's going to happen. And that's going to have the you right now.

I mean, relative to itself, I mean, we are sitting near them. We're just sitting there on the 20, 24 off 2021. Lowe's I'm I'm, I'm calling it now. That's going to happen this year. So should we be buying gold? We don't own any, I mean, either, I don't know if I really want to, I own a little bit of crypto look at the Bitcoin.

Doesn't look like it wants to go back down. It looks like it wants to make new, highest to me, that chart when I'm looking at. This isn't very interesting conversation. Obviously we have our investor's hat on big time here right now. We're trying to project out which isn't my cup of tea, you know, projecting prices a year from now, but it's an interesting discussion.

So I know there's a lots of, you know, the textbook would say, if we're really going into this and this inflation sticky, the textbook would say economics textbook would say, buy gold, buy silver, but what hasn't been working and why, if it hasn't been working up to this point in time, is it going to just start working all of a sudden, maybe there's a catch-up trade or maybe it's just not what it used to be.

I bet you, there was a catcher trade only because it's the most obvious thing in the world. Let, let, let's go to China for a second here. Cause that trade, I don't know how long I thought it was going to is going to go on for it, but it's still going, I guess I thought maybe two or three days, but no, we're we're on week two now.

And, uh, it's still known. Wow. Yeah. What a turnaround. I mean, Alibaba, we called that. I did not think it was going to go up. I said, eventually it's going to have a 10 point squeeze had it two days later, that 10 point squeeze is now turned into a 30 point squeeze. It was too easy on the shorts. Now, all of a sudden it's like, everybody's looking at Alibaba thinking, man, I want to pull back.

And that thing to get in, including myself, I have some of the long-term portfolio, but I wanted more on for a trade and I never did it. Should it did it. And hopefully some people did, but wow. I mean, there's been a turnaround, not only obviously in Alibaba, but you go to the E M you go to the FXI maybe a better example.

I mean, we're up significantly three days in a row now. So this is, you know, September was a really ugly month for the FXI and basically we've almost got all the losses back from September in course of three days. So nice. Uh, it's, uh, I can't, I saw the name of the company on CNBC, like mew, Trent, Merck, Tran, or something like that.

They were expecting like a huge fine on that company. And it was only half of what it's T they believe, uh, uh, Chinese technology companies. So once again, you know, it's the news, I mean, absence of bad news and or good news is WhatsApp propelling a that the Ali Baba hair, I chose the name. I mentioned that whether that makes riding on a scooter down on main street, where it's a picture of him on social media, he was on Instagram when he caught him on Instagram.

That's why it's going on. He was riding on a scooter. That's a joke. It's not sure. The 4:00 AM open was a little bit overzealous air. We got over 1 72 and now we're leaking a little bit. I'm not sure if there's anything on the dailies at 1 72, once again, just a news driven marketing. If we did a get up, if we did get a pop to 1 71 64, just technically speaking, that was your high on September 10th.

Uh, but just starting to come, come in a little bit. It looked like that pre-market high looked safe. And then man, now you just got another daily gap the way down here to 1 60, 2 78. So kind of hired, unless you just taking this thing overnight to catch these moves. Sometimes you catch it the right way you sped.

So you were talking on the, on the show on Friday, like what'd you just lay out a shorted, some level in this thing and it's just like, man, calm down. So, you know, I don't know, maybe 1 72 was a number, but it's coming in. Maybe you get a nice pullback. Maybe somehow you make a high in this area. I don't know, 1 72, 1 73 or something.

Then he gets more bad news and you drift lower and you get a chance to buy a little bit of a discount. But, uh, since Charlie, since Charlie made that purchase, we talked about that. I think on a. Yeah. I wrote a triple D's call up on that one yet defined risks down there. And now that defined risk 1 41, 1 42 is when we were talking about it.

And, uh, that defined risk is looking pretty good right now, shorting volume. And now is the equivalent of buying it like a month ago or two months ago, right? It's hard. Like, yeah, you're shorting a rocket ship. You're in rocket ship mode. I don't like shorting rocket ships. I mean, we're up 10 up 10 up basically 10 bucks every day for three days go one 40 to one 70.

Incredible move. It looks to me like that 1 78, but I thought it might stall out at one 60 and it just had like that level through like a hot knife through butter, but rocket ship blasting through the ceiling, 1 78, 1 79, I would think would slow it down. But who knows? I mean, I'm still long at long-term account pullbacks, maybe again interested, but.

I'm more interested in buying the commodity stocks on pullbacks. To be honest, I'm more interested in buying. I mean, some of the steel stocks have not, you know, like us steel sun, and

the steel stocks have not participated. They have not been participating and maybe, you know, the let's give it, give them credit where credit is due. I mean, Cleveland, let's go to this one. What's $5 and 2020. And I went to $25. So, you know, at a certain point you can say, oh yeah, it's trading three or five times earnings, but these is, you know, we've said this before, is this as good as it gets for this environment for steel as well?

But I don't know. I just think prices pricing of commodities, including steel it's may continue to go higher. And obviously then you look at those Turks and you think, okay, well, if you want it to dip, you gotta dip on these things. CLF had news today. They're buying, uh, Ferris processing and trading for total enterprise value, $775 million.

So they're making it, making an acquisition. Um, but I don't know. Oh, that's that's capital one, Joel. Well, what did you say?

I'm like Cleveland cliffs. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't like those. The monthly looks pretty good to me. I don't know. No, still trending higher. I would say if you were putting it on, we always say you can put any trade on as long as you know where your out is. It's very defined. I mean, you have look back the last three months back in June, 1895, July low, 1851 recent low in September, 1880 six, nineteen thirteen.

And you can call it four lows right in the same area. So you got below 18, maybe you cut it out. I'm long, full disclosure, one Cleveland cliffs. I stuck it in the longer-term account. I'm almost tempted to buy.

Like, I, I feel like I needed to take away from this show is I need more physical world exposure. Uh, I don't know. I don't know what yet. And I don't know, I don't own any oil, maybe the top on all this collapse coming, but yeah. That's the other thing you gotta look is like, you know, okay, well, the commodity is good.

No, one's going to be able to afford that before this stuff and build the stuff right. Well, eventually they will, but if there is an argument there eventually prices go up enough. It does hit demand with Lavelle. That's why lumber got silly and people stopped building decks and stop building stuff until it came down to reasonable pricing.

So I forward four years already by now. There you go back to a firm. Look, you can bring it straight back into a car, bring it back to a, for a rock and a boat. The stock that Spencer man. I know, I guess we can't use stops in this environment, but I tell ya, this dock is maybe you think about what technology stocks have done and they've done.

Most of them have done a hell of a lot of nothing in the last, you know, three months it's been not that great. You can bring up a R K K and you can say it's not been a great environment for growth tech. I can. The last you were in a. And affirm has just been an absolute monster. We talked about this on the show at like $65.

And I was like, I should buy some of that. And I never did. And then Spencer actually did buy some and he got stopped out. But regardless, I mean, $141 a day stock made a new all-time high again on Friday, no point worrying about, you know, in stocks, making new all time highs and keep riding them. I bought at a hundred sold at 90, like the genius of Dan.

Yeah. Got it. Got it. Got close to the old time high. He actually had it all time high, uh, at a little bit higher, 1 46 90, but that was in February. Oh my gosh. Joel here. Right? I didn't even realize the firm had been hit so hard. It was back after the stock had its IPO three days after it. Maybe three days after I'm the weeklies, but 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 weeks after the other thing too, is it P pay later?

Is you, are you paying in flight inflation? Yeah, that doesn't sound that great. You paying more money later? Yeah. Maybe. Well, no, but if your price is locked in, so maybe it's not, you're not actually, because I don't know how it works. I usually pay off my credit card every month. So I don't know if your price is locked in.

You're getting a better deal. I mean, somebody was saying to me, I was leaving. I was joking online for that business. You were joking too. Like the best business model could be, you know, buy now pay never. And then somebody said, well, that's MasterCard's business model. I was like, oh, it actually is. They love that when you're buying your credit card and you'd never pay it off and pay those 18% rates.

All right. So it's him and get his thoughts on all of this inflation talk and he will talk market structure with this year right now. Let's do it.

I look forward to that every Monday,

the day is not come. It just doesn't get off to a good start unless you're doing that. So it's really dark outside where you are. So we can't tell where you are right now. I am in Steamboat, Steamboat Springs. And, uh, I'll tell you, it was just spectacular yesterday. The, uh, so that direction is Mount Werner, which is about 10,600 feet.

And it was, it was, it was snow covered and a little crown of clouds around it. And yet about halfway down the mountain, the aspens are still orange and yellow and red. It was just, I mean, we, if I get to be here all the time and I'm still just stunned by how beautiful. So, uh, that's where I am. Yeah. Yeah. I see.

You've got Jay Powell with you today. Yeah. We have special guest on the show here and we were asking just for supporting, well, good thing. You're talking about buy now pay later then, because that's the, I mean, that is the, that is the Fed's mantra.

Don't worry about the cost. Just spend that's and spend what we've had a long discussion here. We've been talking inflation. We've been talking obviously a lot of things that you know, are out of our control with the supply chain. We've been talking about labor shortages. We haven't been talking that nice about technology stocks here really this morning, because the one thing is when you have higher inflationary environment, high growth tech, doesn't do as well.

And we've seen that if you can look at. Who is a great indicator for high growth tech. It's actually not too far off of its 52 week low. And then you have commodities that are just blasting off oil, making new highs, looking like it wants to go to $100 a barrel, but sometimes you get the Tim on here and he can break down and look into the market structure and look and see what's under the hood.

And that's what we want to do with you today here, Tam is what's under the hood here. First. Let's just talk technology, technology stocks. Okay, well, and the point from a trading perspective for, for folks who use a edge market structure, edge.com, uh, the whole point is we want to follow the money who cares really ultimately where that money is going.

I mean, I think it is it's, uh, it's part of being a well-informed citizen of the Republic to understand how some of these things work. But ultimately what we want to do as traders is not confused, busy with productive, a great line that I got from an Israeli, uh, finance executive who told me, Tim, we try not to confuse busy with productive, and I thought that's a useful line.

I'm going to make use of that. And it's very easy to get caught up in that traders where you think, well, surely. Tech has got to do well. And then it's not doing well. You see energy doing well. We want to follow the money and take advantage of the swells that it creates in the market and then leave before the wave disappears.

So how do we think about this from the standpoint of an inflationary environment? Keep in mind that inflation is nothing more than your money. Doesn't go. As far as. It's that's the way to think about it. I, Spencer and I talked, I think I was driving Spencer crazy with this right, Spencer. I w I think it was on Thursday.

Was it Thursday or Friday? I can't remember. It was the day. I know, I know it's the same to me. Uh, but I, I like, this is my point and we'll talk about energy because really that's where the money has been. And we talked about it last Monday. I said, if you look across the dashboard at edge, clearly the best thing is in.

Uh, I bought AMR and GM and Nokia. All of those did six to eight times better than the broad market I bought and sold them all last week. Uh, again, just going where the money is, we talked about GM. I was wrong on one account. It did not become a meme stock, but I was right. That it would go up six or 7%, which it did.

And so we'll talk about where that money is going. Here's the thing to understand everybody, you know, you, you want to clear a room, start talking about economics or monetary policy or even market structure, but this is the constant. It takes people and money to make stuff and to provide services. So if we want a lot of that occurring, then we have to have a stable currency.

So money has to be worth something predictable and wages have to be predictable. If, if the government intervenes and says here, we'll give you a check. Then labor becomes more scarce. There isn't enough of it. And if the federal reserve increases the supply of money, it takes more of it to make stuff. So those are the two things that undermine growth.

If you discourage people from working and you create more money, it has the opposite effect of what it's, what the government is telling us. It should have. Well, that's not the stuff we want. Prosperity always comes from knowing what the value of money is so that business can get more efficient. And the cost of things can go down.

That's what TAC has traditionally done. A, an iPhone goes from costing a fortune to being approachable by everybody. How does that happen? Well, PR productivity improves the distribution, the production of goods. It gets more efficient and that, that gets very difficult in the current environment. And that's why T tech is struggling.

Uh, so we want to think about this traders and you don't even have to think very hard about it. All you have to do really is look at the supply and demand of money. And if the supply of money to the fangs is diminishing, don't buy the fangs. Where's the money in. Energy and financials. Why is it increasing?

I don't even care that much about it from a training perspective. All you need to worry about is where the money goes. Sure. I can tell you why. If interest rates go up, financials are going to perform better. If there are more dollars in circulation, the cost of energy is going to increase and cotton.

Cotton's at a 10 year high look at copper, pick your, as you said, Dennis, look at all the commodities. Why are they more expensive? Because the denominator money keeps shrinking because we're creating more money than with the output that is supposed to support it. That's why this is all occurring. So if we wanted a beautiful prosperous economy, we would want money that had stable value.

It's not more complicated than that, but that we don't have that. So we have to adapt to it. Right. That's how it is. So broadly speaking, what, where is the. Said to me right now at this point. Cause I mentioned at the top of the show, we do have earning seasons kind of starting this week with the bank, speaking of the financials and then more so next week's right, right.

Let's well, let's look at it. You know, I love to do that. And traders, this is to me, what makes edge very simple market structure, edge.com. You can try it for free. It's a, it's a way to just take, take, take two weeks and think about supply and demand. If it's not right for you, don't worry. We don't care. We don't require any commitment from you.

You can just try it. So, uh, so here's, here's how we think about this. Uh, the money ebbs and flows. And it does. So in measurable ways because of market structure, which Dennis is an expert in, uh, that's the, the rules that govern how trading works, uh, on what I did the demo on Thursday, uh, I show, I use my own interactive brokers account and I showed everybody how my stuff is trading.

You know, where's it going? And how come it gets all that most people don't realize it's all fragmented. There isn't a lot of supply in the market actually, but that makes it measurable. We can see supply and demand. So suppose that the market had a supply demand scale of 10. So the closer to 10 you are the better from the standpoint of excess demand.

Well, here's the broad market right now, Spencer it's 5.1. It's almost dead even. And if we looked at that pattern over time, what we're showing here is SP. Uh, that state street ETF that tracks the S and P 500 and the underlying waxing and waning, ebbing and flow of domain for S P Y. And the stocks that comprise the S and P 500.

That's it? I mean, spy is really a derivative. It trades in place of the 500 stocks in the S and P 500. So you don't have to own them all. Uh, but notice this one Senate, when, when demand hits a peak and begins to decline leave, you may not be exactly at the top, but you're going to know when demand, bottoms and begins to rise.

I had a great week trading last week. Uh, then you can return, but return to the things that have excess demand, I'm telling you it's not more complicated than that. So let's look at, uh, let's look at our own portfolio. Just going back to that chart right there. Could you go back to that chart right there?

Absolutely. Let me back it up. I mean, is it that, I mean, if you're looking at like the price and then the levels of demand, it reaches doesn't yet that look like you're getting lower highs in the chart and then lower highs in demand. Yeah. Give you a very isn't that a very bearish looking chart. Yes, it is.

Joel. Yes. That is a very astute observation. And if you go back, let's just go year to date. We started the year with a very strong momentum market, because look at the peaks. This is like the backbone of the continent, the Rocky mountains. We've got shifts. We've got staggering peaks. Well, now the mountains are old.

It looks like Vermont. I mean, they're just right there. Just deteriorating. And you're absolutely right. That's why I think we are at great risk. We have been in accelerating risks since April of a significant pullback. It has it's there's, it's, I've used this line before. So if you, you know, and it's not because my mental faculties are deteriorating, wholly, they are deteriorating.

Uh, but it's a great line. It's a line from the sun also rises Ernest Hemingway book, and the two characters are talking and one says to the other, well, how'd you go broke. And he says, slowly than all that. And then it's, it's how the market falls apart. It does not fall apart all at once. And you go show Zion what happened?

No. It started to deteriorate here that traders, there, there are plenty of opportunities to trade. You just have to look where the money is going. If the money stops going to the whole market, is it going to tech? Is it going to consumer discretionary? Is it going to large caps? Is it going to small caps?

All of that is measurable. And you just want to put yourself where it is. I only trade 30% of the days that the, you know, the market has 252 trading days in a typical year. So 30% of the time I'm trading stuff. And, uh, and, and I, I crushed the broad market by following demand. Uh, but you're absolutely right.

That is Joel. You'd look at this pattern and say, well, those peaks are getting weaker and weaker and weaker. Well, that's a, that's a sign for us traders. You should not have all of your money exposed to a market where the demand is beginning to weaken. Now you've gotta be very selective and we have options expiring.

Starting Thursday, Thursday will be index options, expirations Friday, triple, which then Monday a new stairs, Monday, the new series in a weakening market. It tends to be when the new series trades that the trouble occurs and we've been having that happen repeatedly happened here. Happened here, happened here.

Happened here happened here. Is it gonna happen again? Well, I can't tell you, but the math would tell us, well, I should be pretty cautious around Monday the 18th and I can't see you can't peg the day. It's so massive. The market is still massive. You cannot predict the day that something will happen, but you could look at this and say that the supply demand equation, Joel, is that you're exactly right.

It's deteriorating. Exactly right? Yup. So yeah. Let's, let's go look at one thing before you do that, Spencer, because I want to talk about affirm. Let's talk about it. And then look, here's the supply demand balance. In this portfolio, you can see that demand is well above five, but flattening in whatever. The 10 components of this Benzinger October 11 portfolio, our energy is the lead sector.

Fast trading machines. Just want to fool. You are the top behavior short volume. The supply side, the trend is up the last few days are down, so that's not horrible, but there's something in there that's helping us. So let's go look at it really quickly. And so if I look at, you know, who's at the bottom Palentier, you know, Palentier is a one and bottom than 42% short and the short trend is.

Uh, that was the closing price. It trades $5,500 at a time market caps, 44 billion key behavior passing money leaving. And it's in the tech sector. Well, what's the best. Well, look at the ones at the top. It's all alpha AMR stock. I like to trade 10 out of 10 30, 2% short look, diamond back marathon. Devin has all these stocks were up 10 to 11% last week.

You want to go where there's excess demand. Now you'd say what they're all taught. Yeah. And I think when those deteriorate get out, but it could give us another 2, 3, 4 days of gains in energy. Oh Tim, when they get out, I mean, come in, you can buy the 10 because that's the strongest stuff you'd be going into.

But how do you know, like when it's time to ring the register key, right. Entries and exits all trading boils down to entries and exits. So by rising demand. So, you know, I bought, I bought, uh, a book. I bought GM. On Monday when we, you know, I said, well, it looks pretty good. So when sentiment began to deteriorate and short volume jumped above trend, I left, you could still get some additional gains, but I'm happy with my six or 7% gain there.

And I leave. But the, you know, there always it's, it's falling demand by rising demand, sell, falling demand. It's you're, it's just like surfing a wave when the wave begins to deteriorate, your ride is over and it's that simple and it's not perfect. It's not perfect math. It's just better than all the other math.

And that's what we need. So that's it by rising demand, sell, falling demand, be very aware of options, expirations and month ends because all the chairs shift one or two, two to the left or the right. And you have to realize it's going to distort the wave, but that's how you do it. And you repeat that over and over.

You don't have to own 50. I've rarely own more than four or five things at a time, because I'm not smart enough to watch more than that, but that's all you really need to do. Traders. It's fairly simple. All right, Tim, Quoss joins us every Monday from market structure Mondays. He's the founder and CEO of market structure, edge market structure, ed.com.

Tim, always a pleasure. We'll talk to you again next week. Good to see you. My friends have a drink. Hey, it's age 52. Let's unless there was more stuff on our list. Let's do some, uh, ticker time here. Um, if we can, from the chat, there's a few things, very few tickers coming today, but we got the first one Martin's got so far going.

You know what I think? So if I got another upgrade today, I think that

it was, I think it was like two hours ago. I saw that.

Or did I, did I imagine that I thought did I it's possible. I actually have to the ratings today here, uh, for the most part. So, so if I train up 4% here, I had it on for a while. I bought it at $14. It had the nice big move to 18, then it pulled back. And actually, I think I sold it a couple of days ago because it didn't make a new high on that last candle and made me nervous.

So I'm out now out of my self by Morgan Stanley initiated overweight and it twenty-five dollar price target needs to get up. It needs to hold over the candle, the 1709. It's critical for it to do that. Um, it's been holding up very well though. I mean, I kind of, you know, I was kind of on the fence on this one, but I'm, uh, but I did sell my stock a couple of days.

17. Oh nine up to 17. 17. Now was your September 29th high. You're pressing, you got a bit here, but, uh, we'll see what happens at those two levels. If in fact it can clear seventeens had a big run, but, uh, that's where it stopped. Uh, twice since the end of September. We'll see what happens in today's session.

Pre-market highs off of close to that, to that is 1695 and they're swinging volume in is one today. Really good volume. All right. Levi asked him what a highly on that's catching a downgrade. Another downgrade this morning. This one is from UBS downgrade to sell, giving it a $5 price target. So, uh, approaching a new all-time low.

If it's not an all time low. When I say RSA, just rate these ones down with stocks and make a new lows. You got. And you never want to own a stock making new all-time low, just like you never want to be short a stock making a new all-time high because you know what, it's all paying ahead. It's all overhead supply and you have all the people that I finally just had a breaking point.

So, I mean, it's tough. It's been a tough Evie trade for a long time for a lot of. Um, and you're seeing, you know, the repercussions of just too many companies trying to all do similar stuff. And you're seeing a shakeout here of who is going to be the leaders and who are going to be the laggards or the non survivors Helios.

I want nothing to do with this doc 7 54 was a level Dennis was talking about, uh, we have breached that level. So if you want to use that as resistance, you can, it's 21 cents away. I'm sure a lot of people love to see the clothes at 7 82, but a former old time loan, 7 54, ah, here's one, uh, beyond me now allow me to posit a theory here and now I know we spent 25 minutes.

This. Uh, I know we spent 25 minutes this morning talking about supply chain problems and how messed up everything is and how that's bad. Let's try this theory, that supply chain problems is a bullish indicator and here is why it means that there is demand for your product. If you have no supply chain problems.

Now, does that mean that no one is buying your product? I have not heard any complaints, any, uh, any, have you seen any headlines about beyond meat shortages? Not to say that they don't exist. I just haven't seen it, but, um, how, how how's that for spin supply chain equals is bullish because it equals demand.

It's beyond me has been like an unbelievable stock to hold up as well as it has on veggie burgers. I just think eventually there's enough other veggie burger competition that, you know, and obviously, you know, they've done a lot of things, right? The companies, you know, I've tried them. They're pretty good.

I just can't understand it. Wrap my head around the valuation. I can understand and wrap my head. I think the story has cooled off substantially. Is there more pops? Do they get more contracts? Yeah, but every time they get a contract, now it is met with more sellers into those pops. So I think eventually the stock is going to go a lot lower, but I was said that a year ago when the stock was right around the same price, probably like $110.

And it went down to like 50. Why not? No, actually, I don't know because we were perished before, even before COVID started. And then it came all the way back and it got to $221 again, which is unbelievable. The February, that January of 2021 that bailed out every bag holder and every stock. If you didn't get out during that time, you missed you're out.

Now you look at, and you think, is this ever going back to 2 25? I never can say never, but I don't think. I bet you, if you go and you look on that day, when it did go, uh, trade over 2 25, almost guarantee that there was a headline about, uh, a burger deal with yeah. That's what was driving some burger deal.

Now they're all they got to deal with. McDonald's they got a deal over here. And eventually, I don't know, uh, their support. I mean, I'm sure this person is looking at it, you know, like for, from a buy perspective or retail trade, you know, most. Do and it's most of the, market's been an uptrend. You're leaning on the low of the move at 98 90.

You've had a couple of lows around a hundred, it's holding up. So it's a low, lower risk long, but you take out this 98 90, this hundred dollar level. Your next monthly low comes in at 88 51. And just on the upside, I mean, there's nothing exactly at 1 0 5. Uh, you had a high just under 1 0 5 yesterday on Friday.

So these, you get above 1 0 5 to have a sustained move to the upside. Just kind of quiet, just laugh. It's just like nothing. They're kind of like the burgers. And then just to follow up from, uh, from Friday as someone just mentioned Dutch brothers, the analyst's quiet period is now over on B R O S. So if you're looking at this morning, you're seeing like a half dozen ratings on, on Dutch bros.

Um, all positive, no real surprise there. Um, but here I'll, I'll just read you off a few of them this morning. You got JP Morgan, uh, overweight price target of 47 Barclays, uh, neutral price target 40 Piper Sandler, overweight price, target 60 Baird outperform price target 56 B Evey by price target 55 Cowin outperform price target 50.

So that's a range of 40 to 40 to 60. For a Dutch brothers

coffee shop. I am, I'm limiting my comments on this. I limited in my comments on Friday 41 and a half, we got about 45. Maybe it starts to get interesting again, but it had its run. You got some overhead supply had 50%. I mean, for me, get back over 47, hold 47, maybe, but analyze the people. A lot of people stuck in this one.

So recent, low the move. Uh, well actually you had a low last week at 41 32. So cut. It kind of feels like a Robin hood chart, you know, with, uh, you know, you had the write up after the IPO. You're just black, just like nothing, just holding, holding a level, but not really going anywhere. All right. All right. It is nine o'clock.

Joel's going to head over to pre-market. Dot com, which is coincidentally, this is just sheer coincidence. That that's the same place where you'll be able to find, um, the Saturday extravaganza this Saturday nine to 1230. So Joel, have a good rest of your day, Dennis. Again, happy Thanksgiving, have a good rest of your day.

And thanks for joining us on a, on a, on a, on a federal holiday for Canadians. And it is time for our weekly IPO segment. Now I'm going to bring on Manhattan. If my IPO warriors, what we're going to do, we're going to do what we do every week, right? Is we're just going to preview the week at IPO. And, but.

This will be the last time that Matt is on right now, starting next week. We're going to move Matt's time from 9:00 AM Eastern to around 12:00 PM around noon Eastern Matt. Good morning. Good morning, Spencer high noon. Doing great. Doing great. I figure, you know what? Noon, middle of the day, everyone is not so frazzled and stressed, trying to prepare for the open, have a little bit more time to talk about these things.

So we'll run through the IPO is from last week and this week. Um, and then, and then that's what we'll do. So let's bring it up here. Your, your, your slides here, which there they are first. I guess what we'll start with. What we always do is we'll recap last week. How was the week? Um, you know, the week started out pretty well.

And then by Friday I was kind of probably itching too much to, uh, to get into some IPO plays and broke some of my rules and paid the price for it. So it's all right. I, uh, it wasn't too aggressive. So, uh, back holding a couple pharma stocks that I specifically said not to play last, uh, Monday, um, maybe I need to go back and check my newsletter and rewatch the shelf before each trade, because I often say things that and give great advice.

And the times when I take losses are almost always when I go against my own rules. Um, so discipline is an important thing and I can continue to remind myself and to remind others that there are certain setups that are to be avoided and certain setups that are high conviction, where you should go big and.

That's just part of the game, part of the learning. And, uh, like the last guest said the entry and the exit. Those are the two key pieces of each trade. And sometimes not making an entry is the, you know, it's the wise move, but there were plenty of opportunities to take some big wins, uh, last week. And also just want to touch back on the rescheduling.

Yeah, noon sounds great. We'll have more time to go into things. Won't be trying to rush through things last week, we did start to get into something kind of interesting. And then we had internet problems. I do, I do break down these, uh, both the recap of each week. I sent out a newsletter over the weekend and you can sign up for the newsletter@ipowarriors.com.

And then on usually Monday evening or Tuesday, I will send out a more in depth preview of the IPO is for the week ahead in the newsletter as well. So the newsletter is free. Sign up@ipowarriors.com. Follow me on Twitter. I often will break, especially when there is kind of a stealth IPO or something that sneaks up on us.

Those are often the most exciting plays. And I'll tweet those out on some news, special newsletters on those, and you can follow me there. So if you're enjoying this content, if I've helped you make a lot of money, I think I have helped a lot of people with that. And, you know, I get, I get a lot of positive feedback, so I want to keep doing that.

But if you want to get more gold IPO warriors, sign up for the newsletter and you'll get updates there and also update you on, we do shift the schedule change, and it's just a great way to stay in touch with what's going on in the IPO's. So this week we had, or this last week we had Vulcan, we had lifetime group, we had thesis therapeutics and we had cognition therapeutics.

So all of these were very low flow except for lifetime group. And that wasn't really a great play. So these low float IPOs, we continue to talk about these Volcom. Uh, it was low float and it had sort of that buzz that we look for that. And it's in one of those niches where people get excited about, just about anything that's Evie related.

So Vulcan is doing Evy off-road vehicles. So these are like non street, legal motorcycles and ATVs that are electric. And then that's the play. And the float was thanks. 3 million. Yeah. Free million share float. So people will gravitate towards this. It was a little bit tricky. It debuted at $9 after IPO at $5.

So that was, I kind like to see that sort of debut premium. It indicates that people are interested in this. It doesn't take a whole lot of demand to send an IPO that only has 3 million shares in the float into a massive run. Uh, but this one pulled a little bit of a headache. And it was sort of just due to stupid luck that as I increased my limit order before the debut a rate, before it went live each trade, which is sometimes does rejected my price change.

Sometimes you have your price set at say $8, and then you see the indication price go up to $9. So you try to adjust your limit order because you know, I'm trying to find these on the debut. And sometimes he trade we'll just go Nope, rejected. And now they've canceled your order. And as you scrambled to put in your next order, you know, in this case it went live and it kind of unexpectedly went straight down into a halt.

Um, it doesn't take a whole lot of volume in either direction to move 10% either way and trigger a halt. So this one holds the down and that's a little bit unexpected. We expect these. Kind of run off the open to do so, you know, really in the first couple of seconds, when they go live, they'll often halt straight up.

So this one, I read the level two data and I saw a big, uh, sell order down at seven 50. So I decided, okay, well I will play. If, if it goes up, I'm not going to chase it. That's my second rule of trading. These, my first is take profits without regret. The second is don't chase. So if this just ripped up, I would say, well, I missed it.

You know, damn you E-Trade. Um, but if it drops down, I will, you know, I will, I'll take that opportunity. I'll take that opportunity. So I said, all right, I'll place a limit order at 7 55. And if a debut or an opens out of the halt and drops, then I'll get in because I think it'll come back up. I think there's still, I saw a lot of chatter on this and social media.

I could see the buy orders had some significant volume in them, especially before the day view. And so I jumped in at 7 55 and was rewarded by, you know, a couple halts up. I got out at 10 50. I wasn't particularly, you know, I was a little bit spooked by that initial move down. But if you did follow the kind of rule of three, which I, for me is, you know, at three halts, if I see three upward halts on these, I want to be totally out.

And if you did that, you got out around 1250, if you were even greedier, um, you know, maybe you said, oh, I think this is going to run to 15 or 14 and maybe so half your position here, play half of it up here. But the bigger takeaway on this is, Hey, when it's low float and it's not, you know, biotech, if it's something like crypto or Evy or, uh, we had debts the other week we had, if it's a Chinese random, just about anything, uh, underwritten by both stat or network one solutions like you play those.

So any of these super low floats that have some kind of Nimesh and you know, or any one of these kinds of hot trends, Uh, niches. There's a very good chance that the social media trading groups will pick it up. They all jump in. It's very easy to send these up through a couple halts and they're great opportunities to take, you know, 5100% wins.

I think the one that we had before that was a big one, was M H L T H a couple of weeks ago, we made a big play on, and that was again, low float. It was COVID testing devices. And when we see these, we recognize the opportunity. We have a high conviction, we play them. I mean, if you picked off a big entry at seven 50, you had a chance for a hundred percent gain in about an hour's worth of trading.

So these are the ones I'm looking for, especially, even in a cold market. Lifetime group holdings was, uh, I mean, there was a win opportunity here. I didn't like it because it had a very high float, 47 million shares. It did get a Kramer pump in the morning, which can help these a little bit. Uh, then again to what he just said, you liked it, is that all what he said was, and this is something we mentioned on the show last Monday as well, was that, you know, this is a gym like high-end gym memberships, gyms, you know, a lot of gyms got shut down during the pandemic, especially smaller, you know, single location venues and lifetime group was able to weather the storm.

And when people return to the gyms, they're not going to have so many options as they had before. And this, you know, this is kind of like the last man standing or one of, and the idea is, well now, now that there's not so many options and people do want to go to the gym, they want to get back in shape. Uh, you know, that this would benefit from this, but the thing that makes.

Sort of interesting as a play, although I just basically decided to take the day off last Wednesday, the, that it opened below the IPO price. So when you see something that has a little bit of interest in it already, and it opens below the IPO price, there's a very, we see a lot of times it'll fill back into the IPO price or at least, you know, close some of that gap.

Uh, when the IPO traders are all, even if there's 47 million shares out there, if they're all in at 18, I don't see, you know, surprises me when I see something go down from, you know, below IPO price. But in this case from 1667, where it opened this less of a chance that the people who just paid $18 for it are going to sell it right away, then those people are kinda like, well, you know, let's hold this.

And just, maybe the market's just cold right now, which it was. And you know, there were opportunities to play this for a profit. You're not gonna make a ton of money. But, you know, you add up the singles, you get, you know, your score, it runs, I mean, you can win, get wins there, but for me, this just wasn't, it still wasn't interesting enough to, um, to sit there and play it.

Uh, T H R X, this one I didn't play simply because as a general rule, I don't play biotechs and this one did give you a win opportunity, but you really want to assess your, you know, what is the upside downside risk of something like this. And do you really think that from, you know, if it coats up 20%, do you think it's going to run up another significant leg from there?

Uh, I would say that if you were old enough to play this at all, you would have been wise to, you know, keep a trailing stop loss on, uh, you know, off the debut, but it run up a little bit, get your stop-loss and raise it as it rises and take a quick profit. If you got greedy on this one, you know, you ended up getting.

Uh, the other one that I liked this week, simply because it was super low float and Alzheimer's Alzheimer's for some reason has been getting a lot of positive attention. The FDA, I forget the ticker, but approved an Alzheimer's drug earlier a few months ago that some doctors said it wasn't ready. Anyway, the stock ran and since then almost everything that was hanging out.

We'll see. Uh, well there's a couple, uh, cassava has the one with, uh, with the data that may or not may or may not, uh, be good, but oh man, I'm blanking on the, uh, it was a L H E or some Alch or something. Oh gosh. Shat. I know the chat knows anyway, keep going. But I stay with that. What that biotech is. Yeah.

The point is I think it is a LCH. Um, the point is that Alzheimer's plus low float has been kind of. Hot trades. This one had think 3 million. Yeah. 3.3, 5 million. I think they upped it to 3.7 million. So Biogen, Biogen, Biogen, I think there was also, okay. So bio, so the point being Alzheimer's plus a low float, that's sorta trendy that sort of, you know, it's super low float.

This was a good opportunity. I missed it because I tried to undercut it. So everything, you know, dipping a little bit off the debut. So I said, okay, well, I'll go to try to snipe a little 1185 entry. Didn't get it. And it ran, uh, you know, it looks better than it was. I mean, ultimately this is a dollar 50 win, so it didn't even make the two point no, when that I usually targeting, but it was a pretty safe play.

I mean, if you got in and kept trailing stop loss, maybe you got stopped out on this big downward with here, but you still took. Uh, 50 sand or a dollar when here, maybe let it ride a little bit, maybe sit 1350. There was no point in this where we realistically would've gotten hurt. So it was a good play if you took it.

And it's just another good example of low flow plus something buzz-worthy and these are the kinds of plays that especially in a cold market, these are still, you know, still opportunities to take wins in the IPO world. So one of the takeaways for the last couple of weeks is one of the market is called.

Don't be too bold. Like, you know, don't just, there are times when the market's hot, where it seems like every IPO goes up and it's almost like, well, just, you know, put your boat in the ocean. And it's going to rise with the tide. When the market is soft and remits to the correction, it's really a time to be extra cautious.

And one of the other signs of this is when you start seeing multiple IPOs kind of like brand name, IPO's getting polled. We saw last week, we saw, uh, A couple of others the week before it got polled. And we've just seen a lot of brand name IPO's that normally wouldn't go live, get pulled or delayed. And the reason is they say adverse market conditions.

But with a really means is they went out to a bunch of investors and the big name, money players and said, Hey, do you want to buy our stock? And they said, well, we're not really like buying a lot of stuff right now. And we're not super excited what you're offering. So, you know, we'll take a pass and enough of them say that they're going to say, well, now it's not the right time for us to do an IPO.

Um, so when you see a lot of IPO's getting pulled or pricing below range downsizing, their offering, you know, or even debuting below the IPO price, which is something we really didn't see a lot of like earlier in the year or last year when the IPO market was super hot, the time to be cautious. And during this time I'm going to focus my efforts on low float height, memes, or longer price, you know, longer positions in under priced IPS.

So we saw back in, I think it was August, we saw a bunch of IPO's. It didn't do particularly well on the debut. Uh, but then once the market warmed up again, it was like, you got a huge discount on them and they just ran, you know, really hot, you know, they did really nice runs from there. And those are some of the opportunities that might be looking for in there's one in specifically this week, that I'm what I think kind of fits that category.

Like laid on us, we'll get there. But, uh, some of these would blow through because we've like, HCTI, I think we've covered this every week for the last three weeks, found data management software for healthcare life survey. So the revenue, you know, nothing to particularly exciting gross profits, not particularly exciting.

Uh, they got a trifecta of negative on the operating loss, net income and cashflow. And the only thing exciting is that, or interesting is that they reduced the float from 9 million shares to 4.6, 2 million. So now this has gone from, well, you know, not particularly big, but not low enough to run on its own to under 5 million shares.

Now I have to watch it and see are people talking about this on Twitter? Are people talking about this on Pinterest? Are people like talking about this in social media? Because it doesn't take a lot for a 4.6, 2 million share float to run, but then again, it's still selling on weeble after three weeks and cutting the share float in half.

So if people get allocations of, you know, 50% of what they've requested, or even, you know, 30% or more of what they requested, it's probably not all that interesting. And in this market, I think we got to take a pass on this one. Uh Biofrontera this is some kind of skincare for overexposure to the sun, which I can't quite tell if it's sunburns or skin cancer, but their financials are not interesting at all.

They are slightly rebounding now that we're coming out of the hands. And the only thing interesting here is 3 million shares float. Unfortunately, 3 million shares and super low floats have not necessarily done well for companies that aren't in some kind of interesting market. And I don't think skincare for the sun, uh, sounds like sunscreen, or I don't know.

It just doesn't sound particularly exciting unless I see a lot of people getting exciting about it, excited about it. I'm just not going to try to touch this one habit exchange accounts payable software. So software as a service for accounts payable revenues up 33% in six months ending June 30th, gross profits up 52%.

So they're pretty like pretty positive growth numbers, but in recent, the recent trend has been, we need growth number either really, really strong growth numbers, or we need growth numbers with operating profit net income and cashflow or moving very close to. Without that we've seen investors kind of shrug them off.

We've seen the market being, not that interested. I've never heard of the back avid exchange. So it's not in something that is particularly exciting to me. And with negatives across kind of the three, you know, that, that trifecta, that financial baseline trifecta, um, even with the kind of moderate float of 22 million shares, I'm just not convinced.

I don't have any conviction that this is going to run. And there are other players that will demand my attention this week, if I'm going to play anything. Okay, lucid. Sorry. It's not the EAP company. It's just a diagnostics company. It's a device for testing esophageal cancer indicators, softened geo, maybe cancer, eight indicators.

It's not generating any revenue yet because their devices not FDA approved yet. The underwriter is not a company that I'm particularly. Familiar with, so we're not seeing like boasted or network one financial or even Maxim or think equity. So none of these kinds of like gimmicky underwriters that sometimes indicate that they might do something kind of manipulative with the price.

The float is very low with 5 million shares. But again, unless people mistake this for lucid motors, which I doubt they will. Um, this is a pass for me, IHS. This is IHS group. This is kind of interesting. It's a, they buy and manage communication towers. So cell phone towers, particularly in emerging markets, they just bought a big contract in Brazil, or they bought like a thousand towers in Brazil.

They just bought a thousand towers in Kuwait. Um, and as we know, you know, everybody uses a cell phones, so it's pretty good industry to be in. Uh, revenue only up 15% in the six past six months, but gross profits are up 60% in the last six months on gross margins of 47%. It's a pretty healthy growth metric for a company that is in that how's that positive trifecta across the financial baselines.

They have positive operating profit, positive net income and cashflow. Uh, so this is kind of the, you know, I mean, cell phone towers are the thing behind the thing that is mobile phones until we get significant service coming through it from satellites towers of the way that the world connects to each other through their mobile devices.

So one red flag is that of the kind of conservative float of 22.5 million shares 4.5 million shares are being sold by existing shareholders. I always sort of wonder why the shareholders are selling now. If they believe that the company and the IPO will be very. And it definitely means that there will be more liquidity than, you know, because a float of 22.5 million shares, that's what they're floating to.

You know, the IPO sales, they're selling that to the institutional buyers, to the hedge funds and the big money who they are hoping is, are going to hold most of those shares. And not, it's not 22.5 million shares are always going to be traded on that first day. But when we see 4.5 million shares being sold by existing shareholders, those shares to me tend to make it to the market on the first day.

So I like this. I like everything about this, except that one and that one piece there. So I have to watch that. I do like this though. This is profitable growing and cashflow positive. So this has this checks, the boxes takes the kids to the check boxes. So I like this one. I have a star next to it and I'll be watching it.

Get loud. This is, this is one of those tech companies. So this week is good. Oh, this is exciting. I'm excited for this. Um, and, and I think it's, you know, with, uh, with merit, this one is fits that model of, well, if it's going to debut in a cold market and we might get, actually get a good price for a longer hold for this, uh, for those of you who aren't familiar with this, this is kind of the main competitor to get hub.

So get is a version control kind of software repository used in, you know, for developing software. Uh, this is something I know a little bit more about than some of the other things, because I am a software developer in my, uh, in my day job and get is basically. A service that, you know, most development companies are going to use.

When you have multiple developers working on a software platform, you have to keep track of, who's taking a piece of the software out, working on it, test it, you know, and then manage those kind of reimplementation of the work that they've done into that base code. And the main, you know, software use for that is get, and then the two big platforms for our get hub, which is, uh, was bought out by Microsoft and then get lab.

So get lab has some advantages over get hub and that it's more customizable. So for larger companies and larger projects, that can be very helpful. Maybe I don't want to use the workflow that get hub kind of prescribes to you. And a lot of people have been moving towards get lab revenue is up 69% in the last six months, gross profits of 67% in the last six years.

So, this is the kind of thing where the market often says, oh, in gross margins of 87%, you can see how this can scale with, you know, with growth and the only downside, but you kind of expect it in a company like this. Who's trying to grab market share, you know, the losses across cashflow, operating profits, and a little bit of that cashflow and profits.

And, um, shit, I duplicated that. I don't mean that, I mean a net income, that should be the last one. So those losses are kind of digestible when you have revenue of this magnitude in a company that is kind of, uh, you know, very hot and the growth in this, you know, in this industry is obvious for the next, as long as we're using software and developing software, I would also like about this as the only floating 10.4 million shares.

So this is one of those. IPOs that is likely to get priced above range. I think that they're saying 48 to 50 is the price range. They would probably increase that by the time this goes live on Thursday, and then they'll probably price the IPO above that. And then it will debut like 70 or 80. And, you know, I still like it.

It's the kind of play where even if it does a day, one dip, you have a very good chance of a day to recovery. And I think an even better chance that with just 10.4 million shares, you see, you see this move up from the debut. So this is if it doesn't, this is one point I mentioned earlier that the debuts that came in the colder market back in, um, August, a lot of them ran up when things warmed up, not in August and may, may, June.

A lot of things warmed up when the market kind of came back to life a little bit there before the September. So if you're wrapping it up against the clock here, Matt, any more? A couple, but let's go quick, quick. Okay. This one, I don't really like it. It's um, you know, unimpressive financials think equity is the underwriter, which is kind of hit and miss super low float though.

So who knows keeping an eye on it? Singulate uh, in, from last week, got rescheduled improved drug delivery for ADH treatment, ADHD treatments, um, very low float. I don't really want to touch on other biotech at this point. Augmedix this is patient care documentation. It's like speech to text documentation for doctors.

It's kind of interesting. Cause it could get docs comparison. It is an uplifting, which I don't usually like the numbers. They have good growth losses across, you know, the trifecta in a pretty low float. Maybe keep an eye on it, but not, not, not super exciting. My focus this week would be on IHS and G T T L lb and still watching, uh, this one with.

Still watching pets something's going on there posted is involved. Just, you know, check me tweets. If you're interested in that one, we got cut off and we talked to you last week, but if we gotta go, we gotta go. Markets come opens in three minutes for the newsletter. I'll have more on that there. IPL worries.com.

And that's a wrap for me, Spencer. All right, Matt Hammond. Thanks a lot. Joins us every Monday to give us a preview, a recap, and a preview of what's to come in the IPO calendar. That's a wrap for us here today. David David Green is live now on our channel, the stream, and a redirect to him. Please remember all the information from our show is meant to be used as informational purposes, not for investing or trading advice.

I promise. I promise I'll have a camera back later today. I'm getting, uh, my laptop, uh, from the office, which has. More functionality than my crappy MacBook air. So there's that? Uh, thanks everyone for bearing with me. Thanks to Tim. Thanks to Matt. Thanks to all of you in the chat. Hit that like button, please.

And thank you. And I'll catch you guys later. Have a good, good day and good luck at the open.

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#93 - Gaan je ogen niet juist achteruit van het dragen van een bril? (S05)