Multipolarity Multipolarity Advent Calendar: Day Ten
Dec 20, 2025
In this festive episode, Philip and Andrew explore key geopolitical themes of the year. They delve into the mystery of Trump's poor economic polling despite GDP growth. The discussion shifts to the failure of tariffs and foreign direct investment strategies. They analyze the unregulated world of international trade law. AI emerges as a major driver of US growth, yet concerns about speculative investments and rising costs in data centers loom large. The potential fleeting nature of the AI boom is also revealed, suggesting risks for economic stability.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
AI Bubble Needs Constant Acceleration
- The AI boom functions like a bubble that requires constant acceleration of growth to justify sky-high valuations.
- When earnings growth stops accelerating, valuations must fall and the bubble risks a sharp correction.
FDI Pledges Lack Real Enforcement
- Trump's strategy to combine tariffs with promised FDI inflows has largely failed because MOUs lack enforceability.
- Without credible enforcement or real reshoring, promised investment pledges often remain symbolic.
Data Centers Raise Depreciation Risks
- Big tech firms' huge data-center builds raise depreciation expenses, weighing on future profits if capacity stays underused.
- Those fixed assets are speculative bets on a future AI economy that may not materialize at scale.