Rich Hribar from Sharp Football Analysis joins to dissect the players fantasy enthusiasts should steer clear of this draft season. They delve into Dak Prescott's impressive 2023 season yet signal caution regarding his mobility and regression risks. Discussions on Cortland Sutton suggest investing in rookie wide receivers might yield better returns. The duo also warns against drafting Sam LaPorta too early and highlights key strategies for evaluating player values amidst shifting team dynamics.
Dak Prescott is a player to avoid due to potential negative regression risks and concerns about his offensive line support.
Zamir White's lack of pass-catching ability and uncertain role in a struggling Raiders offense render him a classic dead zone running back.
Cortland Sutton's inconsistent production and high touchdown reliance suggest he may not justify his draft position compared to emerging rookies.
Deep dives
Dak Prescott's Regression Risks
Dak Prescott is considered a player to avoid due to significant negative regression risks following an unusually high-performing season. He led the league in several key metrics, including completions and touchdown passes, but these numbers were boosted by extraordinary factors, such as having a strong offensive supporting cast. Historical data indicates that teams with similar previous success often see a decline in scoring and touchdown production the following year. Additionally, Prescott's current situation in Dallas is less favorable, with concerns about his offensive line and the potential impact on his performance if key players were to miss time.
Zamir White's Limited Upside
Zamir White is viewed as a classic dead zone running back, primarily due to his lack of pass-catching ability and the uncertainty surrounding his role in the Raiders' offense. Despite solid performances at the end of last season, his pass-catching skills have been minimal, making it challenging to trust his long-term value. With the competition for touches in the backfield and a projected struggling offense, the potential for White to exceed expectations appears slim. Instead of investing in White, targeting more ambiguous backfields with higher upside seems to be a better strategy for fantasy players.
Cortland Sutton's Ceiling Concerns
Cortland Sutton has struggled to establish himself as a top fantasy wide receiver, with metrics indicating a lack of target share and overall production. Despite being the primary wide receiver on his team, he has failed to reach the top 24 in PPR points throughout his career. Previous seasons suggest that Sutton's touchdown production may not sustain, especially considering he scored a high number of touchdowns relative to his limited yards per game. Given the availability of emerging rookie wideouts and higher-upside picks, Sutton may not be a valuable investment at his draft position.
David Montgomery's Limited Value
David Montgomery is projected as a low-end RB2, with concerns about his value given the presence of Jameer Gibbs in the Lions' backfield. His role is likely to mirror that of Jamal Williams, focusing primarily on goal-line carries while lacking significant receiving upside. Historical trends suggest that running backs with prominent counterparts struggle to exceed their draft expectations, and Montgomery's catch rate indicates he could face difficulties in a low-volume passing offense. Consequently, choosing to draft Montgomery may yield better value around other running backs available later in the draft.
Sam LaPorta's Overvalued Draft Position
Sam LaPorta is touted as a promising player, yet his current draft position may not reflect his actual value due to potential regression in production. Although he was the top-scoring tight end last season, his overall points per game did not keep pace with other top options, indicating a lack of positional leverage. With his efficiency likely to decline and competing targets expected in the Lions' offense, investing early in LaPorta may not yield the expected returns. Opting for other tight ends with similar upside at a lower cost might be a more strategic approach for fantasy teams.
JJ sits down with Sharp Football Analysis' Rich Hribar to talk about players they're generally avoiding in fantasy football drafts this year. Sign up and deposit on Underdog now and use promo code LATEROUND for a free Late-Round Draft Guide and deposit offer: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-late-round-ff Purchase the Late-Round Prospect Guide or the Late-Round Draft Guide: http://www.lateround.com/
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