President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 12 December 2024
Dec 11, 2024
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Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank and a former Managing Director of the IMF, discusses crucial monetary policy decisions aimed at achieving a 2% inflation target. She dives into the current economic performance, inflation expectations, and potential risks like geopolitical tensions. Lagarde also highlights a notable 1.3% annual increase in bank lending, emphasizing the importance of financial stability and the Governing Council’s strategies for navigating global trade dynamics.
The ECB has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to stabilize inflation at a medium-term target of 2%.
Economic growth is projected to slow down, influenced by weak demand and geopolitical tensions affecting investment and exports.
Deep dives
Interest Rate Adjustments for Stabilizing Inflation
The Governing Council has decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points, with the deposit facility rate being a focal point for steering monetary policy. This decision is based on an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council aims to ensure that inflation stabilizes sustainably at a 2% medium-term target. Their approach remains data-dependent and flexible, allowing for adjustments in response to new economic and financial data.
Economic Growth and Recovery Trends
Economic growth is expected to be slower than previously projected, with estimates showing a rise of 0.7% in 2024 and gradually increasing thereafter. Recent indicators suggest that while the economy grew by 0.4% in the third quarter, momentum is waning due to weak demand and reduced investment spending from firms. Households are projected to consume more as real incomes rise and credit becomes more affordable, which should support domestic demand over time. However, global trade tensions and geopolitical risks could hinder this recovery and affect exports.
Inflation Dynamics and Risks Ahead
Current inflation trends show a slight increase, reflecting energy price base effects, yet the overall trajectory aligns with a return to the ECB's target. Wage growth is moderating, and higher productivity is expected to reduce labor costs in the long run, aiding the stabilization of prices. Despite the anticipated return to target inflation, risks remain, including higher wages and unexpected geopolitical tensions that could escalate inflationary pressures. Conversely, low consumer confidence and global economic challenges could dampen demand and lead to lower than expected inflation.
1.
Monetary Policy Decisions and Economic Projections
Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to return inflation to our 2% goal in a timely manner.
Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers:
• how the economy is performing
• how we expect prices to develop
• the risks to the economic outlook
• the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions
Published and recorded during our press conference on 12 December 2024
Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 12 December 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2024/html/mopo_statement_explained_december.en.html
Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 12 December 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2024/html/ecb.is241212~ce143b3bc8.en.html
Monetary policy decisions, 12 December 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp241212~2acab6e51e.en.html
Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 12 December 2024
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds241212~154574b25f.en.pdf
Macroeconomic projections, 12 December 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202412_eurosystemstaff~71a06224a5.en.html
European Central Bank
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
You can also listen on all major podcast platforms.
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