Bitcoin Park Open House: Bitcoin Mining - What to Expect in 2023
Jan 21, 2023
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Harry Sudock, Cassie Clifton, and Jonathan Kirkwood discuss the challenges and expectations for the future of Bitcoin mining, including the struggles faced by the industry in 2022, the dominance of large mining firms, the potential of mining in pro regulatory locales, concerns about the next mining cycle, and the potential of home mining to reduce heating costs.
2023 will be a year of survival for miners, with opportunities to capitalize on lower costs per terra hash when buying Bitcoin.
Diversifying revenue streams and understanding the power market will be crucial for long-term sustainability in Bitcoin mining.
Deep dives
Key Point 1: Challenges Faced by Miners in 2022
In 2022, the mining industry faced significant challenges. The global hash rate exploded with China shutting down its mining operations. The hash rate quickly shifted to the US, resulting in intense competition for mining rewards. Additionally, manufacturers delivered machines at higher efficiencies and massive scale, but financing structures for purchasing these machines failed, leading to compressed margins and financial difficulties for miners.
Key Point 2: Struggles of Core Scientific and Factors Affecting Their Bankruptcy
Core Scientific, initially a hosting provider, pivoted to mining using cheap liquidity available in the market. However, they faced significant struggles, including massive debt, compressed margins, and high power costs due to variable-rate power and rising natural gas prices. Core Scientific's assumption of increasing Bitcoin prices and hash rate, coupled with significant financing at the peak of the market, left them underwater and unable to sustain their operations.
Key Point 3: Future of Mining and Opportunities for Miners
Looking ahead, 2023 is expected to be a year of survival for miners. With lower costs per terra hash, there are opportunities for miners to capitalize when buying Bitcoin. However, diversifying revenue streams and understanding the power market will be crucial for long-term sustainability. The structure of ASIC-backed loans is likely to change, with a focus on de-risking, cash flow sweeps, and minimum-maximum payback periods. Large-scale mining firms with structural cost advantages and differentiated access to power are more likely to thrive. As the market evolves, home mining is seen as bearish in terms of unit economics but can provide benefits through capturing heat for other uses.
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This conversation was recorded at Bitcoin Park’s January 2023 Open House, a monthly meetup event at Bitcoin Park in Nashville, TN featuring panel discussions on various Bitcoin-focused topics.
January 2023’s Open House topic: Mining to the Moon
moderated by Matt Odell, Co-founder at Bitcoin Park
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