Exploring the often-overlooked realm of Day 3 NFL draft selections, the discussion highlights the challenging success rates of these sleepers. With a focus on running backs and wide receivers, caution is urged when eyeing late-round picks for your fantasy team. Are those last-minute draft choices truly diamonds in the rough, or simply risky ventures? Tune in to uncover intriguing stats and insights that could impact your fantasy strategies!
Day 3 NFL draft selections generally have a significantly lower chance of achieving fantasy success compared to earlier picks.
Notable exceptions among Day 3 players exist, but they are rare, emphasizing the need for caution in drafting strategies.
Deep dives
Understanding Draft Day Value
NFL draft selections are categorized into day one, day two, and day three, each holding different values in terms of player potential. Day one picks, generally first-round selections, often have higher draft capital and better chances of success compared to day two and day three picks. Although players selected on day two may vary greatly in value, day three selections typically present a lower success rate for fantasy football production. Teams often take more risks with day three picks, as the stakes are lower and they are less pressured to hit on those selections.
Success Rates of Day Three Running Backs
Analysis of running backs drafted after pick 100 shows that achieving significant fantasy success from day three players is rare; only 9.2% of these players have reached 14 or more PPR points per game in their early seasons. Comparatively, day one running backs achieve this at a 69% rate, indicating a monumental difference in reliability. Rookie drafts reveal a lack of correlation between a day three running back’s selection position and their subsequent fantasy performance, further complicating drafting strategies. Players like James Connor and Elijah Mitchell, who are day three success stories, highlight the difficulty in projecting which running backs will excel.
Challenges with Day Three Wide Receivers
Wide receivers drafted on day three face even steeper odds, with just 4.2% hitting 12 or more PPR points per game in their first seasons, a stark contrast to day one wide receivers at a 55% success rate. Like running backs, the ADP of day three wide receivers shows no correlation with their fantasy performance, making it challenging for drafters to identify potential breakout players. Notable exceptions, such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, show that while some day three picks can succeed, they are typically the exception rather than the rule. Overall, while there is value in considering day three players, caution should be exercised against reaching for them in rookie drafts.
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Understanding Day Three NFL Draft Selections and Their Fantasy Impact
It's easy to get excited about your favorite NFL Draft sleeper, but if he's not backed by much draft capital, should you be concerned? On Episode 980, JJ looks into this, as he dives into some interesting numbers about Day 3 draft picks.
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