Campaign catch-up: Why this UK election result could be the most distorted ever
Jun 25, 2024
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FT's John Burn-Murdoch joins Lucy Fisher to discuss the Tory campaign woes. They delve into the 2019 Tory collapse roots, potential election results mismatch, and why 'first past the post' system may lead to the biggest distortion in UK history.
The Tory party's crisis management failures and Bettingate scandal have jeopardized their chances in the upcoming UK election.
The potential for a significant mismatch between parties' vote shares and Westminster seats calls into question the fairness of the UK electoral system.
Deep dives
Discussion on Potential UK Election Results
The podcast delves into the upcoming UK election and the potential for distorted results. With Labour holding a 20-point lead, there are predictions that the Tories may face historic defeat on July 4th. Additionally, issues like Bettingate and Conservative Party's missteps have raised concerns about crisis management during campaigning.
Origins of Tory Collapse
The podcast explores the timeline of the Conservative Party's decline, highlighting events such as Dominic Cummings' tenure and controversial decisions on Brexit and policy execution. Data analysis suggests a significant drop in seat numbers even before Rishi Sunak's leadership. The discussion points out a sustained decline under Boris Johnson's leadership.
Impact of Failed Deliveries on Tories
The episode discusses how the Conservative Party's failure to deliver on promises and handle crises has affected its public image and electoral prospects. The lack of trust in the Tories' ability to govern effectively, coupled with perceived rule-breaking and incompetence, has led to voter dissatisfaction. The episode emphasizes the importance of delivering on promises to maintain public support.
Debate on Distorted Election Results
In analyzing the potential distortion in UK election results, the podcast raises concerns over the discrepancy between votes and parliamentary seats. Proportional representation issues are highlighted, indicating potential anomalies where parties like Reform could secure significant votes but minimal seats, impacting the political landscape. The discussion underscores the challenges of electoral systems in producing fair representation.
The Conservatives’ embattled campaign suffered yet another setback this week, as the betting scandal escalated and the party finally suspended two candidates ensnared by the row. But when did it first start to go wrong for the Tories? Lucy Fisher is joined by the FT’s chief data reporter John Burn-Murdoch, who charts the beginning of the party’s descent back to 2019. The pair are joined by Political Fix regulars Robert Shrimsley and George Parker to discuss whether Britain’s “first past the post system” will lead to the biggest ever mismatch between parties’ share of the vote and their share of Westminster seats.
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Presented by Lucy Fisher.
Produced by Persis Love and Audrey Tinline.
Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Original music and audio mix by Breen Turner.