Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, and Rajan Menon, director of the Grand Strategy Program at Defense Priorities, engage in a riveting debate on negotiating peace in Ukraine. They discuss the military and strategic dilemmas facing Ukraine, weighing continued military support against the need for negotiations. The conversation critiques the Biden administration's strategies and explores Ukraine's potential security landscape post-war. This clash of expert perspectives sheds light on the intricate geopolitical dynamics at play.
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insights INSIGHT
Escalation of War
Ukraine's failure to retake territory has led to increased Western involvement.
This raises the question of whether a peace settlement is better than continued escalation.
insights INSIGHT
Negotiated Settlement Inevitable
Neither Russia nor Ukraine will achieve their stated war goals through military force alone.
Pressuring Ukraine to negotiate now would likely result in a settlement favoring Putin.
insights INSIGHT
Ukraine's Weakening Position
Ukraine's negotiating position has weakened over time, with missed opportunities for a better deal.
It's unclear if Ukraine can regain a stronger position given current constraints.
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In this book, Emma Ashford explores the many potential links between domestic oil production and foreign policy behavior, challenging prevailing understandings of the international implications of oil wealth. She categorizes petrostates into three types: oil-dependent states, oil-wealthy states, and super-producer states, and illustrates how oil shapes their behavior through case studies and analysis. The book sheds light on the agency and power of petrostates and their influence on global politics, especially as the oil market undergoes rapid changes.
Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order
Rajan Menon
Eugene Rumer
This book provides a historical perspective on the conflict in Ukraine, examining its evolution and assessing its implications for the Crimean Peninsula and Russia’s relations with the West. The authors, Rajan Menon and Eugene Rumer, discuss key economic, political, and security challenges, historical precedents, likely outcomes, and propose policies for safeguarding U.S.-Russia relations. The conflict is seen as a symptom of larger geopolitical trends that require hard-headed planning for a new security architecture for Europe. The book underscores the crisis's impact on European security, NATO's future, and U.S. diplomatic efforts on issues like terrorism and nuclear proliferation[1][3][4].
Every day, experts from around the globe present their arguments for solving the world’s biggest problems. And every day, these experts disagree in small and large ways. At Foreign Policy, our approach is to share a wide range of opinions, side by side, day by day. But what if people could hear those arguments tested, in real time, under pressure from an opposing view–by an international cast of diplomats, journalists, academics and activists?
That’s the idea behind Counterpoint, a new debate show from Foreign Policy, in partnership with the Doha Forum—hosted by FP deputy editor Sasha Polakow-Suransky.
On this episode, Sasha explores the question: Should the West Pressure Ukraine to Negotiate an End to the War?
He’s joined by Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center and an assistant professor at Georgetown University, and Rajan Menon, the director of the grand strategy program at Defense Priorities and a senior research scholar at Columbia University.
Ones and Tooze 
