CoinDesk Podcast Network Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $1M as U.S.-China Seal Empty Trade Deal | Markets Daily
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May 8, 2025 
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and founder of Maelstrom Capital, offers bold predictions on Bitcoin's rise to $1 million by 2028. He dives into the complexities of U.S.-China trade talks and calls into question the Federal Reserve's relevance. Hayes breaks down his crypto portfolio, discusses the potential for an alt season comeback, and examines the cultural impact of meme coins. He also reflects on his personal journey after receiving a presidential pardon, sharing insights on redemption and navigating life's challenges post-conviction.
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Powell's Irrelevance, Bessant's Power
- The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's actions have become largely irrelevant in market dynamics.
- The real influence lies with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, whose moves and speeches shape market liquidity and sentiment.
More Dollars Drive Bitcoin Up
- The key factor for crypto's success is the increase of fiat dollars in circulation.
- More dollars in system mean higher Bitcoin prices regardless of inflation or dollar strength debates.
Bitcoin to $1M by 2028 Fundamentals
- Bitcoin's $1 million target by 2028 is a human focal point, not based on strict technical analysis.
- Growing U.S. debt, rising interest expense, and potential future money printing support this price trajectory.