Fed special: Rates held, Powell’s tell and market impact with Chaim Siegel
Jun 14, 2023
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Chaim Siegel, leader of the Fed Trader Investing Group, joins SA's Kim Khan to discuss the Fed's decision and its impact on the market. They analyze Powell's remarks, the stock market's response to the Fed's pause, and the discrepancy between rate expectations and the stock market's role.
The Federal Reserve's lenient approach to inflation can be seen as bullish for the stock market as it indicates potential for higher prices.
The market's positive response to Powell's confident outlook and mixed reaction to the Fed's decisions suggests a healthy and bullish trend.
Deep dives
Fed decision and outlook
In the podcast episode, the Federal Reserve's recent decision is discussed. The Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged, as expected. The dot plot indicated that there may be two rate hikes by the end of the year, and the projections showed higher GDP, lower unemployment, and higher inflation. The conversation highlighted the contrast between what Powell needs to do, which is to be more aggressive in addressing inflation, and what he is likely to do, which is not to be as aggressive. The discussion also emphasized that the Fed's approach of being lenient on inflation can be seen as bullish for the market, as inflation usually leads to higher prices in the stock market.
Impact of Fed's actions on the market
The podcast emphasized that the market's reaction to the Fed's decisions and statements is a significant factor to consider. It was noted that the market tends to respond to the Fed's Chairman's comments on the current market situation. In this case, Powell expressed confidence in the economy and provided a positive outlook. This led to a mixed reaction in the market, with some ups and downs, but overall a relatively stable response. The discussion also mentioned that the market's resilience and positive action, despite the expectation of more rate hikes, indicates a healthy and bullish trend.
Future outlook and market prediction
The podcast provided insights into the future outlook and market predictions. It was mentioned that there is optimism for the market in the second half of the year, with potential for strong earnings growth, particularly in the tech sector. The expectation is that earnings will rebound in Q3, supported by a strong economy and potential disinflationary trends. The conversation touched on the discrepancy between the Fed's projections and what the market is pricing in, suggesting that the market may be smarter in predicting rate cuts than the Fed. Overall, the sentiment expressed in the podcast was bullish, highlighting the positive market action and the potential for a strong market performance in the future.
Chaim Siegel, leader of the Fed Trader Investing Group, joins SA's Kim Khan for a breakdown of Wednesday’s Fed decision. What the hawkish pause means for the equity rally, why the market is skeptical about Jay Powell’s rate cut pronouncement, how jobless claims remain crucial and more.
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