Bloomberg Talks Goldman Sachs Vice Chair Rob Kaplan Talks Next Fed Chair
Dec 5, 2025
Robert Kaplan, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and now vice chair at Goldman Sachs, dives into the future of the Federal Reserve and potential candidates for Fed chair. He explains the sluggish labor market and highlights existing economic pressures. Kaplan discusses the delicate balance between inflation and employment amid political pressures on interest rates. He also explores the impact of AI on productivity and warns about the rapid pace of disruption affecting worker mobility and education needs.
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Labor Market Weakness Has Multiple Causes
- Robert Kaplan says the labor market is weaker and sluggish for several structural and policy reasons.
- He highlights tariffs, labor-force constraints, and the shutdown as key short-term headwinds affecting small businesses most.
Reiterate Fed Independence If You’re Chair
- Kaplan urges any prospective Fed chair to publicly commit to preserving the Fed’s independence in rate-setting.
- He advises candidates to demonstrate they will balance employment and inflation without political influence.
Fed Controls Short Rates, Markets Set Long Rates
- Kaplan notes the Fed controls the short end of the yield curve while markets set longer rates, which can blunt policy transmission.
- He points out that steepening curves show market rates barely moved despite Fed cuts, so credibility matters.