Australia votes— are our political parties on the nose?
May 1, 2025
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Join Paul Kelly, Editor-at-Large for The Australian, Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History at ANU, and Kim Carr, former Victorian Labor Senator, as they dissect the state of Australian politics. They tackle the identity crisis facing the Liberal Party and its struggle for voter support amidst rising independents. The conversation sheds light on the evolving political landscape, particularly the decline of traditional party loyalties and the crucial role of Muslim voters in influencing elections. A thought-provoking look at modern governance in Australia!
The rise of independents and minor parties signifies a significant fragmentation in Australian politics, challenging the traditional dominance of Labor and the Coalition.
A growing voter apathy and distrust in political institutions is prompting Australians to seek alternatives that better align with their values and concerns.
Deep dives
Change in Voting Dynamics
The political landscape in Australia has evolved significantly, especially from the historical dominance of the Labor Party and the Coalition. Recent elections have seen a three-way split in primary votes, with Labor, the Coalition, and minor parties or independents each securing about one-third of the vote, highlighting an unprecedented fragmentation. This shift, particularly seen during the 2022 election where Labor received just over 32% of the primary vote, shows a drastic change from previous decades when major parties consistently garnered 40-50%. Political challenges faced by traditional parties stem from the rise of diverse political identities and changing voter expectations, making it crucial for parties to adapt to these fluid dynamics.
Growing Professionalism Among Independents
The success of independent candidates and minor parties has grown remarkably, particularly among the well-organized Teal candidates, who are largely women with substantial resources and clear ideologies. These candidates have demonstrated a strategic approach to campaigning, effectively contesting traditional party strongholds and resulting in significant losses for the Coalition in the 2022 election. The decline of major party influence marks a watershed moment in Australian politics, as constituents are increasingly drawn to alternative voices that better reflect their values and concerns. This trend indicates a potential realignment in political representation, where independents could play a more prominent role in shaping future policies.
Apathy and Disillusionment With Politics
A growing sense of apathy and disillusionment among voters poses a significant challenge for the current political system in Australia. Reports indicate that a substantial portion of the electorate feels detached from political events, with surveys revealing that many citizens have little to no interest in the elections. This disengagement is exacerbated by a general mistrust in political institutions and leaders, leading to a perception that the system does not function effectively for the average citizen. Such sentiments have propelled citizens toward seeking alternatives, resulting in support for independent candidates who may offer fresh perspectives and solutions.
The Future of Major Political Parties
The traditional major parties face a crisis of identity as they grapple with decreasing voter loyalty and shifting electorate priorities. Labor's strategy of a small target approach during recent elections raised concerns about whether they are addressing the fundamental issues confronting voters, particularly among the working class. Meanwhile, the Coalition's failure to adapt and respond to these changes may hinder their future electoral prospects, with indications suggesting that without significant policy reevaluation, they risk further decline. The upcoming election is paramount for both parties, with the potential implications for governance and the political power dynamics within Australia.
This election has been described as a boring campaign, but with some fascinating contests. So just what is going on in the minds of voters as Australia heads to the polls this weekend?
Frank BongiornoProfessor of History, Australian National UniversityPresident, Council for the Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, and the Australian Historical AssociationAuthor, Dreamers and Schemers: A Political History of Australia, The Sex lives of Australians: a history
Paul KellyEditor-at-Large, The AustralianAuthor, Triumph and Demise: The Broken Promise of a Labor Generation and The March of Patriots: The Struggle for Modern Australia
Kim CarrLongest serving Victoria Labor Senator (1993 — 2022)Vice Chancellor's Professorial Fellow at Monash UniversityDirector of the Made in Australia Campaign LimitedAuthor, A Long March
Jo Dyer (host)Writer, literary curator and producer of theatre and filmFormer director, Adelaide Writers Week, former CEO, Sydney Writers FestivalIndependent candidate for Boothby at the 2022 federal electionAuthor, Burning Down the House: Reconstructing Modern Politics
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