The Joseph Carlson Show I Ran Valuation Analysis On The Most Popular Stocks
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Dec 8, 2025 Delve into the fascinating world of stock valuation with a focus on popular players like Mastercard and Meta, both labeled as having dislocated value. Explore Adobe's struggles against competition while being undervalued, and Amazon's cash flow uncertainties. Discover Nvidia's premium pricing amidst slowing growth and Uber's impressive free cash flow with disruption risks. The show also tackles Tesla's lofty expectations, Palantir's extreme valuation, and a surprising fail involving Waymo's robotaxi. Get insights on Paramount's hostile bid for Warner Bros and why Netflix remains an attractive option.
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Mastercard's Durable Growth Thesis
- Joseph Carlson argues Mastercard combines strong organic growth, low dilution, and operating leverage to boost free cash flow per share rapidly.
- He rates Mastercard as dislocated and attractive if its moat holds and growth continues.
Meta's Cash Flow Versus Stock-Based Pay
- Meta faces high stock-based compensation that materially reduces free cash flow per share despite strong revenue potential.
- Carlson sees Meta as a high-quality, dislocated buy if management slows employee expenses and CapEx.
Adobe Priced For Pessimism
- Adobe shows decelerating revenue but solid free cash flow and low dilution, making current sentiment-driven price drops notable.
- Carlson views Adobe as dramatically undervalued even under bear cases due to competition and AI risks priced in.