058. Can civil society get better at anticipating futures? Heather Hutchings, Danny Vannucchi and the International CS Centre

Summary

What is the difference between forecasting and foresight, as a skill and an area of work?

What are the pitfalls when international civil society organizations (ICSOs) apply crisis frameworks to trends that are actually longer-term, intersecting, and systemic?

Decolonization and diversity: how are these big current discussions and areas for taking action intersecting with what sometimes is called 'anticipatory capacity': the capacity to anticipate futures and know how to act in order to try to influence them?

In this NGO Soul+Strategy podcast episode, I interview consultants and former Amnesty International practitioners  Danny Vannucchi and Heather Hutchings, on anticipating the future of civil society operating space - the legal, political and normative space for CSOs to do their work. Their report, commissioned by the International Civil Society Centre (ICSC) as part of its long-term work on civic space, is titled: Anticipating Futures for Civil Society Operating Space.  

 ICSC's mission is to strengthen the impact and resilience of international civil society organizations to support people to change their world for the better. The Centre does this by convening civil society actors, offering training, research and other activities.

The Centre is planning further work on civil society's anticipatory capacity and is keen to get in touch with potential partners. Email Miriam Niehaus at ICSC: mniehaus@icscentre.org

 
Heather’s Bio:

• Consultant at Storm Consulting
• Former senior Advisor, Conflict and Organizational Development at Amnesty International

Danny’s Bio:

• Senior Strategy & Human Rights Consultant
• Senior Strategic Facilitator at GRID Impact
• Adjunct Professor at the University of California, Los Angeles
• Former director of Global Strategy & Impact at Amnesty International

We discuss: 

• Foresight and forecasting are two different concepts, yet they easily get misunderstood in civil society (CS): forecasting is about the mitigation of risk and is a more pragmatic concern. Foresight is about imagining different futures, shaping visions of the future, and forging strategies to shape the future that emerges. To be ahead of trends, in other words.
• Crises can keep civil society in a ‘defensive crouch’, in a reactive mode. Crisis management mode is a well-honed capacity in civil society, but we do not focus enough on the trends underlying those crises. 
• Due to a lack of anticipatory capacity within civil society, we miss opportunities to make use of or shape longer-term trends 
• CS has sufficient awareness of macro trends, but we fail to make this knowledge actionable; what are the reasons do decision-makers not act on the data on trends that is offered to them?
• Future scanning is actually often primarily about good strategy
• Civil society collectively can improve its anticipatory capacity by pooling resources 

Quotes: 

“How to not sit at the table laid out by others, but rather, invite others to sit at your own table – that is the challenge”

“Crisis response is an important part of NGOS’ public relations