Raoul Pal: The Journey Man

URGENT: The Everything Code UPDATE ft. Julien Bittel

76 snips
Sep 25, 2025
Guest
Julien Bittel
In this engaging discussion, Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at GMI and co-author of the Everything Code thesis, dives deep into the macroeconomic forces that are set to shape future markets. He and Raoul Pal explore why hyperconcentration in investments is becoming crucial, the implications of rising public debt, and the influence of liquidity on asset prices. They also correlate inflation trends with business cycles and predict continued expansion in the economy. Julien even highlights a fascinating comparison of crypto adoption speeds with the internet!
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INSIGHT

Debasement Is The Invisible Return Drag

  • Global governments and central banks are debasing currency at an effective ~8% per year, creating a hidden erosion of fiat value.
  • Combined with inflation this produces an ~11% hurdle rate investors must beat to avoid getting poorer.
INSIGHT

The Magic Formula For GDP

  • Trend GDP growth equals population growth plus productivity growth plus debt growth, and trend GDP is now ~2%.
  • Falling working-age population and slowing productivity explain secular GDP decline and rising debt burden.
INSIGHT

Demographics As The Root Macro Force

  • Demographics drive the labor force participation rate with a long lead and thus dictate fiscal pressure and debt dynamics.
  • Aging populations force governments to increase debt to offset private-sector deleveraging.
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