Sensemaker What does Russia’s latest offensive in Ukraine tell us about the prospect of peace?
Dec 9, 2025
In this discussion, Liz Cookman, Europe correspondent for The Observer, shares insights from the front lines of Ukraine, particularly around the contested city of Pokrovsk. Keir Giles, a military expert from Chatham House, provides analysis of Russia's manpower issues and the strategic implications of their recent advances. They explore the high cost of Russian attacks, the significance of territorial control for Ukraine's future negotiations, and how Russia's small territorial gains are used for shaping public perception. A deep dive into the potential paths to peace and geopolitical realities awaits.
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Pokrovsk’s Symbolic Weight
- Pokrovsk's capture is tactically small but symbolically significant in Russia's narrative of progress.
- Liz Cookman warns the city fell after an 18-month grind leaving the population near 1,000 and heavy costs.
High Cost, Limited Gains
- Russia's territorial gains have come at huge human cost with thousands of soldiers lost for little land.
- Keir Giles and Liz Cookman stress these losses mean gains are costly and not decisive.
Slow Pace Makes Victory Unlikely
- Russia's incremental land gains are real but extremely slow, implying military victory could take years or decades.
- Keir Giles highlights that pace makes negotiated outcomes more likely than outright conquest.