Macro Minute / Leadoff Morning Note

Air date: February 25, 2025. This episode explores whether markets are currently disregarding the influence of figures like President Trump and Elon Musk, noting that while they are set aside for now due to their focus on public image, future repositioning is likely. The discussion highlights market assumptions about Trump's asset-price sensitivity and the impact of the 'America First Investment Policy' memo in raising geopolitical and economic uncertainties. The podcast details a fully invested portfolio strategy favoring risk assets such as stocks, gold, and Bitcoin driven by global liquidity trends, along with quantitative signals suggesting short-term bearishness for gold and China and oversold conditions in major indices. It also outlines medium- and long-term portfolio positioning, warning of increased crash risks and stagflationary pressures, while identifying emerging opportunities from sustained liquidity. A client question on the state of the economy is answered with cautious optimism despite rising policy and economic risks.