Marketplace All-in-One What will the job market hold in 2026?
Dec 18, 2025
Nova Safo, a Marketplace correspondent specializing in labor markets, dives into the evolving job landscape as we approach 2026. She discusses the cooling post-COVID hiring trends and the emerging low-hire, low-fire dynamic influenced by immigration limits and tariffs. Insightful predictions highlight that tax and rate cuts may invigorate hiring later in the year. The conversation also touches on the impact of AI on white-collar jobs and how NASDAQ's push for near 24/7 trading reflects growing demand in the market.
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Labor Market Has Cooled To Low-Hire Norm
- The post-COVID hiring spree has cooled into a 'low-hire, low-fire' labor market.
- Tariffs, immigration limits, and retirements are combining to slow job creation into 2026.
Tariffs And Immigration Restrain Hiring
- Tariff uncertainty and slower immigration are restricting employers from expanding payrolls this year.
- Economists expect those tariff effects to ripple through businesses into early 2026 before firms reassess hiring.
Policy Moves Could Spur Later 2026 Hiring
- Tax cuts and expected Fed rate cuts could boost consumer and business spending next year.
- That stimulus may lift hiring in the second half of 2026 if firms move past tariff uncertainty.