Real Vision: Finance & Investing A Tale of a Textbook Turnaround Setup
Jul 20, 2022
Tony Greer, Editor of the Morning Navigator Newsletter, shares his keen insights on market dynamics and commodities. He discusses the surprising revival of oil prices, with WTI crude topping $104, amid signs of a cooling housing market. Greer dives into behavioral trading and the impact of Federal Reserve policies, while also touching on upcoming recession predictions from Chen Zhao. They explore the intricacies of energy supply challenges and overall market sentiments, shedding light on weathering economic storms with strategic investments.
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Positioning Fuels A Retracement Rally
- Markets may be staging a retracement rally because positioning is extremely low after a sharp sell-off.
- Tony Greer sees early signs of risk-on as many assets cross back above their 50-day moving averages.
Use Oil Backwardation As A Low-Risk Entry
- Consider starting commodity exposure with crude oil calendar trades to capture positive carry from backwardation.
- Use roll yield (front-month premium) to reduce downside while seeking a flat-price rally, Greer suggests.
Market Priced Demand Too Far Down
- Greer argues markets have repriced demand to near zero, overshooting a realistic recession scenario.
- He thinks physical tightness in fuels and elevated crack spreads contradict a full economic stop.