Cheap Energy Helping to Avoid Recession? with Doomberg
May 3, 2024
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Financial analyst Doomberg discusses how geopolitical tensions are inflating oil prices, the impact on energy markets, the US energy miracle, and the potential role of low energy prices in preventing a recession. The conversation also touches on the interconnected nature of energy markets, speculation on World War III, and the future of energy in the digital age.
Having access to cheap hydrocarbons is boosting GDP and economic activity in the US despite the belief that a spike in oil prices leads to recession.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe present a dangerous global scenario, highlighting the disconnect in perceiving imminent risks.
Deep dives
Impact of Abundance of Hydrocarbons on US Economy
The US is experiencing an abundance of cheap, clean-burning hydrocarbons, producing 20% of the world's oil and 30% of natural gas. Despite the belief that a spike in oil prices leads to recession, having access to cheap hydrocarbons is boosting GDP and economic activity in the US. Massive fiscal stimulus and interest payments are supporting this trend, with the world's largest supply of cheap hydrocarbons contributing to economic growth.
Geopolitical Risks Dominating Market Action
Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East and Europe, have been dominating market actions in 2024. The delicate dance between Israel and Iran, along with broader risks involving Russia, Ukraine, and potential conflicts in Asia, present a dangerous global scenario. The lack of attention in Western media highlights the disconnect in perceiving the imminent risks, which could lead to significant escalations.
Underestimating Geopolitical Foes and Consequences of War
The current geopolitical landscape reveals a tendency to underestimate global adversaries and overestimate one's capabilities. The US faces challenges in its approach to conflicts like the war in Ukraine, leading to unforeseen consequences. The impacts of past military involvements in regions like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria underscore the need for a more comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of war.
Energy Needs and Transformative Technologies
The rise of transformative technologies like AI, cloud computing, and blockchain is reshaping energy requirements. Data centers fueled by AI demand significant power, driving the need for innovative energy solutions. The evolving energy landscape calls for decentralized grids tailored to meet the demands of data center developments, creating opportunities for reimagining energy infrastructures in the face of technological advancements.
On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure to welcome back Doomberg.
During our conversation we spoke about the current geopolitical situation, why this is highly inflating oil prices, how oil would be $50 without war, in-depth analysis of the gas markets, the US energy miracle and more. I hope you enjoy!
0:00 - Introduction 2:57 - What does the current geopolitical factors mean? 6:04 - How have we gotten into the geopolitical mess? 8:37 - Missiles and drones are a positive outcome? 10:37 - Who are the good guys? 12:17 - What does this mean for energy? 15:54 - Could oil be lower than $55 with no oil? 20:02 - Is there a tight gas market? 23:21 - Will prices for gas go lower? 27:30 - What happens during a bifurcation of the global economy? 28:04 - Low energy help prevent recession? 31:14 - What impact will data centres have on electricity? 34:59 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?
The group started writing Doomberg in May of 2021 to highlight the fundamentals missing from many economic and policy decisions, and it quickly grew to be one of the most widely read finance newsletters on Substack.
This publication is their passion, and the content is borne out of the team’s deep experience in heavy industry, private equity, and the hard sciences. Family offices and c-suite executives hired them to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems – they operate as though their subscribers share those same expectations.
Read their full bio here - https://doomberg.substack.com/about