Risky Bulletin Between Two Nerds: The limits of cyber power
Sep 15, 2025
Explore the complexities of cyber power and its historical implications, reflecting on the evolution of cyber conflict. Discover the disconnect between technological capabilities and strategic outcomes, using sports analogies to illustrate adaptability. Compare the cyber strategies of the U.S., China, Russia, and North Korea, each tailored to their unique goals. Delve into the impact of online platforms on political discourse and how narratives surrounding the Ukraine conflict shape perceptions on both sides of the Atlantic.
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Technical Capability ≠ Strategic Power
- Dave Aitel's technical metrics (exploitation, implantation, exfiltration, analysis) measure capability rather than state impact.
- Technical excellence doesn't equal strategic influence without application and context.
Toyota War Analogy For Context
- The Grugq uses the 'Toyota war' to show context wins over raw hardware.
- Improvised, maintainable tools often outperform technically superior but unsuited equipment.
Metrics Compare Tools, Not Effects
- Capability metrics (persistence, sourcing, networking) help compare agencies technically.
- They don't show how capabilities are applied or whether they advance state goals.