Dynasty Nerds Podcast | Dynasty Fantasy Football Important Stats That PREDICT Future Fantasy Football Production! Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast EP. 788
Feb 4, 2026
They lay out simple statistical thresholds that predict long-term fantasy success at each position. You hear the 17 PPG quarterback cutoff, a 30-reception rule for early running back viability, a 500-yard rookie mark for wide receivers, and a top-six-by-year-two benchmark for elite tight ends. They also flag recent players who pass or fail these predictive tests and debate roster moves based on the data.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Early 17 PPG Predicts Franchise QBs
- Quarterbacks who hit 17 PPG in one of their first two 8+ game seasons become cornerstone QBs about two-thirds of the time.
- Garret Price's historical cutoff correlates 17 PPG (early) → career ~15 PPG plus at least one 19+ PPG season for many top QBs.
Wait One Year For New QBs; Target Shuck/Ward
- Monitor 2024–25 quarterbacks' 8+ game seasons before labeling them; some still have a year to clear the 17 PPG threshold.
- Prioritize Tyler Shuck and Cam Ward as buy targets among rookies who showed promising second-half growth.
30 Early Receptions Are A Must For RBs
- Running backs who fail to reach 30 receptions in one of their first two seasons almost never become long-term fantasy hits.
- Garret Price found only ~4.8% of RBs without 30 early catches later achieved a career 12 PPG and a 15+ peak season.