Trump's Primary Challengers Are Running Out of Time
Dec 19, 2023
01:07:01
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Discussion on impeachment, Senate negotiations, and poll data. Focus on concessions, polling on immigration and national security, and immigration debates in the upcoming election. Analysis of Trump's chances in the Republican primary and the significance of endorsements. Data analysis on off-year elections and high voter turnout.
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Quick takeaways
High turnout in off-year elections is driven by factors such as political engagement, issue salience, and expanded access to early voting and mail-in ballots.
Endorsements by political figures have varying impacts on voter turnout and support depending on the state and specific race, with former President Trump's endorsements carrying significant weight within the Republican Party.
Demographic factors, including race and education, contribute to turnout rates, with suburban and exurban areas showing higher turnout compared to urban areas.
Deep dives
High Turnout in Off-Year Elections
Turnout in off-year elections has remained high in recent years, with 2023 showing comparable rates to previous off-year elections. Factors contributing to this trend include increased political engagement, expanded access to mail-in and early voting, and a high level of political awareness among voters. The high turnout could also be attributed to the impact of specific issues or candidates on the ballot, such as the abortion measure in Ohio. Suburban and exurban areas generally showed higher turnout rates compared to urban areas, highlighting a potential shift in voter behavior.
Endorsements and Their Impact
Endorsements by political figures can have some impact on voter turnout and support, particularly in competitive races. However, the influence of endorsements may vary depending on the state and specific race. In the 2023 elections, endorsements seemed to make a difference in Ohio, where high turnout was observed in counties that voted in favor of an abortion measure. It is important to note that overall, endorsements tended to lean heavily towards former President Trump, indicating his continued strong support within the Republican Party.
Impact of Demographics on Turnout
Demographic factors, such as race and education, played a role in determining turnout rates in the 2023 elections. Suburban and exurban areas showed higher turnout compared to urban areas, indicating a potential shift in political engagement. While race was a significant factor in turnout, with some predominantly black and Latino areas exhibiting lower rates, the correlation between turnout and urbanicity was the most pronounced. Living in a city, regardless of other demographic factors, appeared to contribute to lower turnout rates.
Implications for 2024
The high and varying turnout rates in the 2023 elections provide insights for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The continuation of high turnout suggests increased political engagement and consistent participation among voters, influenced by factors such as specific issues on the ballot. Understanding the impact of endorsements and demographic trends can help inform campaign strategies and messaging. Additionally, the lower turnout observed in urban areas highlights the potential challenges for mobilizing voters in these regions in future elections.
Conclusion
The 2023 off-year elections demonstrated the continued trend of high turnout rates, driven by various factors such as political engagement and issue salience. Suburban and exurban areas saw higher turnout compared to urban areas, and endorsements played a role in certain races. Demographic factors, such as race and education, contributed to variations in turnout rates. These findings provide valuable insights into voter behavior and can inform future campaign strategies and efforts to mobilize voters.
The U.S. House adjourned for the holidays last week after voting along party lines to authorize an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. The Senate is delaying its holiday recess as negotiators try to hash out a deal that would include aid to Ukraine and Israel as well as funding for border security and possible changes to asylum law.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew heads to Washington to discuss how Congress is closing out the year and what Americans think about it. They also mark just four weeks until the Iowa caucuses and look at what the data says about how much the polls have historically moved during the final stretch before caucus day.
And they wrap up by taking stock of how likely Americans were to vote in 2023. Since Trump was elected in 2016, the country has been in an era of historically high turnout in elections. Did that continue this year, and does that portend anything for next year?