The Milk Road Show Bitcoin Isn’t Weak: The Market Structure Has Changed w/ Matt Crosby
Dec 24, 2025
This time, onchain analyst Matt Crosby shares his insights into Bitcoin's surprising movements and what led him to rethink his bullish stance. He explores the impact of ETFs and institutional demand on market volatility. Crosby highlights the significance of long-term holder selling and how it reshapes market cycles. He also dives into strategies for identifying market bottoms and compares Bitcoin's performance against gold. With macroeconomic factors hinting at a stronger 2026, he maps out potential price targets for both BTC and ETH. A must-listen for crypto enthusiasts!
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A Rare Public Change Of Mind
- Matt rarely changes his public thesis but did so in 2025 after on-chain data diverged from expectations.
- He emphasizes reacting to data and admits mistakes rather than sticking to prior convictions.
Sustained Whale Selling Changed The Cycle
- Bitcoin's 2025 price action shows sustained long-term holder selling unlike prior cycles.
- That steady sell pressure flattened volatility and limited upside despite institutional ETF demand.
ETFs Made Selling Less Painful
- ETFs and treasury buyers created passive, reliable demand that let long-term holders scale out without crushing price.
- That structural demand turned big, fast retail rallies into slower, dampened cycles.