BJKS Podcast 100. Tom Chivers: Thomas Bayes, Bayesian statistics, and science journalism
Aug 16, 2024
Tom Chivers is a prominent science journalist and author, well-known for his expertise in applied statistics and Bayesian methods. He discusses his new book that explores the legacy of Thomas Bayes and the intricacies of Bayesian statistics. Chivers delves into how these concepts can help address the replication crisis in science. He shares insights from his journey into journalism, the philosophical debates around probability, and the evolution of scientific models, while emphasizing the critical thinking necessary for interpreting data.
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Bayes's Obscure Life
- Thomas Bayes's biographical details are surprisingly scarce, even his birth year is uncertain.
- He came from a wealthy non-conformist family, wrote a theological work, and defended Newton's calculus.
Bayes's Theorem's Impact
- Early probability theory, developed by Pascal and Fermat, focused on likelihood of results given a hypothesis.
- Bayes's key insight was inverting this: determining a hypothesis's likelihood given observed results.
Price: The First Bayesian
- Richard Price, Bayes's friend, applied Bayes's theorem to real-world problems and even debated its theological implications with David Hume.
- Price added practical applications to Bayes's purely theoretical work, becoming the first 'Bayesian'.
