Tom Chivers is a prominent science journalist and author, well-known for his expertise in applied statistics and Bayesian methods. He discusses his new book that explores the legacy of Thomas Bayes and the intricacies of Bayesian statistics. Chivers delves into how these concepts can help address the replication crisis in science. He shares insights from his journey into journalism, the philosophical debates around probability, and the evolution of scientific models, while emphasizing the critical thinking necessary for interpreting data.
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Bayes's Obscure Life
Thomas Bayes's biographical details are surprisingly scarce, even his birth year is uncertain.
He came from a wealthy non-conformist family, wrote a theological work, and defended Newton's calculus.
insights INSIGHT
Bayes's Theorem's Impact
Early probability theory, developed by Pascal and Fermat, focused on likelihood of results given a hypothesis.
Bayes's key insight was inverting this: determining a hypothesis's likelihood given observed results.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Price: The First Bayesian
Richard Price, Bayes's friend, applied Bayes's theorem to real-world problems and even debated its theological implications with David Hume.
Price added practical applications to Bayes's purely theoretical work, becoming the first 'Bayesian'.
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Divine Benevolence : Or, an Attempt to Prove That the Principal End of the Divine Providence and Government Is the Happiness of His Creatures
Divine Benevolence : Or, an Attempt to Prove That the Principal End of the Divine Providence and Government Is the Happiness of His Creatures
Thomas Bayes
Thomas Bayes' "Divine Benevolence" is a theological work exploring the problem of evil within a framework of divine providence. Bayes attempts to reconcile the existence of suffering and imperfection in the world with the concept of a benevolent and omnipotent God. The book delves into philosophical arguments and theological reasoning to address this age-old question. It reflects the intellectual and religious climate of 18th-century England, where debates about faith and reason were prominent. While less known than his contributions to mathematics, this work showcases Bayes' engagement with broader philosophical and theological issues.
An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances
An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances
Thomas Bayes
Thomas Bayes' "An Essay towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances" is a foundational work in probability theory. Published posthumously by Richard Price, the essay introduces Bayes' theorem, a crucial concept for calculating conditional probabilities. This theorem allows for the updating of beliefs based on new evidence, a cornerstone of Bayesian inference. The essay's impact on statistics and related fields has been immense, shaping how we approach uncertainty and make inferences from data. Its influence extends to various disciplines, including science, technology, and decision-making. The essay's elegant mathematical formulation and profound implications continue to inspire research and applications today.
The Reverend Thomas Bayes, FRS: a biography to celebrate the tercentenary of his birth
The Reverend Thomas Bayes, FRS: a biography to celebrate the tercentenary of his birth
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David Bellhouse
Bad pharma
how drug companies mislead doctors and harm patients
Ben Goldacre
In 'Bad Pharma', Ben Goldacre argues that the pharmaceutical industry systematically distorts medical evidence, leading to flawed clinical trials, biased medical education, and harmful prescribing practices. He details issues such as the withholding of negative data, regulatory capture, and the influence of pharmaceutical companies on medical research and education. Goldacre calls for greater transparency and regulation to address these problems and improve patient care.
Bad Science
Ben Goldacre
In 'Bad Science,' Ben Goldacre critiques the current state of science as presented to the public, focusing on the misrepresentation of science by the media, the flaws in alternative therapies, and the misleading practices of pharmaceutical companies. The book explains basic scientific principles, such as the placebo effect, regression to the mean, and the importance of randomized and double-blinded trials. Goldacre also discusses cognitive biases, the role of media in promoting public misunderstanding of science, and the ethical issues in drug development and advertising. Written in an engaging and humorous style, the book aims to help readers differentiate between good and bad science practices.
Everything Is Predictable
How Bayes’ Remarkable Theorem Explains the World
George Orwell
Piranesi
Susanna Clarke
In *Piranesi*, the protagonist lives in a world called the House, a labyrinthine structure filled with thousands of statues, tides that surge through staircases, and clouds in the upper halls. Through his meticulous journals, Piranesi reconstructs the story of his arrival and explores the House, only to discover messages indicating the presence of another person. As he delves deeper, he uncovers secrets and confronts the possibility of a world beyond his known reality.
Tom Chivers is a journalist who writes a lot about science and applied statistics. We talk about his new book on Bayesian statistics, the biography of Thomas Bayes, the history of probability theory, how Bayes can help with the replication crisis, how Tom became a journalist, and much more.
BJKS Podcast is a podcast about neuroscience, psychology, and anything vaguely related, hosted by Benjamin James Kuper-Smith.
Timestamps 0:00:00: Tom's book about Bayes & Bayesian statistics relates to many of my previous episodes and much of my own research 0:03:12: A brief biography of Thomas Bayes (about whom very little is known) 0:11:00: The history of probability theory 0:36:23: Bayesian songs 0:43:17: Bayes & the replication crisis 0:57:27: How Tom got into science journalism 1:08:32: A book or paper more people should read 1:10:05: Something Tom wishes he'd learnt sooner 1:14:36: Advice for PhD students/postdocs/people in a transition period
Bayes (1731). Divine benevolence, or an attempt to prove that the principal end of the divine providence and government is the happiness of his creatures. Being an answer to a pamphlet entitled Divine Rectitude or an inquiry concerning the moral perfections of the deity with a refutation of the notions therein advanced concerning beauty and order, the reason of punishment and the necessity of a state of trial antecedent to perfect happiness. Bayes (1763). An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Bellhouse (2004). The Reverend Thomas Bayes, FRS: a biography to celebrate the tercentenary of his birth. Project Euclid. Bem (2011). Feeling the future: experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on cognition and affect. Journal of personality and social psychology. Chivers (2024). Everything is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World. Chivers & Chivers (2021). How to read numbers: A guide to statistics in the news (and knowing when to trust them). Chivers (2019). The Rationalist's Guide to the Galaxy: Superintelligent AI and the Geeks Who Are Trying to Save Humanity's Future. Clarke [not Black, as Tom said] (2020). Piranesi. Goldacre (2009). Bad science. Goldacre (2014). Bad pharma: how drug companies mislead doctors and harm patients. Simmons, Nelson & Simonsohn (2011). False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant. Psychological Science.
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